Looking to see who can be centerfield

[lollipopcurve]

If the Reds were going to go after a mediocre type starter, they should at least get a guy that gets his outs based on his K's. Not a guy that relies on his team to make plays. A Daniel Cabrera (not that I want him) that K's lots and walks lots and for the most part controls his own destiny.

Come on. You either want him or you don't. Cabrera is interesting, but I guarantee you that Baltimore will be looking for significant talent if they put him on the market, and they'll get it. I think it's possible Votto might do the trick. But keep in mind that Cabrera has not progressed under Leo Mazzone. If Mazzone signs off on shipping him out, does that mean that, like they say about pitchers Atlanta would trade away, he's more suspect than prospect?

[jojo]

Mike Cameron isn't really a good center fielder anymore.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

Mike Cameron will be 35-years-old in January, and if center field defense hasn't gone in the toilet by that time, it's usually not far off the corner. I'd be looking to acquire younger players, especially for center field, not a guy who would already be 35 heading into Opening Day 2008.

Normally I'd agree, but Cameron is a superior athlete and one of the fittest players in the game. Different sport, but he reminds me of Darrell Green. Cameron's still as fast as they come. If he were slowing down I might worry, but he's not. Cameron would dust most "fast" players. My guess is his bat is going to go before his glove does and that he'll be kind of like Steve Finley, playing a quality CF well into his late 30s.

Hunter and Jones have thicker lower bodies and they aren't the speed merchants they once were. Despite the age, they strike me as a lot more shaky propositions than Cameron when it comes to playing a lusty CF for the next three years.

[M2]

Originally Posted by jojo

Mike Cameron isn't really a good center fielder anymore.

RZR and Win Shares would disagree with you vociferously. Where'd Dewan have him last year?

[lollipopcurve]

If the Reds are going to do a serious rebuild (the sort of thing where they import scads of upper minors talents) then I could live with some veteran filler in the rotation in order to let kids like Cueto mature on the farm a bit more. Yet if the plan is to make your best effort at winning something in 2008 then Carlos Silva needs to be nixed off the board.

Well, Silva can be a #5 on a winning team, I think.

So, M2, what are you recommending? If you're Krivsky, what plan do you put in place? Seems to me we agree that trading Griffey is a good move. He may have value for a team like Seattle, the Cubs, the Tigers.... At the very least you get salary relief and a better defensive outfield. Dunn is the next consideration. If you pick up the option, you're either trying to win or you're confident you can get talent for him in a post-June 15 trade (kind of a strange notion, since suitors are unlikely to offer much talent if they're willing to pay his contract for you). So, let's assume you're trying to win with Dunner... where will the pitching come from?

Keep in mind that the team is 3 starters short of a rotation, 2 if you're still counting on Belisle. If you go and find that undervalued guy, you're still short. You still need another pitcher who can do what I think Silva can do. You say it's about body count, and I agree -- the Reds need more than 1 guy here. That's why I say get started ASAP in the free agent market. Not only does it knock one pitcher off your to-do list, but it may send a message to other free agents (Rowand, Cameron?) that the team is on the move, the team means business. Because it will be well-known that if this team is really serious about competing, they have to get some starters...yet, if they're looking to do so on the cheap, well, it's probably going to look like the same ole Reds to a free agent who wants to win and, while the team may have a nice personality, that's not attractive.

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Come on. You either want him or you don't. Cabrera is interesting, but I guarantee you that Baltimore will be looking for significant talent if they put him on the market, and they'll get it. I think it's possible Votto might do the trick. But keep in mind that Cabrera has not progressed under Leo Mazzone. If Mazzone signs off on shipping him out, does that mean that, like they say about pitchers Atlanta would trade away, he's more suspect than prospect?

I was only using Cabrera as an example. Not neccessarily him, but if you are going to get a mediocre guy, you may as well get the mediocre guy that fits with the rest of the team.

Silva isn't that guy, Cabrerea is. I wouldn't want to give up what it would take to get Cabrera. I only used his name as the "type" of mediocre pitcher that fits with the rest of the team.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

That's why I say get started ASAP in the free agent market. Not only does it knock one pitcher off your to-do list, but it may send a message to other free agents (Rowand, Cameron?) that the team is on the move, the team means business.

I hear the Orioles are "on the move" and "really mean business". They spent a lot of money in FA last year on mediocre players. Some succeeded at being mediocre, some failed to achieve even that. They're left with very little payroll flex and a losing record.

If the mediocre FA talent we sign is merely the means to an end, namely the acquisition of good players in FA, we're in trouble. Good players won't want to come here simply because we've signed mediocre ones. And if we've signed mediocre ones, where do we get the cash to sign good players?

Good players will want to sign here once we establish a history & culture of winning. That doesn't happen by spending 10% of your payroll on a #4 starter. We've been down that road. We signed Eric Milton. We gave hefty extensions to Sean Casey and Danny Graves. It just leads you to another mediocre season and tighter budget.

If you're going to spend money in FA and are you aren't the Yankees or Sox, you need to be getting a sure thing in terms of performance -- something you can't develop anytime soon or can't trade for. If we can't develop or trade for a Carlos Silva, we might as well just quit now.

I think you have the right basic idea. This team needs a fundamental reorganization of talent and payroll to achieve success. I just disagree with you on the specifics.

[lollipopcurve]

Normally I'd agree, but Cameron is a superior athlete and one of the fittest players in the game. Different sport, but he reminds me of Darrell Green. Cameron's still as fast as they come. If he were slowing down I might worry, but he's not. Cameron would dust most "fast" players. My guess is his bat is going to go before his glove does and that he'll be kind of like Steve Finley, playing a quality CF well into his late 30s.

Hunter and Jones have thicker lower bodies and they aren't the speed merchants they once were. Despite the age, they strike me as a lot more shaky propositions than Cameron when it comes to playing a lusty CF for the next three years.

I could get behind Cameron, easily. He knows the league, which would help with his positioning as his range declines. There's a lot less ground to cover than in San Diego. He's a leader, which is important. He can still hit -- and with his power to right-center, look out in GAB. He'd be great -- but as a Georgia guy, is he angling for Atlanta?

[jojo]

Originally Posted by M2

RZR and Win Shares would disagree with you vociferously.

Both are flawed but winshares is especially so concerning defense.

Dewan's plus/minus data hasn't been released for '06. It loved Cameron in '03 but hated him in '04. He was a RFer in '05 of course and Dewan's system suggested Cameron was a roughly average defensive one. UZR pretty much agrees with Dewan's system over these seasons although UZR liked Cameron last season. This year, UZR suggests that Cameron is a minus defender. It's probably not a coincidence that Cameron graded lower after leaving Safeco following the '03 season because I think the combination of the Puget Sound and the large Safeco outfield probably cause their defenders in left and center to get a bonus.

[lollipopcurve]

I think you have the right basic idea. This team needs a fundamental reorganization of talent and payroll to achieve success. I just disagree with you on the specifics.

I think the idea is that you overspend for what you can't supply yourself -- starting pitching, the most important component of a team -- not for what you can supply yourself -- LH power.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

I think the idea is that you overspend for what you can't supply yourself -- starting pitching, the most important component of a team -- not for what you can supply yourself -- LH power.

Starting pitching is extremely overvalued on the open market...

[lollipopcurve]

Starting pitching is extremely overvalued on the open market...

So, if they ignore the free agents, how should the Reds fill out their rotation for 2008?

[M2]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

So, M2, what are you recommending?

I mentioned some this in strands elsewhere, but here's the short version:

1) I don't care about salary relief because A) I never do, B) league revenues keep exploding, C) there's literally tens of millions coming off the Reds' books

2) Like I said, since the needed pitching isn't available via free agency the Reds are going to have to make trades. Carlos Silva might be a workable #5 on a good team, but it would be insanity for the Reds to pay a free agent premium for a #5 guy. The Reds have invested the time and innings in Belisle's taking lumps period. I don't expect him to net the rewards that Harang did, but he could be at least as good as Lohse was and a good bit better than what you'd likely get from Silva.

So that's two starters you need. My only untouchables would be Jay Bruce and Aaron Harang. Brandon Phillips would only go if I were overwhelmed. Since it's early September I can't tell you what pitchers might be on the trade market. Teams have to set budgets and offseason plans first, even then it's fluid. Maybe a Jr. or Dunn could land you a kid worth a major league apprenticeship in 2008. Maybe some of your better prospects can land you an established guy. Maybe a David Weathers or Scott Hatteberg can land you a kid who you think has wrongly been labeled a disappointment. Maybe it costs you a Hamilton or an Encarnacion to get an arm you really like.

3) The team needs more than just starting pitchers. Bullpen, catcher, CF, depth and I wouldn't turn my nose up at a young SS if the right one came available (Alex Gonzalez could be dealt). Dependent on what goes out the door, new needs might arise. For instance, say Encarnacion and Votto head out, then the club might be shopping for some 3B and 1B help.

4) Realize that it might take more than offseason to assemble all the pieces. The Reds have a lot to do. I'm an advocate of big changes, of an aggressive roster turnover. I don't think the Reds have dared nearly enough. Some deals may have to wait for early to midseason in 2008. Next year's Reds would be a work in progress if I had my druthers, but the goal would be that come the next offseason, I'd be put the finishing touches on a much better team that was geared up to contend into the middle of the next decade. Easier said than done I know.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

So, if they ignore the free agents, how should the Reds fill out their rotation for 2008?

Harang, Arroyo, Homer, Belisle, Cueto, Maloney, arm X.

I'm staunchly against signing any starter to a contract longer than three years except in rare exceptions (of which I don't see any in the '08 FA market). Whittle the FA list down to guys who'd take three years of less and I think the money is better spent elsewhere.

My radical, food for thought suggestion-if you can't buy pitching smartly, load up on offense while trying to upgrade your defense if possible.

I'd join the Arod sweepstakes and assuming EE couldn't be flipped as part of a deal, EE and Votto would platoon at first. I'd give Jr away if that is what it took and I'd have an outfield of Dunn, Bruce and Hamilton.

[11larkin11]

I'm willing to let Hamilton man CF with Dunn and Griffey/Bruce for the next couple years. I'd rather have the offense of Dunn-Hamilton-Griffey/Bruce than sign a guy who has maybe one step on Hamilton. His a good CF, no need to go waste money on a great defensive CF with no offense, like most on the market are this year.