Looking to see who can be centerfield

[M2]

lollipop, while I like the total overhaul idea in the OF, I can't get behind not picking up Dunn's option. The Reds have to get some talent for him even if it's only draft picks in 2009. Not only can't money buy you love, it won't buy the Reds the talent they need to turn this ship around. Body count is essential.

On top of that, I want exactly zero free agent starting pitchers. Well, I'd take Andy Pettitte, but the Reds aren't going to be signing him. Silva ... no. There's a lot of pitchers under the sun and he's one I wouldn't want to see in a Reds uniform.

[lollipopcurve]

All this said, I think the real problem is hypothesizing that we'll be able to sign any top FA talent. Top FA talents don't sign to play in Cincinnati unless we overpay the significantly and that's not a business model I would want to use.

How do you know this administration can't sign FAs? They didn't dip into the 07 market, so we can't say with any certainty whether FAs would come here or not. I happen to think that offensive players will come to Cincy. Pitchers, well, we'll see. If you don't like the business model of overpaying for pitchers in $$$, then you're limited to developing all of them on your own (good luck), or paying dearly for them with your best young talent (which will create other holes....). Like I said before, it's the price of doing business in major league baseball, like it or not.

Right now, the Reds have stumbled into a window where they can put a cheap, decent offense on the field. The opportunity is there to spend on pitching, and while Silva may not excite, I do think he can be valuable/steady in the NL. The Reds rotation is in tatters, folks, they've got Harang, Arroyo and nothing else you can count on -- a guy who can give you 185 league-average, or close to league-average innings is someone who can help you start -- just start -- to stitch together your pitching staff. But start they must. Maybe the Reds can find such a guy under a rock -- if you think so, I'd love to hear names....

[puca]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

How do you know this administration can't sign FAs? They didn't dip into the 07 market, so we can't say with any certainty whether FAs would come here or not. I happen to think that offensive players will come to Cincy. Pitchers, well, we'll see. If you don't like the business model of overpaying for pitchers in $$$, then you're limited to developing all of them on your own (good luck), or paying dearly for them with your best young talent (which will create other holes....). Like I said before, it's the price of doing business in major league baseball, like it or not.

Right now, the Reds have stumbled into a window where they can put a cheap, decent offense on the field. The opportunity is there to spend on pitching, and while Silva may not excite, I do think he can be valuable/steady in the NL. The Reds rotation is in tatters, folks, they've got Harang, Arroyo and nothing else you can count on -- a guy who can give you 185 league-average, or close to league-average innings is someone who can help you start -- just start -- to stitch together your pitching staff. But start they must. Maybe the Reds can find such a guy under a rock -- if you think so, I'd love to hear names....

The Carlos Silva of 2007 is servicable, however the Carlos Silva of 2006 was about as bad a pitcher as you could find. It's just not worth the gamble considering the money and years it would take to get him here.

[lollipopcurve]

The Reds have to get some talent for him even if it's only draft picks in 2009. Not only can't money buy you love, it won't buy the Reds the talent they need to turn this ship around. Body count is essential.

On top of that, I want exactly zero free agent starting pitchers. Well, I'd take Andy Pettitte, but the Reds aren't going to be signing him. Silva ... no. There's a lot of pitchers under the sun and he's one I wouldn't want to see in a Reds uniform.

M2, they'll get 2 picks by letting Dunn walk this year. And even if there are no FA pitchers you want, you're going to need the dough for a CF. I mean, you want the Reds in this market for a centerfielder, right?

My take is that there are only a limited number of markets for the Reds to shop in, and their shortage of starting pitching is now dire. I would prefer to see them take a chance on 1 pitcher out of this market so that they may luck into a serviceable rotation next year (say Belisle improves and a young guy or journeyman surprises). If they ignore the FA market, then they're doing one of 3 things:

1. punting 08
2. dealing kids for someone better than Silva (Oswalt has a no-trade clause, by the way), and I am very wary of that without knowing who that pitcher might be
3. bottomfeeding again -- who's ready for that?

I happen to like Carlos Silva better than most, I guess. Same went for Lohse. Redszone is a tough crowd when it comes to pitchers -- nobody thought Lilly or Marquis would help the Cubs, remember? You got to start somewhere, cuz going in to 08 this rotation is about 600 innings short.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

My OF is Hamilton -- Rowand/Cameron/Hunter -- Bruce. FAR better defensively than what's out there now. A lot cheaper, allowing for talent upgrade elsewhere. Less susceptible to catastrophic injury (that's Griffey). Probably a downgrade offensively, but not for long, and probably not against LH pitching.

Mike Cameron will be 35-years-old in January, and if center field defense hasn't gone in the toilet by that time, it's usually not far off the corner. I'd be looking to acquire younger players, especially for center field, not a guy who would already be 35 heading into Opening Day 2008.

Torii Hunter has also played more than half his career games on astroturf, which is the same stuff that's known to tear player's knees up. Given that he already turned 32 in July and has played the bulk of his career on turf, he's the type of guy I'm staying away from.

Defensively, Rowand is the best option of the three, but he doesn't come without some possible question marks. He's played just about his entire career in home run hitting ball parks similar to GABP, and it's shown in his career splits given that his home OPS is over 40 points higher than his road OPS, much of that difference in slugging percentage. That lifetime road OPS - which is .783 - is something I'd be quite leery about. Even this season, Rowand's road OPS is still only .811 vs. a 1.004 OPS at the hitter's paradise known as Citizen's Bank. So while the common given among acquiring offensive players is that some type of GABP boost in power is to be expected, that likely wouldn't be the case with Rowand since GABP would play very similar to the parks he's used to playing in.

Additionally, and this shouldn't be forgotten, Rowand's style of play is similar to that of Ryan Freel. While fans typically love it - and we all know Reds fans would love the guy - it's a style of play that leaves him prone to locating the DL and wrecking his body since he's never met an outfield wall that he doesn't love running into. He's the type of player I'd place a higher percentage on to break down earlier than the typical player.

I know the common wisdom on Jay Bruce seems to be that he's the type of player that should move to right field, but for now I'd rather shelve that possibly flawed idea and see what he can do out there.

All the reasons I've heard for the so-called inevitable position switch is Bruce will fill out; well, he's already bulked up to around 220lbs, and he seemed to still play a solid center field in the minor leagues this season. So solid, in fact, that the Reds ordered Bruce to play the bulk of the games in Louisville in center rather while moving the speedy Dickerson to a corner. Josh Hamilton looks rather chiseled out on the field, he's an inch or two taller than Bruce, and he's tipping the scales at 235lbs, just 15 pounds heavier than Bruce. It can be reasonably expected for Bruce to gain another 10 pounds or so, but if he's filling out well past Hamilton's 235 then there's going to be a Miguel Cabrera type problem on the Reds' hands, and I honestly don't expect that to happen.

If Jay Bruce is playing center field in 2009, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he'll then be a better defensive center fielder than both Mike Cameron and Torii Hunter. The human body itself makes that a pretty good bet. Cameron will be 36 that season, and Hunter will be 34. Bruce, meanwhile, will only be 22. I'll take the fresh, young legs over the aged, battered legs.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

M2, they'll get 2 picks by letting Dunn walk this year. And even if there are no FA pitchers you want, you're going to need the dough for a CF. I mean, you want the Reds in this market for a centerfielder, right?

My take is that there are only a limited number of markets for the Reds to shop in, and their shortage of starting pitching is now dire. I would prefer to see them take a chance on 1 pitcher out of this market so that they may luck into a serviceable rotation next year (say Belisle improves and a young guy or journeyman surprises). If they ignore the FA market, then they're doing one of 3 things:

1. punting 08
2. dealing kids for someone better than Silva (Oswalt has a no-trade clause, by the way), and I am very wary of that without knowing who that pitcher might be
3. bottomfeeding again -- who's ready for that?

I happen to like Carlos Silva better than most, I guess. Same went for Lohse. Redszone is a tough crowd when it comes to pitchers -- nobody thought Lilly or Marquis would help the Cubs, remember? You got to start somewhere, cuz going in to 08 this rotation is about 600 innings short.

You have to offer Dunn arbitration to get those picks. It's no guarantee that he walks with arbitration on the table.

What can you reasonable expect from Silva -- best case scenario? A 4.25 ERA and 180 IP? Is that worth 10M? Maybe. What if it's 5.25? Is it worth 10M every year for the next 4?

Money not spent in 2008 does not disappear in to thin air. Spend it on a better option in 2009. Use it on a high priced guy you can trade for who's a better bet to contribute. Spending 15% of our payroll on a guy who has an upside of a being a league average starter and the downside of being replacement level or worse is not a risk worth taking. It's Eric Milton 2.0.

Not being players in FA and punting are not the same thing by any stretch. Who did the Diamondbacks sign in FA last year? Nobody. How about the Angels? Gary Matthews and his .750 OPS aren't the reason they're contenders. Same with the DFA'd Hillenbrand. Indians? Trot Nixon and Dave Delucci have really paid off. Borowski has 40 saves and an ERA higher than Matt Belisle. Byrd has worked out and is the best case scenario for Silva. (2 years, 14.25M won't get you Silva though).

Development is the key. Without development of our top prospects, FA activity is wasted. With development of our top prospects, significant FA is a risk not worth taking. I'd be behind a Paul Byrdesque, low risk deal for a starter. But that doesn't require shedding salary from our current spot so is a parallel discussion to this one. It's frustrating to feel like the team isn't doing anything to try and win. However, we shouldn't equate avoiding the FA market with not doing anything.

[IslandRed]

That's a good point, Cyclone. Bruce profiles best as a right fielder down the road, but what about right now? He's 20, and a terrific natural athlete. If he can play an average or better center field for a few years, why not? No need to move him to a corner on account of a step he hasn't lost yet, right?

Now, I have no idea if he can play a good major-league center field; the Reds' moving Dickerson out of his way suggests the team thinks he might be able to, at least. The Hamilton/Bruce/neither in CF question is a critical one going into the offseason. I hope they get it right.

[IslandRed]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

You have to offer Dunn arbitration to get those picks. It's no guarantee that he walks with arbitration on the table.

Not guaranteed, but it's an acceptable risk. He's going into free agency at a peak age. This is the time guys look for that multi-year deal that's going to set them for life. Hard to imagine he'd turn down those offers for the sake of a single-year arb deal with us, unless those offers don't come. And even if he did, we were going to pay him $13.5 million anyway. He'd make more in arb but not ridiculously more.

Having said that, I'm not in favor of that strategy. I'm still wanting them to pick up his option and give the trade thing another go if we're not in contention next deadline.

[lollipopcurve]

Money not spent in 2008 does not disappear in to thin air. Spend it on a better option in 2009.

No, but the opportunity to pick up a player who can help does disappear. Put all your eggs in the 2009 basket without knowing for sure who will be there? Tomorrow, tomorrow, and tomorrow...

Gary Matthews and his .750 OPS aren't the reason they're contenders. Same with the DFA'd Hillenbrand. Indians? Trot Nixon and Dave Delucci have really paid off. Borowski has 40 saves and an ERA higher than Matt Belisle. Byrd has worked out and is the best case scenario for Silva. (2 years, 14.25M won't get you Silva though).

Several of these guys have helped their teams. Your point?

Development is the key. Without development of our top prospects, FA activity is wasted. With development of our top prospects, significant FA is a risk not worth taking. I'd be behind a Paul Byrdesque, low risk deal for a starter. But that doesn't require shedding salary from our current spot so is a parallel discussion to this one.

Yeah, development is key, but I don't think Bailey or Cueto or Maloney can be counted on for 08. 09, I think we can hope for something, at least from one of them or a surprise like Fisher, Lecure or Jukich, who knows. In the meantime, during this Arroyo-Harang window that runs 2008-2010, it would be nice to get another reliable starter in place ASAP. If you'd like to point out who the Paul Byrd of 2008 will be, feel free. I fail to see how it's a given that guy can't be Carlos Silva.

More ruminations on Silva... He's Venezuelan. Maybe Gonzo can help convince him to sign with the Reds.... Sure would be nice to have an experienced Spanish-speaking starter to help Cueto transition into the bigs.....

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by puca

The Carlos Silva of 2007 is servicable, however the Carlos Silva of 2006 was about as bad a pitcher as you could find. It's just not worth the gamble considering the money and years it would take to get him here.

Well he's really somewhere in the middle of the those 2 seasons. He's a 4.50-4.65 ERA type that relies on defense. Because he's dependent upon defense, he's a disgustingly poor fit for this team.

Below average pitcher + Lots of balls in play + Bad Defense = Nightmare

So I agree with your premise that he's not worth the money, but I'm not sure everyone understands just how bad he would be. He's a guy I wouldn't want as anything more than depth. Giving him a bunch of money and guaranteed seasons would be an absolute disaster.

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

More ruminations on Silva... He's Venezuelan. Maybe Gonzo can help convince him to sign with the Reds.... Sure would be nice to have an experienced Spanish-speaking starter to help Cueto transition into the bigs.....

I can buy into the notion that he's not that bad a pitcher. For many teams he could be a fine 4-5 starter.

But he is about the worst possible fit for this team. If the Reds had a top notch defense to make use of a guy with his traits, he could be helpful. As it stands, he's going to give up plenty of balls in play, and the hits will rack up. And even though he has sound ground ball tendencies, he will give up lots of homers in Cincy. He's always been able to serve them up at a decent rate.

If the Reds were going to go after a mediocre type starter, they should at least get a guy that gets his outs based on his K's. Not a guy that relies on his team to make plays. A Daniel Cabrera (not that I want him) that K's lots and walks lots and for the most part controls his own destiny.

Giving a guy like Silva that would implode because of his surroundings a truck load of money is suicide.

[Rojo]

Back to centerfield. Just throwing this out there -- Chris Duffy.

[lollipopcurve]

So I agree with your premise that he's not worth the money, but I'm not sure everyone understands just how bad he would be. He's a guy I wouldn't want as anything more than depth. Giving him a bunch of money and guaranteed seasons would be an absolute disaster.

I'm also proposing a revamped outfield that solidifies the defense out there. Phillips-Gonzo-EdE is a solid defensive infield. We're not talking about a bad defense any more. The guy's a groundball pitcher, and it seems this year he's figured out a way to keep the ball in the ballpark. You seem to be suggesting that only guys who miss bats are acceptable -- a trusty Redszone cliche -- but the truth is those guys are rarely available.

People need to deal with the reality of the markets in play here -- for the most part it's the mediocre guys who don't get extended and find their way to free agency. You can't trade for above average pitchers without bankrupting your farm, and that may well be for a guy you control for only a very short time. If a real good pitcher becomes a free agent, the big markets get him.

It's easy to shoot down specific suggestions. That's fine. I realize Silva is not our savior. But, come up with a viable strategy and some names, would ya?

[M2]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

M2, they'll get 2 picks by letting Dunn walk this year. And even if there are no FA pitchers you want, you're going to need the dough for a CF. I mean, you want the Reds in this market for a centerfielder, right?

There's already something in the neighborhood of $25M coming off the books and that's before the annual windfall in league revenues which should enable the Reds to spend a good bit if they're so inclined. Frankly, draft picks for Dunn would be my worst case scenario, so I wouldn't go rushing to get there. I'd prefer to get some kids farther along if the plan is to deal Dunn. Beyond that, if the Reds don't pick up the option I'm thinking they'll be too timid to risk the arbitration offer.

As for the CF, free agency wouldn't be my primary option. Jones and Hunter are going to cost too much. Rowand's probably going to cost more than I think he's worth because people are going to be buying his career season and not his norm. Cameron won't be cheap, but he might cost under $10M and you won't have to shell out more than three years for him. Since moving Jr. would be my first OF reorganization priority (move the 38-year-old before you move the 28-year-old), there'd be lots of money under the tree for a CF and pitching even if Dunn stays.

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

My take is that there are only a limited number of markets for the Reds to shop in, and their shortage of starting pitching is now dire. I would prefer to see them take a chance on 1 pitcher out of this market so that they may luck into a serviceable rotation next year (say Belisle improves and a young guy or journeyman surprises).

My take is that's a case of playing the market to play the market. I'm real choosy on pitchers and as I look down the free agent list for this winter I keep ticking off the "no"s. It's just a list of bad pitchers you'd have to overpay. Perhaps there'll be a guy who slips through the cracks in the late market (essentially a journeyman) who can hold down a spot. Since there's nothing I want in the market, I wouldn't do any shopping there.

Obviously that forces you into the trade market. It's not easy to pluck your pitching that way, but if you don't have it and it's not there for the signing on the free agent market then you've got to play in the trade waters.

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

If they ignore the FA market, then they're doing one of 3 things:

1. punting 08
2. dealing kids for someone better than Silva (Oswalt has a no-trade clause, by the way), and I am very wary of that without knowing who that pitcher might be
3. bottomfeeding again -- who's ready for that?

1. I tend to subscribe to the notion that the Reds' practice of gearing up for a stab at .500 each season almost always sacrifices next year as a result. 2008 may already be lost because of the rebuilding they didn't do before 2007. If it's lather, rinse, repeat this offseason then we're probably having the same conversation next year about 2009 this time next year.
2. You can deal for all sorts of things. Look at the Reds' top two pitchers. They came in exchange for Jose Guillen and Wily Mo Pena. There's pure prospects. There's underrated talents. There's fallen prospects. There's distressed contracts from innings eaters to guys who've had a bad season to flat out good pitchers working for cheap teams.
3. Bottomfeeding gets a bad name sometimes. For instance, Wayne Krivsky is an excellent bottomfeeder when it comes to position players. That hasn't been the case with him and pitching to date. He could stand to have an assistant GM whose sole job is to find and collect arms. Get someone to cover your blindspot. Anyway, being able to pluck an overlooked arm for an inexpensive one-year gig would be a heck of a smart idea for a GM with a discerning eye for pitching.

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

I happen to like Carlos Silva better than most, I guess. Same went for Lohse. Redszone is a tough crowd when it comes to pitchers -- nobody thought Lilly or Marquis would help the Cubs, remember? You got to start somewhere, cuz going in to 08 this rotation is about 600 innings short.

I agree about the rotation being short (though, barring injury, I've got closer to 400 IP). Lilly and Marquis have got me scratching my head. Actually I'm not scratching my head on Marquis. He's been ridiculously lucky and the Cubs had better hope the season doesn't come down to his arm (think Steve Parris). Lilly's making a good case that the NL is an inferior league. Lohse has made a similar case. That said, having Kyle Lohse around didn't get the Reds within a country mile of being a good team. If he proved anything it's that the club needs better. It gets right back to the thing I mentioned about scrapping the "just enough" mentality that's infected this franchise for too long.

If the Reds are going to do a serious rebuild (the sort of thing where they import scads of upper minors talents) then I could live with some veteran filler in the rotation in order to let kids like Cueto mature on the farm a bit more. Yet if the plan is to make your best effort at winning something in 2008 then Carlos Silva needs to be nixed off the board.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Rojo

Back to centerfield. Just throwing this out there -- Chris Duffy.

He had a .301/.372/.420 line in the minors. He might be a good stealth option.