Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, & Brandon Webb

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by Unassisted

Instead of hiring a new manager, why can't the Reds just insist that their managers handle their starters with care?

they certainly could, we just haven't seen it to this point.

[Always Red]

Originally Posted by mbgrayson

I disagree. Leaving Harang and Arroyo in up to 120 pitches seems to have four negative effects.

1. Long term risk to their health. This is the classic pitcher abuse theory.
2. Short term risk to their health. This is Harang's bad back, and Arroyo being worn out.
3. Decline in effectiveness after about the 105th pitch, especially for Arroyo.
4. Decline in performance in the start(s) immediately following their high pitch outings.

Of these four effects, only the first is long range. The other three all have short range, 'this season' impacts.

I agree with you; though I obviously didn't state it very clearly.

When I say short term success, I mean that is the goal, in the manager's eyes, of keeping the SP in the game longer than he should. As your eye-opening stats show, he's really just shooting himself in the foot anyway, as they both pitch no better, and in some cases, worse than even a bad bullpen.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by Unassisted

While I agree with your reasoning, I think your conclusion is flawed. Instead of hiring a new manager, why can't the Reds just insist that their managers handle their starters with care?

My conclusion isn't necessarily to hire a new manager. If Pete Mackanin is Bob Melvin v2.0 in regards to protecting pitchers, then I like Pete Mackanin. Of course, right now we don't know much about Mackanin in that sense. My conclusion is whoever the Reds hire in 2008 - whether it's Mackanin or somebody else - that manager does need to be Bob Melvin v2.0, or Bud Black v2.0, or Ron Gardenhire v2.0 when it comes to protecting pitchers.

And yes, the Reds front office absolutely does need to insist that their managers handle their starters with care. Whether that happens, nobody knows, though since Krivsky has seemingly allowed the abuse to happen then the light should shine brightly on him too in addition to the manager.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by Unassisted

While I agree with your reasoning, I think your conclusion is flawed. Instead of hiring a new manager, why can't the Reds just insist that their managers handle their starters with care?

That would be ideal but in the end, even if a manager is coddling his pitchers and the team is losing, he's going to get the axe. Narron was damned if he did and damned if he didn't.

It'd be nice if all organizations told their managers that they don't care about wins and losses, just make sure that they keep the starters on a short leash to protect them and actually follow through with it. But that's a fantasy. Like I said, the only manager I can recall who ever got fired for pitch counts was Grady Little. And that wasn't even a matter of protecting Pedro for the future. It was a matter of Pedro's effectiveness after a certain number of pitches.

[blumj]

Originally Posted by Chip R

That would be ideal but in the end, even if a manager is coddling his pitchers and the team is losing, he's going to get the axe. Narron was damned if he did and damned if he didn't.

It'd be nice if all organizations told their managers that they don't care about wins and losses, just make sure that they keep the starters on a short leash to protect them and actually follow through with it. But that's a fantasy. Like I said, the only manager I can recall who ever got fired for pitch counts was Grady Little. And that wasn't even a matter of protecting Pedro for the future. It was a matter of Pedro's effectiveness after a certain number of pitches.

Sure, but I've yet to see another example of a manager so overtly breaking with known organizational philosophy. There's a reason pretty much everyone knew about the "Pedro rules", and pretty much everyone now knows about the "Joba rules", and most teams don't tell you their rules for anyone. There's some small potential for competitive disadvantage in making things like that public, but the advantage comes when the priority to have those rules carried out takes precedence over even competitive advantage. Making them public absolves the manager of responsibility while increasing the pressure on him to follow them. It obviously wasn't enough in the Pedro/Grady instance to override Grady's belief that he knew better, but it's at least more than just telling him what you want and crossing your fingers that he'll listen. Grady was sure he'd be fired if they lost that game regardless of how they lost it, the fact is that he was at philosophical odds with management all along, so he was probably right.

[DoogMinAmo]

Originally Posted by Chip R

That would be ideal but in the end, even if a manager is coddling his pitchers and the team is losing, he's going to get the axe. Narron was damned if he did and damned if he didn't.

It'd be nice if all organizations told their managers that they don't care about wins and losses, just make sure that they keep the starters on a short leash to protect them and actually follow through with it. But that's a fantasy. Like I said, the only manager I can recall who ever got fired for pitch counts was Grady Little. And that wasn't even a matter of protecting Pedro for the future. It was a matter of Pedro's effectiveness after a certain number of pitches.

Wasn't Dusty Baker fired in Chicago for his abuse of a young pitching staff?

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by DoogMinAmo

Wasn't Dusty Baker fired in Chicago for his abuse of a young pitching staff?

No. He was fired because they had been in a downward spiral since they went to the NLCS (finished in last place in 07) and he had trouble working and playing well with others.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by Chip R

No. He was fired because they had been in a downward spiral since they went to the NLCS (finished in last place in 07)

You mean last year, 06?

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

You mean last year, 06?

Freudian slip.

[nate]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

You mean last year, 06?

Hey, its the Cubs!

[oregonred]

Who are three guys that have never been in my kitchen?

[RedsManRick]

I'm not sure I understand the bullpen comments. Yes, each of those teams have good bullpens. But if you're arguing that avoiding a bad bullpen at the expense of risking severe injury to your starters is the correct decision, than I have a bone to pick.

Sure, our starters might have more wins or slightly lower ERAs given better bullpen support. However, any manager who thinks the team benefits by getting those last 10-15 pitches out of his starter, instead of from a bullpen guy, given the inherent risks is out of his mind. If you need that starter to go 120 to win game 7, or game 162 which puts you in the playoffs, maybe the risk is worth it. But outside of that, it just doesn't make sense to me, regardless of who your bullpen option is.

I don't think it's a case of managers knowing the risk and taking it anyways. I think it's managers not really understanding the risks they're choosing to take when they extend their starters that way.

[Cyclone792]

An update, because it's been about another year ...

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

Jake Peavy has 27 games started now under manager Bud Black (Black was hired on this season). Peavy's highest single game pitch count is 116 pitches, which he's done twice on April 25th and April 30th. Those are actually the only two starts Peavy's made all season in which he's thrown 115+ pitches. Tonight's start against Arizona was Peavy's third highest pitch count game at only 114 pitches. Additionally, Peavy entered tonight's game with 170.2 innings pitched and ranked way down at 45th on the Baseball Prospectus Pitcher Abuse Points chart.

That's zero starts for Peavy this season with 120+ pitches (or even 117+ pitches) and only two starts (7.4 percent) for Peavy this season with 115+ pitches.

Since this original post, here are Peavy's pitch counts at 115+:

127*
118
116
116

Looks like Bud Black got out of control back on July 27th against Pittsburgh as Peavy tossed 127 pitches. Peavy is 11th in PAP this season, though he did miss some time due to injury so it's possible he could be a few spots higher without his DL stint. It will be interesting to watch in the future if Peavy has any struggles in the near future, and if that 127-pitch outing was an anomaly or something that Black may do more often in the future.

Ron Gardenhire took over for the Minnesota Twins in 2002, and he's been the manager for 160 of Johan Santana's career 169 starts. In those 160 starts under Gardenhire, Santana has thrown 120+ pitches exactly one time, which was a 120-pitch outing on April 21st, 2006. Also during that stretch, Santana has only seven other starts in which he threw 115-119 pitches. That's one start with 120+ pitches (0.6 percent) and eight starts with 115+ pitches (5 percent) for Johan Santana under Ron Gardenhire.

In 2004, Santana pitched 228.0 innings yet ranked 72nd in Pitcher Abuse Points. In 2005, he pitched 231.2 innings and ranked 71st in Pitcher Abuse Points. In 2006, he pitched 233.2 innings and ranked 70th in Pitcher Abuse points. This season, Santana has pitched 182.0 innings and currently ranks 49th in Pitcher Abuse Points.

Santana is a Met now and played for Willie Randolph and Jerry Manuel so let's see how he's fared in New York with 115+ pitch count outings:

118
116
116
116

Santana is 17th in MLB in PAP. The Mets have pushed his pitch counts up a tad higher this season than Gardenhire did in Minnesota, and that accounts for the jump in PAP. Still, they haven't gotten out of control and have held him below 120 pitches thus far.

Bob Melvin took over as Diamondbacks manager in 2005, and he has been the manager for 93 Brandon Webb starts. In those 93 starts under Melvin, Webb has thrown 120+ pitches exactly zero times. Also during that stretch, Webb has 13 total outings in which he threw 115-119 pitches, with the 119 pitch outing earlier this season on August 11th being the most pitches Webb has ever thrown under Bob Melvin. Webb has thrown 115+ pitches in 14 percent of his starts under Melvin.

In 2005, Webb pitched 229.0 innings yet ranked 40th in Pitcher Abuse points. In 2006, Webb pitched 235.0 innings and ranked 64th in Pitcher Abuse Points. This season, Webb has pitched 191.2 innings already this season, but only ranks 25th in Pitcher Abuse Points.

Webb's 115+ pitch count outings:



You're not missing anything in that space above; Brandon Webb has zero 115+ pitch count outings since this original post. He has zero outings with 120+ pitches and still only 13 outings at 115-119 pitches, or 10.3 percent.

Let's add this up ...

Three of baseball's best pitchers have 280 combined starts under their current managers over eight total seasons. In those combined 280 starts, the highest single game pitch count total is 120 pitches by Johan Santana, which happened once. That start by Santana is the only start by all three pitchers under their current managers in which they threw 120+ pitches. Those three pitchers have also combined to post only 23 combined outings with even 115+ pitches. That's 23 outings in 280 combined starts, or 8.2 percent of all their starts.

Peavy: 55 starts
Santana: 192 starts
Webb: 126 starts

That's 373 combined starts for those three pitchers. In 31 of those starts, those three pitchers have thrown 115+ pitches, or 8.3 percent, which is right at their average as of last season. They also have two starts out of 373 in which they've thrown 120+ pitches, Peavy's 127-pitch outing last month and a 120-pitch outing by Santana a few years back.

For comparison sake, what have the Reds (i.e. mostly Jerry Narron) done to Aaron Harang since 2005 and Bronson Arroyo since 2006?

Harang has 94 starts for the Reds since the 2005 season, and he's thrown 120+ pitches 12 times in those 94 starts (12.8 percent). Included in those 120+ pitch outings are individual outings of 135 pitches, 131 pitches, 126 pitches, and 125 pitches. He's thrown 115+ pitches in 25 of his 94 starts, or 26.6 percent of his starts since 2005.

Harang ranked 4th in Pitcher Abuse Points in 2005, 3rd in Pitcher Abuse Points in 2006, and he currently ranks 3rd in Pitcher Abuse Points in 2007.

Arroyo has 62 starts for the Reds since being acquired in 2006, and he's thrown 120+ pitches six times in those 62 starts (9.7 percent). Included in those 120+ pitch outings are individual outings of 129 pitches and 127 pitches. He's thrown 115+ pitches in 17 of his 62 starts, or 27.4 percent of his starts since 2006.

Arroyo ranked 6th in Pitcher Abuse Points in 2006, and he currently ranks 4th in Pitcher Abuse Points in 2007.

That's 156 combined starts for Harang (since 2005) and Arroyo (since 2006) under primarily Jerry Narron, with a little bit of Dave Miley and Pete Mackanin thrown in. They've thrown 120+ pitches 18 times in those 156 starts (11.5 percent), and they've thrown 115+ pitches 42 times (26.9 percent).

The good news is that Dusty Baker hasn't abused Harang or Arroyo this season with regards to high pitch counts. Now using Harang out of the bullpen, well ... we know that story. Other bad news is that both pitchers have gotten their teeth kicked in so much that I'm not even sure if Dusty could abuse them with high pitch count outings even if he wanted too.

Anyhow, we're aware of all the abuse that Harang and Arroyo went through in previous seasons. We're also now aware of how lousy they've performed this season: in 274 innings they've allowed 50 home runs and have thrown up an impressive 5.55 ERA. At the time of the original post last season, the Reds had pushed Harang and Arroyo to 115+ pitch outings in nearly 27 percent of their starts compared to the Peavy/Santana/Webb trio who were only at just over 8 percent of their starts.

Peavy, despite his short DL stint, Santana, and Webb are all having pretty nice seasons - again - this season. They've been protected fairly well in recent seasons, and they continue to produce.

Would Harang and Arroyo be having these lousy seasons if they weren't abused in previous seasons? It's impossible to claim for sure, however, what I am fairly certain of is that the chances of them not pitching like total crap this year would have been lessened had they been protected in previous seasons.

And that's the goal with protecting pitchers: to give your team it's best probability of keeping those pitchers healthy and productive in future seasons. From 2005-07, the Reds did not do that with Harang and Arroyo. And it's certainly possible that they could very well be paying that price right now.

[lollipopcurve]

Peavy, despite his short DL stint, Santana, and Webb are all having pretty nice seasons - again - this season. They've been protected fairly well in recent seasons, and they continue to produce.

Would Harang and Arroyo be having these lousy seasons if they weren't abused in previous seasons? It's impossible to claim for sure, however, what I am fairly certain of is that the chances of them not pitching like total crap this year would have been lessened had they been protected in previous seasons.

And that's the goal with protecting pitchers: to give your team it's best probability of keeping those pitchers healthy and productive in future seasons. From 2005-07, the Reds did not do that with Harang and Arroyo. And it's certainly possible that they could very well be paying that price right now.

Great stuff, Cyclone.

Handlers of Volquez and Cueto, take note!
__________________

[wally post]

Wow. You can send this thread to the Smithsonian! Thank you so much, Cyclone!