What does Carlos Guevara have left to prove in AA

[klw]

Does he own real estate in Chattanooga?
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...pbp&pid=454581


2007 Season

Team League W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP  H  R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG 
CHA    SOU 0 2 2.33 39 0 0   0 14 46.1 38 13 12 3 16 67 0.74 .224

2006

Team League W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP  H  R  ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG
CHA    SOU 2 3 3.72 49 0 0   0   1 77.1 74 35 32 6 27 89 0.99 .247

[Superdude]

Guevara should have at least three dominant years at AA before I would move him up. I find that to be a good rule of thumb when you're dealing with 25 year old relief prospecs in an organization starving for bullpen help.

[klw]

Originally Posted by Superdude

Guevara should have at least three dominant years at AA before I would move him up. I find that to be a good rule of thumb when you're dealing with 25 year old relief prospecs in an organization starving for bullpen help.

Yes my mistake. Better be prudent lest it ruin the pennant run. Plus he can be groomed to mentor the younger players and work towards player coach status.

[Aronchis]

My guess he is another Medlock to the Reds FO.

[ochoa30]

what kind of stuff does he have?

[Doc. Scott]

I had read that he gets many of his outs with some sort of a trick pitch, either a forkball or palmball. I don't think he's got the mid-nineties heat.

In other words, actually lesser stuff than Medlock, who had a low-90s fastball and above-average MLB changeup.

Anyone remember anything more specific?

[Danny Serafini]

Gimmicky screwball pitcher is what I've heard. They probably don't think he'll be able to fool Major Leaguers with it.

[Javy Pornstache]

Originally Posted by Doc. Scott

I had read that he gets many of his outs with some sort of a trick pitch, either a forkball or palmball. I don't think he's got the mid-nineties heat.

In other words, actually lesser stuff than Medlock, who had a low-90s fastball and above-average MLB changeup.

Anyone remember anything more specific?

He's definitely not overpowering, Doc. He has upper-80s fastball, best I remember, but as Brother Serafini said, a screwball is the gimmick pitch that he's been baffling hitters with through the minors.

[RedsManRick]

Maybe if he grew a few inches and threw a fastball a little harder we could give him a chance to actually see if his stuff works on more experienced players. If not, maybe we should let him age a few years and then flip him to another team who can send us a guy who has proven that he doesn't have what it takes at the major league level.

Question, what makes the screwball a gimmick pitch. It's not like it's an eephus pitch that he throws once a game to get a key strikeout. If he's throwing it regularly, and it continues to work, is it still a gimmick? And if so, and it just works because few other guys throw it, should it keep working as he moves up to higher levels? Not too many guys can throw a curve ball like Rich Hill, a sinker like Brandon Webb, or a cutter like Mo' Rivera. Gimmick pitch or just a good out pitch? You be the judge.

Chad Bradford has turned a "gimmick delivery" in to a pretty nice little career.

[Doc. Scott]

I believe he's also short; five-foot-eleven IIRC, one inch taller than Medlock.

[D-Man]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Maybe if he grew a few inches and threw a fastball a little harder we could give him a chance to actually see if his stuff works on more experienced players. If not, maybe we should let him age a few years and then flip him to another team who can send us a guy who has proven that he doesn't have what it takes at the major league level.

Question, what makes the screwball a gimmick pitch. It's not like it's an eephus pitch that he throws once a game to get a key strikeout. If he's throwing it regularly, and it continues to work, is it still a gimmick? And if so, and it just works because few other guys throw it, should it keep working as he moves up to higher levels? Not too many guys can throw a curve ball like Rich Hill, a sinker like Brandon Webb, or a cutter like Mo' Rivera. Gimmick pitch or just a good out pitch? You be the judge.

Chad Bradford has turned a "gimmick delivery" in to a pretty nice little career.

Agreed. "Gimmick pitch" is usually baseball writer hyperbole.

I think the key characterization is the consistency and repeatability of the "gimmick" pitch. Dan Quisenberry was consistently great throwing a telegraphed, low-80s sinker that everyone in the ballpark knew was coming. It was great pitch because it was consistent. Billy Taylor, on the other hand, rode a career wave that ebbed and flowed with his changeup.

Regarding Guevara, specifically--I'm fairly confident that is his offspeed stuff will hold up at higher levels. The bigger question with him is his fastball, because he will most likely need it to be at least a decent pitch. Does his fastball lack movement? Much like Zito, I'm sure Guevara needs at least a decent offering to set up the out pitch.

I'm speculating that the fastball is probably what has kept him at AA, rightly or wrongly.

[jmcclain19]

Guevara is a pitching guru Mike Marshall disciple - so it's no surprise he throws that pitch.

I'm honestly surprised it's not used more often - same with the Knuckler. Batters rarely ever see it so it could be a nasty weapon if used right.

Supposedly, Guevara has a mediocre fastball & slider - so the fact that he's put up above average numbers for his whole career says something about the quality of his pitch.

Marshall is blackballed around baseball so perhaps that plays into it as well with the Reds FO - I honstly don't know why.

[Superdude]

I don't think anyone really knows if he can continue to live off his screwball at AAA and in the majors, but you'd think at some point, maybe just out of curiosity, you'd want to find out. I think it's pretty safe to say it's working at AA. Or maybe it's just a two year sample size fluke? Kudos to Wayne for not jumping to conclusions I guess.