Buy low, sell high. It's time to shop...Brandon Phillips

[GAC]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

I don't know if I think we wouldn't get much, but I have to wonder when do we start allowing ourselves to have a player long term who helps us now and for the next 5-7 years? Otherwise, it's always just more rebuilding.

Yep.

I'm not saying the guy is untradeable or that I would refuse to listen to offers; but that I don't see the return much more then pitching prospects out of someone's farm system.

The problem is finding that "match".... #1 - is the team that may be interested in BP have what we want? #2 - How bad do they feel they want him because it better be a high level prospect(s).

If you were that team, would you trade away a Homer Bailey for a Brandon Phillips?

I look at the tightness of this pitching market, and that teams are even reluctant to let high level prospects go. Even as "unprovens" they are like gold, and I think teams would be apprehensive about doing so for a Phillips. Maybe for the likes of a Dunn. And no...I'm not advocating trading Adam.

[M2]

Originally Posted by 15fan

I'm not suggesting the Reds give away Phillips. I like him too. But his value's just about as high as it's ever going to be.

So let's see what the market is.

I like the idea better in theory than practice. I'm a build-up-the-middle sort and Phillips is a keeper in my eyes. In fact, I think he's the linchpin position player on this team.

Plus, my guess is Brandon Phillips is going to be a very good player for the next half decade. If I were worried that this is the best we're going to see from him, then I'd be all for shopping him, but that's not the case (with me at least).

The guy I'd be looking to sell high at this moment is Josh Hamilton. He's not terribly young and he's looking a litle fragile. He's a RF, not a CF and Jay Bruce (ideally a RF) is coming.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by M2

I like the idea better in theory than practice. I'm a build-up-the-middle sort and Phillips is a keeper in my eyes. In fact, I think he's the linchpin position player on this team.

Plus, my guess is Brandon Phillips is going to be a very good player for the next half decade. If I were worried that this is the best we're going to see from him, then I'd be all for shopping him, but that's not the case (with me at least).

The guy I'd be looking to sell high at this moment is Josh Hamilton. He's not terribly young and he's looking a litle fragile. He's a RF, not a CF and Jay Bruce (ideally a RF) is coming.

Agree re: Phillips
Re: Hamilton, wouldn't that be selling kinda low?

[Johnny Footstool]

I like the idea of shopping Phillips.

Remember when Pokey Reese was untouchable? "He's the kind of player you build around" was used more than once to describe the Pokester.

Granted, Phillips has proven to be a better hitter than Reese, especially in the SLG department, but their skill set is similar (speed, defense, BA-driven offense with no batting eye). Prior to last season, Phillips was putting up Pokey-like numbers in the majors.

Phillips is 27 now, just entering his prime years (27-30). Are the Reds going to be any kind of competitive during that span? Not with this pitching staff.

Trading Phillips is exactly the kind of out-of-the-box thinking that this franchise needs.

[Falls City Beer]

My thought on it is this: I don't sweat getting meager production from two spots on the diamond--catcher and second base. Everywhere else, you better put up some numbers.

So, in my mind, Phillips represents a positional "surplus." Which is a very good thing. It's rare, and when you have it, it sure makes a weak 1B and 3B production seem like less of an eyesore.

But I'd rather seek my SLG from more traditional and reliable sources, like a REAL 1B man or 3B man, AND use that 2nd base offensive surplus to snag pitching in the bargain. I think that would optimize resources.

I like Phillips; he's far exceeded my early low expectations. But there's a reason I had those low expectations to begin with, and those reasons still apply: his seeming allergy to BBs. His game remains swing-driven; he's getting it done now, but I have a feeling that when he hits a bump, all the wheels are going to fall off.

[15fan]

Originally Posted by GAC

If you were that team, would you trade away a Homer Bailey for a Brandon Phillips?

depends. On a lot of things, actually.

Am I competing this year? Is acquiring Phillips & putting him in my lineup going to separate me from the rest of my competition in the division / league? Are the stars aligning such that I've got a real shot at October glory?

Most importantly, what else do I have in my own organization? Maybe I've actually got more than 1 or 2 legitimate pitching prospects in my organization and can afford to send a bona fide starter and a bona fide relief pitcher from my AA team to Cincinnati to get Phillips.

(This is a concept that is so foreign to Reds fans that we regularly forget that other organizations aren't nearly as inept at drafting & developing pitching.)

[Kc61]

Teams don't trade you prime young pitching. They used to. But today, these are the most valuable assets a team has.

Maybe, for a superstar, a team trades a top-tier pitching prospect. But the reality of the market is that Phillips will bring some good prospects, but not the highest echelon young pitchers.

I don't think the Red want to tear the thing down completely anyway. But even if they did want to, it is near impossible to get the kind of pitching talent in trades that would motivate the Reds to trade a Phillips.

Think about whether the Reds would trade Bailey and Cueto. Almost inconceivable, unless they received comparable young arms in return.

This is why trading Dunn by the deadline is a challenge for the Reds. His contract (and impending free agency if traded) suppresses his value. They are likely being offered good, but not great, pitching prospects. Certainly not the other team's top guy. This is why the Reds will probably have to decide whether to take less and essentially dump his salary, or exercise his option for next year.

I see no reason to trade Phillips in such a market. Trades just aren't that attractive these days. The guys the Reds need to trade are those who don't have long-term futures with the team due to salary or because they are nearing the end of their productive years as major league ball players.

[westofyou]

I don't sweat getting meager production from two spots on the diamond--catcher and second base. Everywhere else, you better put up some numbers.

You must hate Shortstops, because they are the ones that get the most balls and hit the least, since they stitched together the first ball.

Me?

I don't trade guys like Phillips at this point in his contract and talent climb.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Agree re: Phillips
Re: Hamilton, wouldn't that be selling kinda low?

How would it be selling low on Hamilton? He's gone from nowhere to hot property.

Now, there is the matter of whether Hamilton can keep this up or get even better in the future. I don't know. I don't know if he's going to be more durable in the future either. I also don't know how the wear and tear of everyday baseball will affect his performance. There's a lot of "I don't know" when it comes to Hamilton.

I'm not advocating the Reds give him away, but if he could fetch a handsome return, I'd for sure consider moving him. If he were a natural CF, I'd probably have a different take, but he isn't.

[15fan]

Originally Posted by M2

The guy I'd be looking to sell high at this moment is Josh Hamilton. He's not terribly young and he's looking a litle fragile. He's a RF, not a CF and Jay Bruce (ideally a RF) is coming.

I figured that if this thread didn't get any play, my next iteration was to consider shopping Phillips AND Hamilton.

But I don't think Hamilton is quite at peak value right now. He needs to come back from the injury & get going again. If he does, then I think he's really shoppable this winter.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by westofyou

You must hate Shortstops, because they are the ones that get the most balls and hit the least, since they stitched together the first ball.

Guess I'm just spoiled at the SS position--Larkin, Davey...but I see what you're saying.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by M2

How would it be selling low on Hamilton? He's gone from nowhere to hot property.

Now, there is the matter of whether Hamilton can keep this up or get even better in the future. I don't know. I don't know if he's going to be more durable in the future either. I also don't know how the wear and tear of everyday baseball will affect his performance. There's a lot of "I don't know" when it comes to Hamilton.

I'm not advocating the Reds give him away, but if he could fetch a handsome return, I'd for sure consider moving him. If he were a natural CF, I'd probably have a different take, but he isn't.

Originally Posted by 15fan

But I don't think Hamilton is quite at peak value right now. He needs to come back from the injury & get going again. If he does, then I think he's really shoppable this winter.

That's what I meant. He needs to come back from injury and start raking again. Either way, I think both Hamilton and Phillips represent the exact kind of player the Reds should be stockpiling. If a team is willing to give up a Garza or a Miller, deal away. Otherwise, it would be foolish to continue this state of perpetual rebuilding. Trade Dunn and/or Griffey. Get pitching. Keep Phillips and/or Hamilton. Contend (while you still have Harang and Arroyo)

[PuffyPig]

I think Phillips is a very good player. Speed, defence and power. What's not to like.

But I think he will always be a over rated player, becuase his low OBA will be forgotten because of his power.

If we could get areal good return on pitching, you got to consider it.

But there's no harm in wading through his arb years and flip him when he gets closer to FA. Unless we get bowled over.

[Johnny Footstool]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Think about whether the Reds would trade Bailey and Cueto. Almost inconceivable, unless they received comparable young arms in return.

Inconceivable, yes, because the Reds organization is bereft of pitching talent and has been for a decade.

A pitching-rich organization on the verge of playoff contention, though? They would consider it. So would a wealthy team who could replace lost pitching talent by playing the free agent market.

[Benihana]

edit-

Originally Posted by westofyou

You must hate Shortstops, because they are the ones that get the most balls and hit the least, since they stitched together the first ball.

Me?

I don't trade guys like Phillips at this point in his contract and talent climb.

beat me to it