Who Would You Like to See Traded at the Deadline?

[camisadelgolf]

I picked the ten-most likely Reds to be traded at the deadline. Which of these players would you like to see traded? Why?

[camisadelgolf]

I picked Hatteberg because, mainly, I really want to see Votto getting at-bats. (I would've picked Conine, but he's right-handed.) I think this is the last good year Weathers has in him, so I'd like to see him gone while his stock is high. I'd like to see Kyle Lohse traded unless no one's willing to give up anything more valuable than the draft pick the Reds would receive by keeping him. I want Adam Dunn out of here because the money that would be freed up would be extremely helpful for next year and beyond.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I'd like to see Kyle Lohse traded unless no one's willing to give up anything more valuable than the draft pick the Reds would receive by keeping him.

There seems to be a very large misperception out there about Kyle Lohse actually being able to net the Reds a draft pick. As of right now, if Kyle Lohse nets a draft pick, I'd be shocked. Quite frankly, he hasn't been productive enough to warrant even Type B classification, especially with the new standards going into effect this offseason.

Kyle Lohse's Elias score after last season was 39.542, which didn't even classify him as a Type C player under the old system. The lowest score Type B player on the list had a score of 48.938. Lohse was not even in the top 60 percent of NL starting pitchers.

Elias uses rather crude metrics to determine scores, including such stuff as innings pitched, ERA and raw strikeout totals, and they include the previous two seasons. The problem with this is Lohse's 2006 season was absolutely horrible so it was included in last year's Elias score and it will be once again included in this year's Elias score. Essentially, Lohse's 2007 season will replace his 2005 season in which he put up a 4.18 ERA in 178.2 innings.

Lohse 2005-06 ... 305.1 innings, 4.86 ERA, and 183 strikeouts
Lohse 2006-07 ... 252.2 innings, 5.27 ERA, and 175 strikeouts

Lohse should easily surpass his strikeout totals, which is good, and he'll probably eclipse his innings pitched totals, albeit by possibly not a whole lot. The real problem is his ERA for 2006-07 is considerably higher than 2005-06, and that could easily offset his gains in strikeouts and innings.

Remember another curveball here as well: the new standards for Type A and Type B free agents go into effect this offseason. Last offseason, Type A players were the top 30 percent at each position with Type B players being the top 31-50 percent at each position. Effective this offseason for the first time, Type A players are now only the top 20 percent at each position with Type B players being the top 21-40 percent at each position.

What this means is Kyle Lohse has to somehow climb from being just barely out of the top 60 percent of NL starting pitchers to at least within the top 40 percent of starting pitchers. Given his numbers so far this season, it's an extremely poor bet for that to happen. And for the Reds, if they elect to keep Lohse and allow him to walk, there's a very good chance he won't even qualify as a free agent able to net a compensation draft pick.

The Reds have exactly two options with Kyle Lohse: trade him now if they want to receive anything in return, or resign him (which I sincerely hope they don't do). Keeping him the remainder of this season and letting him walk won't do anything to help this franchise in 2008 and beyond.

[creek14]

Where's the Krivsky option?

[oneupper]

I put up the regular suspects, the guys who aren't under contract for 2008 (plus Stanton).

The one I REALLY want traded is Freel. Let some other fans enjoy his diving catches and seeing him picked off first (and second).

[redsrule2500]

I picked Edwin just because he's not part of any Reds future plans, so seeing him go would be easy.

I also picked Stanton and Conine. Maybe Loshe too, or Dunn.

I don't agree with trading Weathers, why not lock him up for a few years? He's by far the best bullpen arm we have - I can't imagine the 6-7-8-9 without him.

[camisadelgolf]

Thank you for the insight, Cyclone792. I had forgotten what a disaster 2006 was for Lohse, so I figured he'd be much closer to bringing in draft pick compensation.

Not that I blame anyone for thinking it, but I'm surprised at how many people want Freel gone. I always considered him to be kind of the hard-nosed Mr. Cincinnati.

[nate]

Hatteberg and Conine because its time to see Votto.

Freel, I think he's a good super sub but the brain gear is not engaging the hustle gear. Besides, between NoHo and Secretary of Short Keppinger, we have the same player. NoHo can take just as bad a route to a flyball with the same kind of velocity as Freel.

Lohse...this may be sad but I think he's the most tradable piece we have. I think we'll do better with a trade than compensatory draft pick as Cyclone pointed out.

Stanton...everyone needs a lefty, right?

Right?

Hello?

[Eric_Davis]

I'm sure this has been discussed, but is Weathers so expensive that we can't keep him?

He's about the only effective reliever we have, and when it takes a minimum of 3 good ones, why would we want to trade away the best one we have when he doesn't seem to be that expensive?

[REDREAD]

Hat, Conine, Lohse, and Stanton should be traded to open up salary and space for younger players. None of them will fetch a king's ransom, but all (except maybe Stanton) are definitely useful players for a stretch run.

Freel is too expensive for a 5th OF. I hated that extension. It was unnecessary. It looks like Hopper has moved ahead of him in the depth chart as well. I never understood Wayne's obsession with locking up backup players. Personally, I think it's crazy.

Weathers should be able to be flipped for something pretty good. I fear Wayne wants ML ready talent. I think he should settle for a pair of high upside prospects that are 2-3 years away.

I want every player on this team made available in the right deal.

I was hoping Wayne would go ahead and move some of the "no brainer" guys like Conine, Hat, Stanton, and Lohse a little early so that he had time to work on a last minute bigger deal like Lohse. I fear Wayne is really gun shy after last year, and is going to be spending the last minute maximizing the return for Conine instead of working on a trade that could really change this franchise.

[Kc61]

You can debate trading Lohse, Conine and Hatteberg, but these are not major moves. They just don't get the Reds anything much back.

The real issue is whether Reds should trade the following or any of them:

Dunn, Griffey, EE, Weathers, Arroyo. I'm assuming Harang and Phillips are safe, but everyone is worth talking about.

If the Reds trade a couple of their main players, that shows me that they understand the need to restructure. If they trade Lohse and Conine, it shows me that they want to remove some salary before another dismal season ends, with no real advance being made.

Unless the Reds get some new top talent, or at least open up salary space -- major space -- for new players, then prepare for another several years of hoping, maybe, that the team can be around .500. I hope Castellini understands this, because otherwise the team is headed nowhere.

This group, even with minor change, will not be a serious contender.

[Highlifeman21]

Keep Dunn and EE as the future. Build around them.

Everyone else on this list, c ya. Hope y'all enjoy your new teams.

[KronoRed]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

Keep Dunn and EE as the future. Build around them.

Everyone else on this list, c ya. Hope y'all enjoy your new teams.

Agreed.

Funny though from the list I expect Dunn and EE to be the firsts ones off it to be traded

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

Keep Dunn and EE as the future. Build around them.

Everyone else on this list, c ya. Hope y'all enjoy your new teams.

My vote exactly.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Scott Hatteberg - I think Joey Votto is proving himself in AAA and was on the World team and All Star team this year. 1st is all his and I think he should get a taste of the big leagues as soon as possible.

Jeff Conine - Pretty much for the same reasons as Hatteberg. I don't think he has as much value as Hatteberg but he will help a contending bench and can play RF, LF, and 1B. He's a guy who makes contact and can work a count. His 2 championship rings doesn't hurt either.

Adam Dunn - I think his 13.5 million dollar option is to big for his performance. Not to take anything from Dunn.. he is a very talented athlete and has amazing power. However he K's to much, his defense is woeful, and his average is.. well.. not good. This team has stated that they want to build a team with less strikeouts and better defense.. two things that stick out as negatives when you bring up Adam Dunn.

Kyle Lohse - I think he has the value a contending team would want. He has been very inconsistent throughout this year. However.. when he is on.. he is pretty much untouchable. Livingston to me has been very good and could take Lohse spot in the rotation. Add to the mix could be Phil Dumatrait, Johnny Cueto, as well as Homer Bailey once he returns from the groin injury.

Mike Stanton - I would love to see him dealt.. however at this point a release looks more likely for Stanton. He had been one of the more reliable arms in the pen before and slightly after the injury but lately that hasn't been the case.

David Weathers - I think he would help out a contender. He has been the bright side to this bullpen. However Bray and Guardado are close to returning and I like the make-up of guys like Burton, Salmon, Coutlangus, McBeth, Medlock, and yes.. even Coffey.