Adam Dunn's career ranks are impressive... - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

AtomicDumpling · 07-27-2007, 09:34 PM

The thread I created regarding Adam Dunn being ranked #225 with 225 career homers kind of got hijacked by the standard "Dunn sucks/doesn't suck" argument. It was partly my fault so I am not complaining. Let’s try to keep all comments relating to Dunn’s salary, contract status, fielding and trade status out of this thread please.

I thought it might be interesting to research Dunn's career rank in all the major stats:

#190 Strikeouts: 1048
Next up Ryan Klesko, Chipper Jones, Howard Johnson

#225 Home Runs: 225
tied with Derrek Lee

#400 Walks: 631
Next up Chris Chambliss

#873 RBI: 533
tied w/ Charlie Bennett, Grady Hatton (Reds 1946-54), Rip Radcliff, Lonnie Smith, Jake Stenzel (Reds 1899), Michael Young

#945 Runs Scored: 583
tied w/ Wilbur Marshall (Reds 1952-53)

#964 Total Bases: 1652
Next up Glenn Wilson

#1137 Doubles: 170
tied w/ Tommie Agee, Jesus Alou, Johnny Briggs, Eddie Brown, Mike Devereaux, Jim Morrison, Lyle Overbay, George Pinkney, Frank Snyder, John VanderWal

#1224 Stolen Bases: 56
tied w/ 20 others

#1228 Caught Stealing: 18
tied w/ 57 others

#1407 At-Bats: 3189
Next up Jerry Browne

#1498 Hits: 791
tied w/ Bob Jones, Billy Urbanski

#3133 Triples: 8
tied w/ 190 others

Adam Dunn doesn’t qualify for rate-based stats yet because you need 5000 ABs. 678 players have reached 5000 ABs. Here is how Dunn would rank if he had qualified:

#50 Slugging %: .518
tied w/ Brian Giles, Magglio Ordonez

#83 On-Base %: .379
tied w/ Jack Clark, Bill Dickey, Mike Piazza, Enos Slaughter, Duke Snyder, Carl Yastrzemski

#649 Batting Average: .248
tied with Graig Nettles, Dale Evans, Jim Sundberg and several others.

Given his #1407 rank in At-Bats it makes some sense to say he has performed better than an average player in every category except triples and hits (and hence batting average too). His most impressive categories are SLG and OBP. Check out those famous names he is tied with in OBP. His least impressive categories are Strikeouts and Batting Average – no surprises there.

What all these numbers show us is that Adam Dunn has a great chance to put his name near the top of several of the all-time career stats lists. He is only 27 years old and just entering the seasons most players reach their peak performance level. As long as he stays healthy he will put up Hall of Fame caliber numbers in most categories. Unless he greatly improves his batting average though (maybe by striking out less often?) I don’t think he would receive much support for the HOF.

improbus · 07-27-2007, 09:41 PM

What will really help Dunn was coming up early. He was a Red at 21 and starter by 22. Most guys start a little later.

texasdave · 07-27-2007, 09:49 PM

I think AD will end up with 500+ home runs. Probably won't reach the 600 mark. Just a guess really. I don't think records and numbers mean all that much to him. He doesn't strike me as the type of player that would hang on just to reach a certain number. I could be wrong. He did start young so he does have a chance. Health might be an issue in a few years unless they move him to first. I realize he hasn't missed many games yet in his career, but being that big and doing all that running in the outfield may take its toll.

Chi-Town Red · 07-27-2007, 10:02 PM

Yea 500 HR'S should be very doable especially if he moves to the AL as a DH, which i think is inevitable.....1,500 RBI may also be possible along with 1,500 walks....i do think he will shatter the strikeout record set by Reggie if he plays long enough

AtomicDumpling · 07-28-2007, 01:08 AM

Dunn did start young at age 21. You are right about that being an advantage that helps players reach the top of the career charts. That isn't terribly uncommon for the best players. Quite a few of the superstar players in the league started out very young.

Age as a rookie:
19 years: Alex Rodriguez, Jose Reyes, Andruw Jones

20 years: Vlad Guerrero, Miguel Cabrera, Gary Sheffield, Ivan Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr.

21 years: Albert Pujols, Carlos Beltran, Carl Crawford, Manny Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Prince Fielder, Miguel Tejada, Joe Mauer, Sammy Sosa

22 years: Barry Bonds

I agree that Adam Dunn will probably top out around 500 homers, but he is capable of 600+ if all goes well. If he ever makes a commitment to physical fitness it would help. If he ever gets in a situation where there is a fearsome hitter following him in the batting order he may get a lot more fastballs to hit. Then he could make a run at 60+ homers and be the first "clean" player to pass Roger Maris and Babe Ruth. Dunn has the power to break records. If he made an effort to swing earlier in the count more often then he would hit more homers, strike out less, and walk less.

I think the strikeout record of 2597 held by Reggie Jackson is in mortal danger. Sammy Sosa or Jim Thome may get there first though.

It is rare for a 6' 6", 275 LB player to stay in the outfield for long. He would be much less likely to get hurt if he played 1B or DH, which he will soon.

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07-27-2007, 09:34 PM	#1
AtomicDumpling KungFu Fighter Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Hamilton, OH Posts: 2,355	Adam Dunn's career ranks are impressive... The thread I created regarding Adam Dunn being ranked #225 with 225 career homers kind of got hijacked by the standard "Dunn sucks/doesn't suck" argument. It was partly my fault so I am not complaining. Let’s try to keep all comments relating to Dunn’s salary, contract status, fielding and trade status out of this thread please. I thought it might be interesting to research Dunn's career rank in all the major stats: #190 Strikeouts: 1048 Next up Ryan Klesko, Chipper Jones, Howard Johnson #225 Home Runs: 225 tied with Derrek Lee #400 Walks: 631 Next up Chris Chambliss #873 RBI: 533 tied w/ Charlie Bennett, Grady Hatton (Reds 1946-54), Rip Radcliff, Lonnie Smith, Jake Stenzel (Reds 1899), Michael Young #945 Runs Scored: 583 tied w/ Wilbur Marshall (Reds 1952-53) #964 Total Bases: 1652 Next up Glenn Wilson #1137 Doubles: 170 tied w/ Tommie Agee, Jesus Alou, Johnny Briggs, Eddie Brown, Mike Devereaux, Jim Morrison, Lyle Overbay, George Pinkney, Frank Snyder, John VanderWal #1224 Stolen Bases: 56 tied w/ 20 others #1228 Caught Stealing: 18 tied w/ 57 others #1407 At-Bats: 3189 Next up Jerry Browne #1498 Hits: 791 tied w/ Bob Jones, Billy Urbanski #3133 Triples: 8 tied w/ 190 others Adam Dunn doesn’t qualify for rate-based stats yet because you need 5000 ABs. 678 players have reached 5000 ABs. Here is how Dunn would rank if he had qualified: #50 Slugging %: .518 tied w/ Brian Giles, Magglio Ordonez #83 On-Base %: .379 tied w/ Jack Clark, Bill Dickey, Mike Piazza, Enos Slaughter, Duke Snyder, Carl Yastrzemski #649 Batting Average: .248 tied with Graig Nettles, Dale Evans, Jim Sundberg and several others. Given his #1407 rank in At-Bats it makes some sense to say he has performed better than an average player in every category except triples and hits (and hence batting average too). His most impressive categories are SLG and OBP. Check out those famous names he is tied with in OBP. His least impressive categories are Strikeouts and Batting Average – no surprises there. What all these numbers show us is that Adam Dunn has a great chance to put his name near the top of several of the all-time career stats lists. He is only 27 years old and just entering the seasons most players reach their peak performance level. As long as he stays healthy he will put up Hall of Fame caliber numbers in most categories. Unless he greatly improves his batting average though (maybe by striking out less often?) I don’t think he would receive much support for the HOF.

07-27-2007, 09:41 PM	#2
improbus Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Marysville, OH Posts: 2,007	Re: Adam Dunn's career ranks are impressive... What will really help Dunn was coming up early. He was a Red at 21 and starter by 22. Most guys start a little later. __________________ Variatio delectat - Cicero

07-27-2007, 09:49 PM	#3
texasdave Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 9,817	Re: Adam Dunn's career ranks are impressive... I think AD will end up with 500+ home runs. Probably won't reach the 600 mark. Just a guess really. I don't think records and numbers mean all that much to him. He doesn't strike me as the type of player that would hang on just to reach a certain number. I could be wrong. He did start young so he does have a chance. Health might be an issue in a few years unless they move him to first. I realize he hasn't missed many games yet in his career, but being that big and doing all that running in the outfield may take its toll.

07-27-2007, 10:02 PM	#4
Chi-Town Red Member Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: chicago Posts: 904	Re: Adam Dunn's career ranks are impressive... Yea 500 HR'S should be very doable especially if he moves to the AL as a DH, which i think is inevitable.....1,500 RBI may also be possible along with 1,500 walks....i do think he will shatter the strikeout record set by Reggie if he plays long enough __________________ Reds fan since 1970

07-28-2007, 01:08 AM	#5
AtomicDumpling KungFu Fighter Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Hamilton, OH Posts: 2,355	Re: Adam Dunn's career ranks are impressive... Dunn did start young at age 21. You are right about that being an advantage that helps players reach the top of the career charts. That isn't terribly uncommon for the best players. Quite a few of the superstar players in the league started out very young. Age as a rookie: 19 years: Alex Rodriguez, Jose Reyes, Andruw Jones 20 years: Vlad Guerrero, Miguel Cabrera, Gary Sheffield, Ivan Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr. 21 years: Albert Pujols, Carlos Beltran, Carl Crawford, Manny Ramirez, Derek Jeter, Prince Fielder, Miguel Tejada, Joe Mauer, Sammy Sosa 22 years: Barry Bonds I agree that Adam Dunn will probably top out around 500 homers, but he is capable of 600+ if all goes well. If he ever makes a commitment to physical fitness it would help. If he ever gets in a situation where there is a fearsome hitter following him in the batting order he may get a lot more fastballs to hit. Then he could make a run at 60+ homers and be the first "clean" player to pass Roger Maris and Babe Ruth. Dunn has the power to break records. If he made an effort to swing earlier in the count more often then he would hit more homers, strike out less, and walk less. I think the strikeout record of 2597 held by Reggie Jackson is in mortal danger. Sammy Sosa or Jim Thome may get there first though. It is rare for a 6' 6", 275 LB player to stay in the outfield for long. He would be much less likely to get hurt if he played 1B or DH, which he will soon.