Griffey to Seattle?

[Team Clark]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

This is what I mean. Hopefully we can help smooth that hurdle out somehow!

Everything revolves around $$$. I would suspect that is the main reason Dunn has not been moved. His agent probably does not want to get into an LTC with a team Dunner doesn't want to play for.

[paulrichjr]

Originally Posted by Team Clark

I would not be surprised at all to see Jr. gone by tomorrow. I would be more surprised to see him stay if that makes any sense. The only hurdle is Junior wanting a contract extension to 2011. (Not at a discount either)

Is this inside info or is this just a theory?

[OnBaseMachine]

I was just reading that it was reported that the Mariners offered OF prospect Vladimir Balentien to the Royals for Octavio Dotel. If I were Krivsky I would jump in and offer Weathers for Balentien...I would even toss in a prospect to make the deal happen. Balentien has 30-35 HR power potential from the right side, which is something the Reds could use to break up the lefties.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by M2

First off, I estimated that it was more likely Jr. would be a 100-point OPS bump, which would put him closer to a 10-RC difference for the rest of the season and that would be a big deal. And once again, a 10-RC hitting improvement for the rest of the season is the exact opposite of a downgrade vs. the house options. It is the very definition of an upgrade.

That frankly is an estimate that you're pulling out of your arse. Basically to estimate a 10 run difference, you have to assume the worst case for the platoon and the best case for Jr. Guillen might regress, he might not. Ibanez certainly has room for a hot streak. Jr had a GREAT first half of the season. That said, there isn't much reason to believe his second half will be carbon copy. It's most reasonable to assume a let down given his age and wear and tear and the fact that his first half surpassed most people's reasonable expectations. God willing he won't suffer an injury. A 100 pt bump in OPS not only seems optimistic, it's probably unlikely.

Originally Posted by M2

As for this "getting Jr also prevents the upgrade represented by Jones in left" invention of yours. You can keep saying it, but the Mariners could do both.

I'm not inventing anything. I'm basing my interpretation upon the culture of the Ms FO. If Jones is in left and Jr in right, there are two spots for Ibanez, Guillen, Broussard, Sexson and Vidro. Bavasi is fond of saying kids get managers fired. Assuming Bavasi doesn't want to get fired, Jones is low man on the totem pole in a log jam of veterans like that.

Your opinion simply isn't the most likely scenario based upon how Bavasi has traditionally acted.

Originally Posted by M2

Thought to be major league ready by whom? I chalk sentences like that up to things people say that don't really mean anything. Jones and Balentien are going to have a transition period. Pretty much every player coming out of AAA does, even the studs. The Arizona Diamondbacks are swimming in players like that - tipped for stardom, but taking some lumps.

I understand that not everyone on a Reds board will closely follow player development in the systems of other teams. That said, platitudes, demogogery and dogma shouldn't be mistaken for knowledge or insight.

Originally Posted by M2

And let's be honest, it would be an extreme minority grousing about trading a prospect for Jr., a number that would dwindle to almost zero if he put a hurt on the ball.

I guess it all depends on what cohort you're referencing. I know quite a few that would have a cow.

Originally Posted by M2

It's not how much you spend so much as when you spend it. The Mariners spend like the nouveau riche.

NO. It's how you spend it. It always has been and it always will be. Frankly, the Ms have spent like the old rich....very conservatively in the sense that they overpay for *proven*.

Originally Posted by M2

Have they consulted directly with you on this?

Of course they have. DUH.

Originally Posted by M2

If not, I'd suggest that they are capable of forming the same opinion you have - that they've got corner OF problems and Jones could help that. They also might be of the opinion that while Jones could help in the field, he'd be making a lot of extra outs at the plate while adjusting to the majors, losing the team whole numbers on offensive production for decimal gains on defense.

Once again, there is every reason to believe that Jones could be at least a league average bat in left field. His glove alone would be reason enough to stick him in left.

It's pure poppycock to suggest that it's a given that a top tier prospect who has proven himself ready will struggle out of the gate. At least, guys like Pence and Braun seem to suggest such a blanket statement really is an empty one concerning it's predictive power.

Originally Posted by M2

I've seen plenty of games at Safeco. It's not exactly a new ballpark. It wasn't so unique to keep Al Martin, Ruben Sierra and Raul Ibanez from plying their trade there (all awful defenders). Randy Winn's the only real plus defender the M's have deployed out there during the Safeco years. It's not that unique and quality defense out there isn't going to be a magic bullet for a team with bad pitching and mediocre offense.

The 2001-2002 versions of the Ms were perhaps some of the best defensive teams in recent history. They could afford to carry a Martin or Sierra in left. Even so neither player even got a majority of defensive innings in left either year.

The 2003 outfield alignment of the Ms is a perfect example that basically makes the case for Jones. Put a great defender in the largest leftfield in the AL where the Puget Sound causes balls in the air to hang and thus make them more catchable than in other parks and whooollaaaaa, team ERA plummets. To suggest that the size and environment of Safeco's left field doesn't make it unique is a bit absurd.

Originally Posted by M2

You're right. I'm sure his 76-PA from last season was all the apprenticeship he'll need for the majors. What could I have been thinking? Clearly he's seen and done it all.

Yep, it's as easy as platooning a bunch of vets, hoping their career norms don't catch up to them and then calling up a kid who'll be an instant star. That's certainly imaginative. I imagine Mariners fans will be praising the ballsiness of it in September when the team is playing out the string of yet another fruitless campaign, fully aware that, like most great works of man, it will take future generations to appreciate the full magnitude of its genius.

A) The Mariners aren't swimming talent. They're overachieving. Massage the roster any way you wish and all it will accomplish is the club would have to overachieve slightly less to make the playoffs.

B) Spending blood and treasure on a big bat to bolster a flagging offense could very well be a smart move. Spending less and forever trying to leech blood from stones are not necessarily the hallmarks of intelligence. It's a make-due plan. Obviously every team should try to get the most out of what it has, but there comes a time where a GM's got to ask whether he's got enough of a team to make the postseason and the answer in Bill Bavasi's case is probably no. So what can he do to change that? I'm not saying it has to be a trade for Jr., but the value engineering cookbook isn't exactly chockfull of World Series winning recipes.

That all basically assumes conclusions that frankly aren't givens and it's really just mischaracterizing my argument.

Nobody said Jones would be a superstar out of the gate. I've argued he'd be a league average bat who plays above average defense. I've argued to platoon veterans to magnify their strengths while lessening their weaknesses. It's not sexy but it's a time proven strategy. It's an interesting argument to have to make on a Reds site given the way the Reds rode a similar platoon at first base almost to the playoffs last season. I've also argued that having a great defender in Safeco's left CAN help the pitching in '07 just like it did in '03. Finally, I've argued that the impact of Jr's bat, assuming he mirrors his first half, basically isn't great enough compared to the options already on the Ms roster to justify trading the talent it would likely be necesary to give up in order to get him.

At this point the tone of the discussion seems to be degrading to a point where maybe it's best we just agree to disagree.

[Patrick Bateman]

Against lefties, I would say there is about a 100% chance that Guillen will regress. He's not going to hit .450 against lefties.

The highest I could see from Guillen against lefties over an extended amount of time would be in the .900 OPS range. That's around what he was doing in his big season with the Reds.

[Team Clark]

Originally Posted by paulrichjr

Is this inside info or is this just a theory?

An educated hypothesis. (If there is such a thing)

[MartyFan]

Originally Posted by Team Clark

I would not be surprised at all to see Jr. gone by tomorrow. I would be more surprised to see him stay if that makes any sense. The only hurdle is Junior wanting a contract extension to 2011. (Not at a discount either)

In a word...SHOCKING...I totally thought he would be off the table until after he gets #600.

So there is an acceptable offer on the table and Junior is good to go with an extension, eh?

I think that is the right trade to make...I LOVE JUNIOR but he needs to go to a team that can give him what this year and next years Reds cannot...a chance at a WS win!

[osuceltic]

Originally Posted by Team Clark
I would not be surprised at all to see Jr. gone by tomorrow. I would be more surprised to see him stay if that makes any sense. The only hurdle is Junior wanting a contract extension to 2011. (Not at a discount either)

That "only hurdle" might as well be Mt. Freaking Everest. No team is going to extend him three more years. He might as well be invoking a no-trade clause.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by osuceltic

That "only hurdle" might as well be Mt. Freaking Everest. No team is going to extend him three more years. He might as well be invoking a no-trade clause.

that is the cost to get him to waive his 10-5 rights and accept a trade.

I really have never felt Jr was going anywhere.

[Red Leader]

An AL team with the DH that desperately needs LH power might be willing to sign Jr. to an extension. You never know.

[Team Clark]

Originally Posted by flyer85

that is the cost to get him to waive his 10-5 rights and accept a trade.

I really have never felt Jr was going anywhere.

I would imagine that goes along the lines of "you want me bad enough, you are going to have to pay for it".

[osuceltic]

Originally Posted by Team Clark

I would imagine that goes along the lines of "you want me bad enough, you are going to have to pay for it".

And no one is going to want him that badly. There are serious questions about giving up much talent for him for the next 18 months. Tack a big, fat, expensive extension on there? He's a Red until the current contract is up.

[Red Leader]

Originally Posted by Team Clark

I would imagine that goes along the lines of "you want me bad enough, you are going to have to pay for it".

Right. This is Ken Griffey, Jr. we're talking about here. He has been an "elite" player his whole career, a HOF player. He wants to be treated as such. Can't say I blame him.

Think about your job. If someone offered you a new position somewhere halfway across the country would you move with no future certainty or pay raise? I sure wouldn't.

[KronoRed]

Originally Posted by Red Leader

An AL team with the DH that desperately needs LH power might be willing to sign Jr. to an extension. You never know.

Maybe, but really only a team who has money to spare on a DH past the age of 40 would go for that, and Boston and the Yanks don't need a DH

[BRM]

If a contract extension is part of the deal, Junior won't be going anywhere.