A Plan Emerging?

[bucksfan2]

The more and more I think about the reds the more and more I can start to see a plan develop. I started thinking about an overall plan when I was reading through the Keppinger and Hopper threads. I think there is something to say when the reds management wants Votto to get some starts in LF as well as playing Keppinger in LF the other day. I would be willing to bet as the season goes on Keppinger will play a few more times in left. Keppinger can basically play every infield position however the only infield position that has an opening right now is 3rd competing with Edwin. 2nd is secured up with Phillips and the reds seem intent on giving Gonzo playing time at SS. I also see the reds trade for Cantu (who is tearing the ball up in AAA) who is primarily a 1b, 2b, or 3b.

-These moves leave me to believe that Dunn's option will not be picked up and the reds will recieve draft picks for compensatoin. I think Votto and Keppinger will share the brunt of innings in LF with Hopper as a defensive replacement.

-I also believe that Hatty may be retained as a bench player only or traded in this offseason with Cantu and Votto splitting time at 1b.

-Phillips and Gonzo seem to have 2b and SS tied down with Edwin competing with Keppinger for the 3b position.

-Griffey probably will return because of sentimental value but I wouldn't be suprised that he will be traded when he hits #600.

-I think Bruce starts in AAA with Griffey, Freel, Hopper, and Ellison sharing the LF duties until Bruce is ready.

Does this make sense to anyone? Or an I just imagining too much?

[dougdirt]

Dear God I hope I dont have to see any combo with Freel/Hopper/Ellison playing 2/3 of the outfield on any sort of regular basis.

I would say that if Adam Dunn doesn't have his option picked up that Jay Bruce will start for the Reds in April 2008 in CF with Hamilton in LF and Griffey in RF.

[acredsfan]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

The more and more I think about the reds the more and more I can start to see a plan develop. I started thinking about an overall plan when I was reading through the Keppinger and Hopper threads. I think there is something to say when the reds management wants Votto to get some starts in LF as well as playing Keppinger in LF the other day. I would be willing to bet as the season goes on Keppinger will play a few more times in left. Keppinger can basically play every infield position however the only infield position that has an opening right now is 3rd competing with Edwin. 2nd is secured up with Phillips and the reds seem intent on giving Gonzo playing time at SS. I also see the reds trade for Cantu (who is tearing the ball up in AAA) who is primarily a 1b, 2b, or 3b.

-These moves leave me to believe that Dunn's option will not be picked up and the reds will recieve draft picks for compensatoin. I think Votto and Keppinger will share the brunt of innings in LF with Hopper as a defensive replacement.

-I also believe that Hatty may be retained as a bench player only or traded in this offseason with Cantu and Votto splitting time at 1b.

-Phillips and Gonzo seem to have 2b and SS tied down with Edwin competing with Keppinger for the 3b position.

-Griffey probably will return because of sentimental value but I wouldn't be suprised that he will be traded when he hits #600.

-I think Bruce starts in AAA with Griffey, Freel, Hopper, and Ellison sharing the LF duties until Bruce is ready.

Does this make sense to anyone? Or an I just imagining too much?

I don't necessarily believe there is or should be a concrete plan. There are too many variables to take into consideration and everything would have to go exactly right for a concrete plan to work. Yeah, you can have a direction you want to head in, but that also can change in an instant. I've learned that I'm just happier watching what happens rather than try and predict what will happen. Yeah, that all makes sense, but Wayne's moves don't always go with what make sense to others. You can let Dunn go, but you already know what he will probably provide you. You can attempt to get draft picks for him, but those are risky. You can go ahead and depend on lesser known options in terms of production. Yeah, Jay Bruce is a stud of a prospect, but you can't project for sure what he can provide. You can't do that with Hamilton or Votto either. Maybe Dunn will stick around and Krivsky will try to ease the younger players in and try to trade Dunn around the trade deadline. Maybe they don't pick up the option and let the younger players dive right into the big leagues. Who knows? Sit back and enjoy the ride.

[KronoRed]

The Reds won't just give Bruce a job, if Dunn isn't here expect a vet to come in to play the OF, I'm thinking Kenny Lofton

[Strikes Out Looking]

I have nothing against Hopper and Keppinger and Votto and whomever, but not picking up Dunn's option on a contract agreed to by the current GM and only getting draft picks is just, well, it reeks of Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Pick up the option and trade him when you can, but don't just get draft picks, it doesn't work.

[BRM]

Originally Posted by KronoRed

The Reds won't just give Bruce a job, if Dunn isn't here expect a vet to come in to play the OF, I'm thinking Kenny Lofton

That's my thought. Bruce may be "given a shot" in spring training but no way do the Reds give him CF next year, regardless of what happens with Adam Dunn. I can definitely see Wayne bringing in a vet like Lofton to play CF if Dunn is traded. Bruce will start the year in Louisville even if he hits .500 in spring training.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Strikes Out Looking

I have nothing against Hopper and Keppinger and Votto and whomever, but not picking up Dunn's option on a contract agreed to by the current GM and only getting draft picks is just, well, it reeks of Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Pick up the option and trade him when you can, but don't just get draft picks, it doesn't work.

You are now assuming that the Reds dont think they will get better value for their draft picks than they will for Dunn. I don't exactly agree with it, but that might be how they are looking at it.

[StillFunkyB]

Originally Posted by KronoRed

The Reds won't just give Bruce a job, if Dunn isn't here expect a vet to come in to play the OF, I'm thinking Kenny Lofton

If Kenny can keep hitting, I don't have a problem with that. That is if it's only until someone else is ready.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

-These moves leave me to believe that Dunn's option will not be picked up and the reds will recieve draft picks for compensatoin. I think Votto and Keppinger will share the brunt of innings in LF with Hopper as a defensive replacement.


Does this make sense to anyone? Or an I just imagining too much?

I don't think it makes any sense.

I believe there is basically zero change of Dunn's option not being picked up.

Exercised and perhaps traded after June 15 may be possible.

If the option is not picked up, we have to offer Dunn arbitration to get draft picks. Maybe Dunn decides to get $15M+ from us in arbitration.

Playing Votto and keppinger in LF is just simply tryiing to make players more versatile.

If Dunn isn't in LF next year, then it will be Bruce or a 1 year FA acqusition.

[Kc61]

At this point, I think they will pick up Dunn's option. Can't see them just letting him go for draft choices. It's a fair amount of money, but only one year. After next season, Griffey and Dunn will both be at the end of their deals (there's an option on Griff for '09, I believe) so a full-time slot will be open for Bruce by then. Maybe both corners will be open in the Reds' outfield, who knows. Reds might also trade Griff sooner, after he collects number 600.

I think the plan is to add more and more players from the minor leagues. The Reds AA and AAA teams have a lot of prospects. (Not so sure about the A-ball group, but it's early for them.) By opening day 2009 you will see many of these guys on the roster. Some may get traded for pitching.

While I'd like to see the Reds make a splash in the free agent market, which never happens, at least we can look forward to Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, Votto, Dickerson, Pelland, Maloney, Roenicke, McBeth, Salmon (again), maybe Guevera, all getting a shot soon, in addition to Livingston and Dumatrait who are up already. And any other kids they acquire. I think that's the plan.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

I don't think it makes any sense.

I believe there is basically zero change of Dunn's option not being picked up.

Exercised and perhaps traded after June 15 may be possible.

If the option is not picked up, we have to offer Dunn arbitration to get draft picks. Maybe Dunn decides to get $15M+ from us in arbitration.

Playing Votto and keppinger in LF is just simply tryiing to make players more versatile.

If Dunn isn't in LF next year, then it will be Bruce or a 1 year FA acqusition.

Thats not true. If he signs with another team before a certain date, the Reds get the draft picks whether they offer him arbitration or not.

[nate]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Thats not true. If he signs with another team before a certain date, the Reds get the draft picks whether they offer him arbitration or not.

Right, but either way it doesn't seem like a "sure thing" to get draft picks by declining the option.

[redsmetz]

I noticed the original poster doesn't even factor in Josh Hamilton. I agree with those who say the Reds will pick up Dunn's option. I think it will be too early for Bruce to come up at the beginning of 2008.

I like Keppinger and Hopper, but I like them alot off the bench, not as starters; in spite of Marty's undying devotion to both.

[fearofpopvol1]

I'd hope the Reds pick up Dunn's option for next year, because the contract for next year given the projected salaries is doable.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Thats not true. If he signs with another team before a certain date, the Reds get the draft picks whether they offer him arbitration or not.

The number of players who sign before the arbitration date are pretty few. And those that do are generally sure bets to be offered arbitration.

Is Dunn a sure bet to be offered arbitration?

Any team that declines what will be a below market option on Dunn, is not a sure bet to offer arbitration when the likely result could be expensive gamble gone wrong.