Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)... - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

jojo · 08-18-2007, 08:30 PM

Here's Dunn's line for August thus far (8/18/07):

.271/.410/.646; OPS: 1.056 BABIP: .206

The true three outcome prototype during a power surge...

Whether you love him or hate him, he's always good for conversation.

camisadelgolf · 08-18-2007, 10:41 PM

I think the shift is killing him. Maybe that's why he was able to hit for average in the Minor Leagues.

SteelSD · 08-19-2007, 01:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I think the shift is killing him. Maybe that's why he was able to hit for average in the Minor Leagues.

I'm not sure that's accurate. Dunn's BABIP this season is .309 per THT- which is what we'd expect for pretty much any hitter. And considering that Dunn produces one of the lowest Ground Ball rates in the NL consistently (lowest in 2006, 4th lowest in 2007), I'm not sure the defensive "shift" really does a lot.

The August BA versus BABIP differential is solely due to the number of Home Runs hit by Dunn this month. They count as Hits but not Balls in Play.

The real oddity is how Dunn ended up with a .281 BAPIP in 2006 while finishing fourth in the NL in Line Drive percentage (23.5%). The only other NL hitter to produce a BABIP equal to or lower than that .281 with a 20% or higher line drive rate was Adam Everett (.270). And considering that Dunn projects to consistently produce high HR per Fly Ball rates (4th in the NL in 2004, 5th in 2005, 8th in 2006, 4th in 2007) because he's so darned strong, what we most likely saw last season was a complete aberration.

RedLegSuperStar · 08-19-2007, 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I think the shift is killing him. Maybe that's why he was able to hit for average in the Minor Leagues.

Teach the big boy how to bunt down the third base line..

RedsManRick · 08-19-2007, 11:33 AM

There's an argument to be made that Dunn's BABIP will always below because when he truly hits it well, it often leaves the yard. Thus, by omitting homers, we're selecting a set of balls in play that by definition excludes many if not most of Dunn's better contacts.

CTA513 · 08-19-2007, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar

Teach the big boy how to bunt down the third base line..

Teach all the players how to bunt.

RedLegSuperStar · 08-19-2007, 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CTA513

Teach all the players how to bunt.

Fair statement

BCubb2003 · 08-19-2007, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar

Teach the big boy how to bunt down the third base line..

That's just what they want us to do.

KronoRed · 08-19-2007, 01:27 PM

They could bring in the LF to play 3rd to prevent the bunt, go with 2 OF's

jojo · 08-19-2007, 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

There's an argument to be made that Dunn's BABIP will always below because when he truly hits it well, it often leaves the yard. Thus, by omitting homers, we're selecting a set of balls in play that by definition excludes many if not most of Dunn's better contacts.

For his career, Dunn's BABIP is .293 which is right about average for major leaguers.

If you take small samples during a power spike, I bet you could find periods where Dunn's BABIP was below the Mendoza line while his OPS was HOF-like.

I just thought Dunn's August line was an interesting curiosity that you don't see everyday so to speak....

Coffeybro · 08-20-2007, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Teach the big boy how to bunt down the third base line..

My dad and I have talked about this for several years now. Both him and Griffey should be doing this to get on and start to destroy the shift IMHO.

flyer85 · 08-20-2007, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coffeybro

Both him and Griffey should be doing this to get on and start to destroy the shift IMHO.

why would it destroy the shift?

The point of the shift is that there are situations when they are more than happy to let them have a bunt single(same goes for guys like Howard and Ortiz who also get "the shift").

Sea Ray · 08-20-2007, 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flyer85

why would it destroy the shift?

The point of the shift is that there are situations when they are more than happy to let them have a bunt single(same goes for guys like Howard and Ortiz who also get "the shift").

I agree with Coffeybro. If he gets too many cheap hits by bunting they'll have to adjust their shift accordingly. I can remember several times that the team didn't need a HR and a bunt single would have helped the team a great deal. In fact I can recall very few instances that the shift was not used on Dunn.

Seems to me that ego is the only thing keeping Dunn from bunting.

flyer85 · 08-20-2007, 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

Seems to me that ego is the only thing keeping Dunn from bunting.

I guess it applies to Jr, Howard, Ortiz, Bonds, etc.

Johnny Footstool · 08-20-2007, 05:18 PM

If Dunn were to bunt, he'd be nullifying all of his main strengths -- his power and his ability to work the count. He'd be giving the pitcher an easy AB, plus he'd be trading walks, extra base hits, and strikeouts for bunt singles and pop-up outs to the catcher and pitcher.

And all the Dunn haters would accuse him of selfishly padding his batting average.

08-18-2007, 08:30 PM	#1
jojo Five Tool Fool Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 16,543	Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)... Here's Dunn's line for August thus far (8/18/07): *.271/.410/.646; OPS: 1.056 BABIP: .206* The true three outcome prototype during a power surge... Whether you love him or hate him, he's always good for conversation. __________________ "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

08-18-2007, 10:41 PM	#2
camisadelgolf Vampire Weekend @Bernie's Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Cincinnati, OH Posts: 11,311	Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)... I think the shift is killing him. Maybe that's why he was able to hit for average in the Minor Leagues. __________________ Get MLBtraderumors Reds updates on Facebook. http://www.facebook.com/pages/Reds-R...33794710005587 http://i.imgur.com/1bCKpaH.jpg

08-19-2007, 11:33 AM	#5
RedsManRick Stat Wanker Hodiernus Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 14,903	Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)... There's an argument to be made that Dunn's BABIP will always below because when he truly hits it well, it often leaves the yard. Thus, by omitting homers, we're selecting a set of balls in play that by definition excludes many if not most of Dunn's better contacts. __________________ Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

08-19-2007, 01:27 PM	#9
KronoRed The Lineups stink. Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: West N. Carolina Posts: 55,342	Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)... They could bring in the LF to play 3rd to prevent the bunt, go with 2 OF's __________________ Go Gators!

08-20-2007, 05:18 PM	#15
Johnny Footstool Churlish Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: Olathe, KS Posts: 13,662	Re: Things that make you go hmmmm (or Dunn is just weird)... If Dunn were to bunt, he'd be nullifying all of his main strengths -- his power and his ability to work the count. He'd be giving the pitcher an easy AB, plus he'd be trading walks, extra base hits, and strikeouts for bunt singles and pop-up outs to the catcher and pitcher. And all the Dunn haters would accuse him of selfishly padding his batting average. __________________ "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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