Bray and Majewski -- Over one year later

[WVRedsFan]

Folks, this just isn't working.

Tonight with the game 0-0, Pete brings in Bill Bray. I know there's a lot of folks on this board and none other than Wayne Krivsky who think Bray is the bomb. Same with Gary Majewski. He followed Bray after he allowed two hits and an intentional walk. After a hard line drive went for an out, the next batter gets a broken bat single to win the game for the Giants. That was just before George Grande said that Krivsky expects Bray and Majewski to "anchor" the bullpen next year. God help us.

In the last 10 games they've pitched in, they have collectedly pitched 14 innings, giving up 19 hits and 15 earned runs. Wow. It's either Krivsky ego refuses to admit that his prized pick-ups are not that great (remember when we got Bray and Guardado back we would be fine), or he is no judge of talent. Whatever.

I don't want Kearns or Lopez back, but Kearns playing right might be better than Ellison or Coats, but that's neither here nor there. There's a lot of work to be done on our bullpen and I hope Krivsky isn't hoping that the answer is Bray and Majewski. If he thinks that we are more than doomed.

[pedro]

Bill Bray has pitched all of 12 innings this year. I hardly think you can evaluate his future based on that.

[Aronchis]

Bray's successes in the minors had more to due with a crafty than a electric arm. His location has been horrid since his return.

I saw Ty Pelland on tv pitching late in the year with the Bats, he had a clearly more electric arm.

Bray's got some work to do over the Holidays.

[WVRedsFan]

Originally Posted by pedro

Bill Bray has pitched all of 12 innings this year. I hardly think you can evaluate his future based on that.

Heck, I don't know anything about pitching other than the results. The results are clearly not good and this is over a period of time. His career in Cincinnati has been spotty and you can't take minor league statistics as proof of success in the major leagues. The truth is, he is very hittble and has horrible location so far. Tonight, he and Majewski were laying it over the middle of the plate with the obvious results. And this against a team who simply is clueless about hitting MLB pitching. What separates Bray from Stanton? Not much because the results are basically the same.

It matters not, the point of my post was to say that if these two guys are the anchors of the bullpen, I don't want to see the other relievers Krivsky will bring in. You can argue "potential" or "mechanics" or whatever in the world you want, but what happens between the lines is all that matters. On that point, these guys stink up the place and I don't expect much better because all I've seen is what we saw tonight.

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by WVRedsFan

Heck, I don't know anything about pitching other than the results. The results are clearly not good and this is over a period of time. His career in Cincinnati has been spotty and you can't take minor league statistics as proof of success in the major leagues. The truth is, he is very hittble and has horrible location so far. Tonight, he and Majewski were laying it over the middle of the plate with the obvious results. And this against a team who simply is clueless about hitting MLB pitching. What separates Bray from Stanton? Not much because the results are basically the same.

Again, it's 12 innings. You can't look at a sample of that size and make a fair comparison to a guy like Stanton who has been putrid for quite some time.

You say he's hittable, but in his 12 innings he has a K/9 of 9.00, in the minors 13.74. I wouldn't call that hittable. He has a K/BB of 3.00. I'm not suggesting Bray is all god worthy right now or anything, but he hasn't been bad so far. His BAPIP now is over .380, so his struggles are mainly due to bad luck and bad defense. Provided a bigger sample size, it's a virtual lock that his numbers could be credible, and even above average.

I agree with Aronchis that Bray isn't really electric. His success is mainly because he does have 2 good pitches. Nothing that completely wows you, but good enough to get swings and misses. However, his stuff needs to be complimented with reasonable control to be effective. And I think that's his key in the long run. I don't think he has good enough raw stuff to basically get by on that alone. That's the main reason I see him as a set-up man, and not a closer down the road, but he is promising.

[M2]

Bray's young and lefty and he can make hitters miss a bit. I don't know that he'll ever be a stud, but he's certainly worth keeping around for the time being. Majewski needs to go away, permanently.

[fearofpopvol1]

I think it's too early to call either a complete bust. Neither have had an entire season where they've been healthy pitching for the Reds.

[WVRedsFan]

Originally Posted by Austin Kearns

Again, it's 12 innings. You can't look at a sample of that size and make a fair comparison to a guy like Stanton who has been putrid for quite some time.

You say he's hittable, but in his 12 innings he has a K/9 of 9.00, in the minors 13.74. I wouldn't call that hittable. He has a K/BB of 3.00. I'm not suggesting Bray is all god worthy right now or anything, but he hasn't been bad so far. His BAPIP now is over .380, so his struggles are mainly due to bad luck and bad defense. Provided a bigger sample size, it's a virtual lock that his numbers could be credible, and even above average.

I agree with Aronchis that Bray isn't really electric. His success is mainly because he does have 2 good pitches. Nothing that completely wows you, but good enough to get swings and misses. However, his stuff needs to be complimented with reasonable control to be effective. And I think that's his key in the long run. I don't think he has good enough raw stuff to basically get by on that alone. That's the main reason I see him as a set-up man, and not a closer down the road, but he is promising.

AK, I think we agree somewhat. My only point is there is the lack of performance in the situation a player gets in . Yes, bray has only pitched 12.1 innings this year, but he's allowed 16 hits in that time. That's unbelievable. The statistics on his K/9 mean nothing when he actually comes into a game and allows 1.3 hits per inning pitched and something like a run. All the fancy statistics in the world will not mask that you do not bring this guy in with runners on. they're going to score (of course, he let his partner from Washington do that for him tonight). I look more at what he's trying to do while he's pitching. While he's [pitched, he allows grat numbers to get on base and since he's allowed 10 earned runs in those innings (and against the Giants, no less), it jut says to me that he is no savior no matter what Wayne Krivsky says about him. He's young and will get better (I hope), but for now, I think it's safe to say that he is a below averae pitcher who may never get any better. Of course, that's opinion, but I'm not one to look at horse manure and call it barbeque. No matter what some statistics says. Unlucky or lucky doesn't matter. The turth is he allowed 10 runs in 12 innings and that's winand losses which is all that matters. Yes, he has a lot of work to do, but I don't see him improving.

Of course, that's purely opinion and not based on statistics other than his record as a Red.

[Kc61]

Bray's year has been a washout. Never really had spring training, constant injury, basically rehabbing most of the year. I think he deserves a winter off to get healthy and a full spring training before we form any conclusions. Right now he's ineffective, but it's hard to judge him after all the injuries this year.

I'd be surprised if Krivsky was really counting heavily on either of these guys for next year. Frankly, I think the Reds need to re-sign Guardado. Guardado seems to be returning to good form, based on his last few outings. Besides Eddy, Burton, and Weathers, all the Reds relievers are question marks IMO.

The Reds have a lot of relievers and will acquire more. A critical part of having a winner next year is for the team to evaluate them properly and keep those who will be effective. It shouldn't matter how they were acquired, what their contract is, how they did for other teams in the past.

The Reds should also consider promoting Pelland, Roenicke, Viola or Guevera if they show well this winter and spring. Again, there is much quantity in the pen, the trick is identifying the effective guys, and being bold enough to say goodbye to those who aren't working out.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by WVRedsFan

es, bray has only pitched 12.1 innings this year, but he's allowed 16 hits in that time. That's unbelievable.

Actually, that's fully believable. In fact, that's the entire point of the sample size issue. Within a given stretch of 12.1 IP, nearly anything is believable. And that thing which happens tells us very little about all the other innings that pitcher has or will pitched.

In one 12 inning stretch, JJ Putz had an ERA over 6.00 and a WHIP over 1.40. Not a big deal perhaps until you consider his ridiculous 1.34 ERA and 0.672 WHIP for the season.

I agree, I don't think Bray is great shakes. However, you can't accept the premise that it's only 12 IP and then use the numbers he put in that the time against him. I guess maybe it's enough to make us second guess the scouting evaluation, but it really tells us nothing about how he's going to pitch over the long haul. It's frustrating, but we just can't extrapolate from that sample.

Just a standard case of confirmation bias. I'm not saying he's going to be good, just that this year's 12 IP doesn't tell us much of anything at all.

[WVRedsFan]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Bray's year has been a washout. Never really had spring training, constant injury, basically rehabbing most of the year. I think he deserves a winter off to get healthy and a full spring training before we form any conclusions. Right now he's ineffective, but it's hard to judge him after all the injuries this year.

I'll give you that. But what I noticed tonight (and this was really the first time I was in the frame of mind to do this), was his location was horrible. Pitches that might have been out pitches in AAA were hit hard. He needs big-time instruction and I'm not sure he can get it with our current "teaching" staff.

I'd be surprised if Krivsky was really counting heavily on either of these guys for next year. Frankly, I think the Reds need to re-sign Guardado. Guardado seems to be returning to good form, based on his last few outings. Besides Eddy, Burton, and Weathers, all the Reds relievers are question marks IMO.

I totally agree ecept the part about Krivisky not counting on those guys. If he is not, he's lying and I don't appreciate that. I'll agree that Eddie needs to come back, but not at the salary he expects. His velocity is improving and for what's it worth, he's a rah-rah guy sorely needed on this team.

The Reds have a lot of relievers and will acquire more. A critical part of having a winner next year is for the team to evaluate them properly and keep those who will be effective. It shouldn't matter how they were acquired, what their contract is, how they did for other teams in the past.

That's the problem, IMHO. The evaluation seems to be less than adequate. Krivsky seems to look at past performance and no matter what happens afterward, he sticks with it. What sane manager would put Stanton in a game with is performance in the present? If not for ego, Majewski might have been DFA'd and the same goes for Cromier and Santos. Given the fact that he acquired them, what other explanation is there? Macklanin seems like a thinking man's manager, and I find the use of Stanton and the others a little suspect. Call me paranoid.

The Reds should also consider promoting Pelland, Roenicke, Viola or Guevera if they show well this winter and spring. Again, there is much quantity in the pen, the trick is identifying the effective guys, and being bold enough to say goodbye to those who aren't working out.

But will they? I look at Krivsky as a trash can guy. He picks guys off the trash heep and hopes they do well. In my business we call it throwing at the wall to see if it sticks. How else can you explain the acquisition of Coats and Ellison when Jay Bruce waits in the minors? He can identify a Beandon Phillips, Josh Hamilton, or a Branson Arroyo, but can't see how hopeless a Mike Stanton or a Majewski is. It's a real concern to me.

[Topcat]

Originally Posted by pedro

Bill Bray has pitched all of 12 innings this year. I hardly think you can evaluate his future based on that.

According to some you can though Pedro

[GAC]

Originally Posted by pedro

Bill Bray has pitched all of 12 innings this year. I hardly think you can evaluate his future based on that.

Yep.

Originally Posted by WVRedsFan

Heck, I don't know anything about pitching other than the results.

Not denying Bray's struggles at times in this second half, but the game was won on broken bat single. Don't know if I want to fault Bray for that. Dumb luck?

He's 24 yrs old and only been back with the team about 5 weeks.

Lets don't label him a complete wash as of yet.

Originally Posted by WVRedsFan

I don't want Kearns or Lopez back, but Kearns playing right might be better than Ellison or Coats

Respectfully, you're not making sense here WV. If we had retained Kearns, who is making 3.5 Mil/yr, where was Griffey, who is our RFer, gonna play? You're gonna pay Kearns that kind of money to sit the bench maybe, and hope to get playing time?

And you actually believe that WK entertains visions or Ellison or Coats being regular starters in our OF? Ellison has spent his career as a utility player/backup in SF (for Bonds) and then in Seattle. He was serving the same role in those places, then released, that he is serving in Cincy. And the reason why WK picked him up off the waiver wire at all was because two of our OFers were fighting injury (Freel and Hamilton).

And I bet Ellison is released after the season. And, to the best of my understanding, we aren't paying Coat's salary this year. The Cubs are.

That is the only reason they are here - they came very cheap and we needed the backup. Nothing more.

[mth123]

I'm actually more concerned about Weathers crashing down than the guys in the middle. A bullpen is only as good as its 8th and 9th inning guys IMO and I'm still not convinced that Weathers will do it again. This year the trouble was mostly from Coffey's collapse and the team being left with too many 6th and 7th inning guys (a couple of whom were/are well past the expiration date) trying to fill the 8th inning (or more appropriately key out) role. I think Coffey was being counted on for that role

The problem is more one of subtraction IMO. Majewski, Saarloos and Stanton and the wretched innings they give must go. Coffey needs to shape up (in many senses of the word) or he needs to go too. (I am actually hopeful that Coffey can still be a 7th and 8th inning plus).

I'd like to see Weathers sent off in a package for young starting help, a top closer who can be the anchor for the next 3 or 4 years signed and one other underutilized bat misser (Wuertz for example) acquired in a deal somehow.

A solid closer with Burton, New Bat Misser, Bray, Coutlangus and one of the starter pack who is kept around for long relief should be ok. The last spot should be a competition between McBeth, Salmon, Coffey if he shapes up, Pelland, Roenicke, Guevara etc.

I could also see Sean Watson converted back to relief and he could come fast if so. I haven't lost hope at all as far as he is concerned.

[Ltlabner]

Originally Posted by pedro

Bill Bray has pitched all of 12 innings this year. I hardly think you can evaluate his future based on that.

Sure you can Pedro. It's fun!

But in all serriousness, with Bray's K rate, I'm really not going to fret after 12 whole innings. I don't think he'll be God-like, but I think he can be effective.

Majic...well.....I guess ditching the John Wilkes Booth look didn't do the trick.