Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, & Brandon Webb

[Johnny Footstool]

Harang ranked 4th in Pitcher Abuse Points in 2005, 3rd in Pitcher Abuse Points in 2006, and he currently ranks 3rd in Pitcher Abuse Points in 2007.

All the more reason for me to be in favor of in shopping Harang.

[mbgrayson]

Originally Posted by Chip R

I think the bullpen has a great deal to do with it. Look at the guys you could go to when you take Peavy, Webb or Santana out as opposed to the guys the Reds had to turn to. You can talk all you want about protecting the future of your top guys but a manager is looking to win as many games as he can to keep his job.

The answer is simple. Krivsky needs to send a directive to the dugout: remove all starters by 110 (or whatever #) pitches. Then hold managers accountable to follow it.

[puca]

That assumes that Krivsky buys into pitch counts. If he did, I'm guessing he would have made that directive already.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by Ltlabner

Out of curosity, what's the pitching track record (in terms of pitches thrown) on Chris Carpenter? Does he have the same high pitch counts and heavy PAP as AH and BA ?

It appears that the Cardinals have tried to take care of Carpenter as best they could. Carpenter has exactly two starts in his Cardinals career of 120+ pitches, with those two outings being 122 pitches and 120 pitches, and both occurred in 2004.

The Blue Jays weren't so careful with Carpenter though earlier in his career. In 1998, he had individual game pitch counts of 134 and 126 pitches. In 1999, he had another 131 pitch game. In 2000, he had outings with 132 pitches and 129 pitches. In 2001, two more long outings at 128 pitches and 125 pitches. Of course it was 2002 and 2003 that he went down with injury in Toronto before he resurfaced with the Cardinals in 2004.

Funny thing is Carpenter was never high on the PAP list while with Toronto, because even 5-10 years ago teams were running high pitch counts on a lot of pitchers. Back in the late 90s and early 00s, some guys were throwing upwards of 140-150 pitches in a game. Now the highest you'll typically see is 130 pitches per game, and that's a rarity.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by mbgrayson

The answer is simple. Krivsky needs to send a directive to the dugout: remove all starters by 110 (or whatever #) pitches. Then hold managers accountable to follow it.

The only manager I've heard of that was fired over pitch counts was Grady Little.

If Wayne wants to make his managers keep his pitchers on pitch counts and make them accountable to follow it, that's fine. But if he doesn't, how can you blame a manager for that?

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by nate

Great stuff!

Because you raised the point, I looked at if there was a difference in pitch count for Harang and Arroyo after Jerry was replaced:

Average number of pitches thrown per start -

Jerry:
Bronson Arroyo: 104
Aaron Harang: 109

Pete:
Bronson Arroyo: 99
Aaron Harang: 100

Or maybe this is more telling:

Number of starts with 120 or more pitches thrown -

Jerry:
Bronson Arroyo: 2
Aaron Harang: 5

Pete:
Bronson Arroyo: 1
Aaron Harang: 1

I honestly don't know what Mackanin's going to be like yet, and part of it is I just don't think his sample is big enough yet. Harang and Arroyo have had one questionable high pitch count game each under Mackanin, and the ironic thing is Harang's back injury was the very next game after his big 10 inning start, and Arroyo got shelled the very next game after Mackanin ran him out there for 123 pitches in late July.

I'm not sure the average pitches per game stat will tell you much. Here's 2007, for example ...

Harang: 106
Arroyo: 102

Webb: 103
Peavy: 107
Santana: 102

The key difference between the Reds pitchers and the big three is that the big three just don't have those individual high pitch count games, and those are the real killers. As Atomic pointed out, when you crack that 120+ pitch territory, the injury risk starts climbing heavily. Pitchers such as Webb, Peavy, and Santana are seemingly always throwing 100, 105, or 110 pitches, but when they get stretched out it's only a few rare starts in the 115 pitch count territory. This is unlike the Reds, who when they stretch out Harang and Arroyo, they're up in the 120 or 125 pitch count territory where the risk is much higher for injury.

Peavy's 2007 gamelog is actually a thing of beauty regarding pitch counts ... http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi...&t=p&year=2007

His average is 107 pitches per game, but look at the gamelog. Bud Black - who is a former pitcher turned pitching coach turned manager - has Peavy consistently throwing roughly the same number of pitches in every start this season, with the lowest being 98 pitches and the highest being 116 pitches (fewer than the high risk territory of 120+ pitches). All but four of Peavy's 27 starts this season have been between 100-114 pitches, with the two outliers being a pair of 98-pitch games and a pair of 116-pitch games.

[dabvu2498]

Originally Posted by mbgrayson

Overall, batters hit .240/.291/.398 off of Harang. From pitches 106 to 120, they are hitting .286/.340/.429.

Reds bullpen this season:

.286/.363/.444

[RedsManRick]

I'm continually amazed how willing managers are to risk the next start, starts, or season by allowing their starters to pitching beyond the point at which they are fatigued.

Often, it seems that the manager is too focused on whether or not a pitcher CAN go back out versus whether or not he SHOULD. As if the next 3 outs (which they quite possibly won't get, since they are tired and thus less effective) were somehow more important than that pitcher's health or effectiveness in the future.

[flyer85]

... and what do the Pads, Snakes and Twinkies all have in common?

Answer: a very solid bullpen.

Hmmm. In the end you need to use your bullpen to protect your starters(far more valuable assets) even if the pitchers in the pen aren't very good.

[Unassisted]

The "Fine China" contingent of RedsZone is sure to weigh in on this thread.

I agree with the posters who've said that the undependability of the bullpen made it difficult for Jerry or Pete to end a quality start just because of a pitch count. Now that the bullpen has improved some, it seems to have made a big difference in the Reds' success at converting quality starts into wins.

The posts about starter abuse have made me think that giving a manager a short-term contract is inviting the manager to abuse the starters, since the 1-year deal sends the message that the manager's job is dependent upon winning now. Maybe those who would like to see Pete given just a 1-year deal should factor that into their equation?

[Always Red]

Originally Posted by Chip R

The only manager I've heard of that was fired over pitch counts was Grady Little.

If Wayne wants to make his managers keep his pitchers on pitch counts and make them accountable to follow it, that's fine. But if he doesn't, how can you blame a manager for that?

This is a classic trade off between short term and long term success.

Pete, and Krivsky (Kriv to maybe a lesser degree) are both in "win-now" mode. They have been directed by Cast to win now. Pete's future directly depends on finishing as close as he can get to the top of the dismal NL Central. Because if he does that and the Reds don't want him, there are other teams out there who have seen what he has done.

The Reds managers this year, and in years past, have not had the relief pitching available to get a guy like Harang out of the game after 100 pitches or so, or they have not had the foresight to do so anyway. Probably a combination of both- especially in Narron's case.

Short term success would lead one to keep a guy in there an extra inning or so. But when you look at mbgrayson's stats from above, that's not really a winning strategy, either.

Long term success would mean getting the SP out of there at a responsible pitch number, saving his arm for the next time around, and hopefully for years after that as well. It might cost you a game here and there, especially if you have a weak bullpen.

This directive, of taking the long view, needs to come directly from the top.

The Reds have invested a ton of money in the right arms of Harang and Arroyo. They have solid statistical evidence of how poorly they both pitch after 110 pitches or so, and in Arroyo's case how it affects him for the next 3-4 starts.

Castellini and Krivsky need to make sure the manager, whomever it is, does the right thing.

[mbgrayson]

Originally Posted by Always Red

This is a classic trade off between short term and long term success.

I disagree. Leaving Harang and Arroyo in up to 120 pitches seems to have four negative effects.

1. Long term risk to their health. This is the classic pitcher abuse theory.
2. Short term risk to their health. This is Harang's bad back, and Arroyo being worn out.
3. Decline in effectiveness after about the 105th pitch, especially for Arroyo.
4. Decline in performance in the start(s) immediately following their high pitch outings.

Of these four effects, only the first is long range. The other three all have short range, 'this season' impacts.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by Chip R

I think the bullpen has a great deal to do with it. Look at the guys you could go to when you take Peavy, Webb or Santana out as opposed to the guys the Reds had to turn to. You can talk all you want about protecting the future of your top guys but a manager is looking to win as many games as he can to keep his job.

Take a real good look at the 2005 Arizona Diamondbacks under Bob Melvin ...

Arizona Bullpen ERA: 5.50
Arizona Bullpen OPSA: .823

NL Bullpen ERA: 4.23
NL Bullpen OPSA: .745

The Diamondbacks had an awful bullpen in 2005, much like the Reds bullpens in recent seasons. Arizona finished 77-85 that season, which is also a won/loss record similar to the Reds in recent seasons.

The Diamondbacks also had a 26-year-old up-and-coming staff ace in Brandon Webb in their rotation yet he ranked only 40th in Pitcher Abuse Points for the season. Webb pitched 229.0 innings for the Diamondbacks that season, a number Harang and Arroyo have topped only once each in their careers.

Here's Webb's top 10 individual pitch count games for 2005: 118, 116, 115, 114, 114, 113, 113, 111, 111, 111, 110

The Diamondbacks as a team stunk. Their bullpen stunk. They also had a new manager in his first season. Yet that new manager took care of their prize pitcher that very same season and did not abuse him anywhere near the level that the Reds have abused Harang and Arroyo. If Bob Melvin could handle Brandon Webb with care in 2005 while also having a lousy bullpen, then why can't the Reds hire a manager who can do the same?

With regards to protecting pitchers, the Reds need to go out and find their own version of Bob Melvin.

[flyer85]

A lot of the blame still has to fall back on the GM. Either the GM is OK with the abuse because both GM or manager are in a "win now" mode or the GM has the wrong manager. Either way it doesn't reflect well on the GM.

[Unassisted]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

If Bob Melvin could handle Brandon Webb with care in 2005 while also having a lousy bullpen, then why can't the Reds hire a manager who can do the same?

With regards to protecting pitchers, the Reds need to go out and find their own version of Bob Melvin.

While I agree with your reasoning, I think your conclusion is flawed. Instead of hiring a new manager, why can't the Reds just insist that their managers handle their starters with care?