The Dunn market...and the Krivsky market...

[Cyclone792]

The more I think about a potential Dunn trade, the more I believe that the chances of Dunn actually being dealt this season are actually fairly low. I've taken a look at a bunch of teams in the race who may be able to use Dunn, and I actually don't see many fits at all. And of the teams who actually do have a great fit, their organization isn't the type to value a player of his skill set.

• I don't see the Reds dealing Dunn to an NL Central team. I could be wrong, but I just don't see that type of major deal happening between division rivals.
• The White Sox and Orioles are falling apart. Scratch them off the list.
• The Red Sox need a center fielder, not so much a corner outfielder (unless the corner outfielder is also a great defensive player whereby they'd shift Drew to center field). Unless Ortiz and/or Ramirez end up with a major injury, I don't see Dunn going to Boston.
• The Tigers need bullpen help.
• The Indians need all sorts of pitching help, both in the rotation and in the bullpen.
• The Mariners offense isn't great shakes, but they need pitching and lots of it.
• The Phillies need all sorts of pitching help.
• The Mets already have Moises Alou and Shawn Green.

So who does that leave? The Dodgers, the Angels, the Padres, the Athletics, the Yankees, and the Braves?

The Dodgers may have a nice fit for Dunn. The problem is Dunn just isn't their type of player. The Dodgers used to maintain a front office that would have salivated over Dunn, but they managed to run those guys right out of town.

As for the Angels, they just got Garret Anderson back. It won't matter to them that Anderson has a lousy .265 on-base percentage, because Anderson is a proven Angel veteran. Stoneman won't have the stones to ante up for Dunn, and the Angels will be content with whatever Anderson provides. Plus, as long as Reggie Willits keeps on putting up a .400 on-base percentage in left field, the Angels may not need Dunn as much as some other people think they need him.

FWIW, if I've seen Ervin Santana's name on this forum once, I've seen it 1,000 times. As far as I'm concerned, Santana can stay in California because I have very little interest in him as a pitcher if the Angels actually do pony up an offer.

The Braves may be in on Dunn, but I have a sneaky feeling that Griffey could be a better fit for Atlanta than Dunn. Atlanta is one of the few places I could see Griffey waiving his no-trade clause for, and he'd presumably cost less than Dunn insofar as a return goes.

The Padres could use his bat, and they have an organization that would appreciate the type of bat Dunn provides. The problem is they could be petrified of Dunn's defense out in Petco, and it's one of a few stadiums where that fear could be legitimate. Peavy and Young accumulate nice strikeout numbers, but the rest of their rotation relies heavily on the San Diego defense.

The A's are in the same boat as the Padres; their strength has been their defense, and their pitching staff strikes out even less guys than San Diego's. I'm sure Beane would love to have Dunn, especially at a bargain price, but I'm not sure I see the fit here. Then again depending on the type of return Krivsky is asking, Beane could take Dunn and run, then work out a fit later. In a weird way, I actually see the A's as being the #2 potential suitor for Dunn right now.

And lastly, the Yankees, who I see as the #1 potential suitor for Dunn right now. Of course, the Yankees' problem is they could use more pitching rather than more offense, and I suspect that they'll go after pitching first and foremost. But if they can't find pitching, or if they're not happy with whatever pitching they do land, and if Giambi talked himself into not playing again in 2007, then I could see Yankees clamoring for Dunn as their big time acquisition this season.

Again, though, that's just my feeling on the Dunn take. If Krivsky wants to get rid of Dunn at whatever cost, he'll likely be gone. If Krivsky is actually looking for a legitimate return for Dunn, I envision Dunn being in a Reds uniform still on August 1st.

To me, guys like Kyle Lohse and David Weathers have a bunch of potential fits out there, because a lot of teams need pitching badly. If I'm Wayne Krivsky, I'm dangling Lohse and Weathers out there above everyone's heads trying to find some hidden gem.

[M2]

Cyclone, I'd add the Indians, Tigers and Mets to the list.

The Indians and Tigers may want pitching, but wanting it and getting it are two different things. Meanwhile both clubs have got gaping holes in LF. Minnesota's back above .500 too and they've got a gaping LF hole as well. I'll invoke Rolling Stones theory here. You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find you get what you need. These clubs need what Dunn's got. One more big bat might be enough to separate these clubs from the rest of the pack.

In particular the Tigers lack LH power. The Yankees, bizarre as it is to say, are short on LH power too.

The Red Sox, have nowhere for Dunn to play with Manny, Papi and Youk on board.

The Angels can try to bleed something out of Garret Anderson, but that's an awfully weak lineup.

I don't buy into the notion that the A's should fear Dunn's glove. It's simply not that much impact on the downside. Plus, Shannon Stewart's a butcher with a popgun arm in LF. If Dunn's a downgrade there, it's only by a tiny amount.

The Padres need offense. The Dodgers need offense. There comes a time when a team has to recognize its main weakness. Though the Dodgers could be stubborn enough not to address an obvious need. Also, they'd need to mentally punt on Nomar and either decide to move Dunn or Luis Gonzalez to first base without first opting for James Loney (I'm fighting back the laughter at the notion of Loney being viewed as a savior, but it could happen) before they'd get serious about a deal.

The problem with the NL Central is that the only team that's playing meaningful games is six deep in the OF.

The Mets aren't scoring of late and if Alou won't be back soon enough or if Carlos Delgado can't get his act together or if none of the options on the farm are ready then I'd expect Omar Minaya to get into the market for an big bat.

I agree Jr. makes more sense in Atlanta.

Dunn could add a lot of gusto to a lot of teams. Obviously you never know what ideas are kicking around in the skulls of various baseball execs, but I'd say he'd be a difference maker for a lot of contending teams.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by M2

Dunn could add a lot of gusto to a lot of teams. Obviously you never know what ideas are kicking around in the skulls of various baseball execs, but I'd say he'd be a difference maker for a lot of contending teams.

Oh I definitely agree with you. I'm just actually not very confident that many of the teams that could really use him are actually able to recognize that they'd be able to really use him.

For one reason or another, Dunn seems to be undervalued within a large portion of the baseball community. I have no idea how true those Reds/Angels rumors were, but if the Angels wouldn't even be willing to part with Kendrick for Dunn straight up, then it really makes me wonder if the Angels have any idea on Dunn's actual value. The Angels could definitely use him, and they've got the young talent to offer, but coming from an organization that has lived and died with a batting average driven offense for years, I'm not sure the Angels actually recognize Dunn's value.

Heck, I'm not even sure if Krivsky and the Reds themselves understand Dunn's value.

These are the main reasons why I'm sort of placing the Yankees and A's as frontrunners for Dunn, if he's moved. For some reason, I could envision the Yankees sending a bunch of forgettable pieces over for Dunn, just as they did with Abreu and Philly last season. I could also envision Beane recognizing the market undervaluing Dunn and scooping him up for a less-than-ideal return for the Reds. Neither of those two scenarios has me thrilled in the least bit.

If Krivsky is hellbent on trading Dunn, then my hope is teams such as the Tigers, Indians, and Mets jump into the fray.

It will be interesting to see what Headley does in San Diego and how the Padres view his performance in the coming weeks. I see the Headley promotion as the Padres trying to figure out if he'll be enough of an offensive addition, and how he plays could be a major factor in how serious they get in the Dunn running. If Headley falls on his face, San Diego could become a legitimate match.

[M2]

Oh the Headley Lamarr jokes we could make if the Padres and Reds got that deal together.

Where's my froggy?

[flyer85]

I think if he is dealt it will be the A's. Beane seems to have a feel what other GMs like and he is the master of three way deal. Like when he acquired Larngerhans so h could deal for Snelling

[bucksfan2]

This is just a question on whether it could happen. I was curious if anyone thinks the reds could ship Dunn Detroit for Morath and Zumaya. I know Zumaya is on the DL right now but both of those players would definatly help the reds.

[CrackerJack]

Some guy "e-mailed" Greg Doyel today on-air as I was out going to lunch, and said that per "his source," Dunn "has been traded" to the Padres for a reliever (has a .81 era in 22 ML innings) and a AAA starter (who was recently demoted and had very average stuff/minor league #'s) and that they would be announcing it later today.

I am totally forgetting the names as they were foreign to me for the most part, but if someone mentioned them, I would remember...or if anyone else heard it here also.

It sounded like a pretty typical Krivsky trade - IOW not so good.

[M2]

Originally Posted by CrackerJack

Some guy "e-mailed" Greg Doyel today on-air as I was out going to lunch, and said that per "his source," Dunn "has been traded" to the Padres for a reliever (has a .81 era in 22 ML innings) and a AAA starter (who was recently demoted and had very average stuff/minor league #'s) and that they would be announcing it later today.

I am totally forgetting the names as they were foreign to me for the most part, but if someone mentioned them, I would remember...or if anyone else heard it here also.

It sounded like a pretty typical Krivsky trade - IOW not so good.

That would be Hampson and Hensley. If Krivsky made that deal, I'd need to take a serious break from rooting for the Reds.

[Red Leader]

Originally Posted by M2

That would be Hampson and Hensley. If Krivsky made that deal, I need to take a serious break from rooting for the Reds.

Werd.

If Krivsky makes that deal this franchise might as well trade Griffey, Weathers, Harang, Arroyo, Hatteberg, Bailey and Votto because we won't be competing during their careers.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by M2

That would be Hampson and Hensley. If Krivsky made that deal, I'd need to take a serious break from rooting for the Reds.

One of my buddies sent me a message earlier in the day about the rumor. He mentioned it was being reported as a "weak rumor" on the radio. I told him to hope that it remains simply a weak rumor and nothing more.

Trading Dunn for Hampson and Hensley would be a monumental disaster of absolute epic proportions.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

One of my buddies sent me a message earlier in the day about the rumor. He mentioned it was being reported as a "weak rumor" on the radio. I told him to hope that it remains simply a weak rumor and nothing more.

Trading Dunn for Hampson and Hensley would be a monumental disaster of absolute epic proportions.

We'd certainly have a new definition of what to call "The Trade."

[CrackerJack]

Yeah, those were the names - and yes it was a fairly "weak rumor" according to them. Not sure where people come up with this stuff.

That said, it sounds all too believeable after some of the moves made in the last year or so. I surely hope it's not true.

[Jaycint]

Originally Posted by M2

We'd certainly have a new definition of what to call "The Trade."

Yeah this would blast Kearns and Lopez right out of the universe of bad deals. Until this is announced I will try and force myself to believe Krivsky can't be that incompetent.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Jaycint

Yeah this would blast Kearns and Lopez right out of the universe of bad deals. Until this is announced I will try and force myself to believe Krivsky can't be that incompetent.

Same here.

[Jaycint]

FWIW here is what I posted on another thread as my bare essentials I would want in return for Dunn:

As for the value most here think we should get in return for Dunn, I can't speak for everyone but my personal view is this would be fair:

1. I want a top three prospect from whichever organization we do the deal with. Position of this player isn't really of primary importance to me, I just want value in return if I'm giving up value. My worst nightmare in this whole Dunn saga is a quantity for quality deal where we get back a bunch of dreck that is supposed to overwhelm us in numbers.

2. Along with #1 I want either a steady (if not spectacular) relief arm or back of the rotation guy.

If I can't get 1 AND 2 then I don't deal Dunn at all. Pony up and pay him next year, sure it's a lot of money but what he brings to the table isn't easily replaced IMO.

Like I said above and will stand by, if you can't get at least that, you don't trade him.