Give the gold to Silva

[lollipopcurve]

Fine, I'm a glutton for punishment. But I maintain that the Reds should give a nice juicy contract to Carlos Silva this offseason.

My man Carlos, among the top 50 innings-eaters in the majors:

2nd in walks (behind Maddux, tied with Sabathia and Shields)

13th in ground out/fly out ratio

22nd in HR allowed

25th in on-base percentage against (.319)

30th in innings pitched

36th in ERA

Not just the AL, it's both leagues.

I know it's risky. I know there are going to be some undervalued arms out there (for everyone to sign). But come on, Silva is a rock. Do the Reds have a single groundball pitcher in the rotation? Umm, no. So let's get one. Eh?

[PuffyPig]

He may be the best FA pitcher available (probably neck and neck with Lohse) but that doesn't mean he's any good.

He's had a nice year, but it's been built on a HR-rate that's half what it was last year (with a corresponding HR/FB rate which is half what it was last year). I would suggest that he gave up more HR's last year than he should have, and less this year. Figure in the middle for a normal year.

He's likely a 4.75-5.00 ERA in GABP.

He strikes out no one, and isn't likely to get any better.

Someone will pay him more than us, and we should be glad they do.

I'd rather have Lohse, he has more upside, but that doesn't mean I want him.

[RedsManRick]

It's all a function of how much gold. 3 & 20? Ok, I guess. 5 and 50? No thanks! Somebody is going to give him the latter. I hope it isn't us.

[flyer85]

His had a 6 ERA last year and 4.3 this year. WHich is the real Silva? Let someone else pay to find out, the extremely low K rate makes him dependent on a good defense and the vagaries of BABIP. Let someone else take the risk. I am more than content for the Reds to spend the money elsewhere and go with Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Belisle and ????.

[M2]

101 ERA+, not that there's anything necessarily wrong with that, but a guy who does that shouldn't be a big money pitcher

1.33 WHIP

3.95 K/9

Currently enjoying a fluke season where his HR/9 has been halved.

Put them in similar circumstances and I'd expect Matt Belisle to pitch better in 2008. Let someone else waste their money on Silva.

[RedsFan75]

Silva might sound good, but for Great American, I want one of those rare, hard to find Extreme Ground Ball, High Strikeout pitchers!... Fact is, I'll take 3 or 4 of em.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I'd rather take Lohse.

[RedsManRick]

There's a very interesting article on BP today about the success of the Rockies. One of the points they made is that instead of looking for guys who could abuse the affects of Coors, they've been looking for guys whose natural skills sets are enhanced by Coors -- contact hitters with gap power, good defenders, power & pitchability pitchers rather than movement and pinpoint control. It's sort of a "take the wave" mentality in which you don't swim straight against or with it.

It was just one point among many. However, there's an interesting parallel. Pitchers who succeed in GABP aren't the ones who don't give up any homers (they don't exist). They're the ones that succeed even with they give up a homer or two. The hitters who benefit aren't the Adam Dunn's and Wily Mo Pena's who hit the ball 475 feet, but rather Brandon Phillips and Alex Gonzalez. GABP isn't so much the issue with Silva. It's having one of the worst defenses in baseball and not seeing any reason to expect significant improvement.

[Patrick Bateman]

I think PP, M2, and RMR hit the nail on the head.

The only thing seperating Silva from being a below average pitcher is pure luck. When that averages out you are looking at an unappealing pitcher. Toss him in front of a team that is ill suited for Silva's game and you have a disaster.

Teams with great defenses may consider Silva a good gamble because they can stretch his skills to the max, the Reds can't do that. Instead find pitchers who control their own destiny (high walk, high K, low in play) that won't be hurt as much as because of the team around them. M2 mentioned Cabrera as a possibility yesterday (albeit as a reliever) but that's the type that won't be killed by defense. He's not a great pitcher, but his problems won't be compounded because of the defense.

[RedsManRick]

It's sort of counter-intuitive, but it would seem to me that hitter friendly parks demand better defenses, and pitcher's parks allow for worse defense. A "free" baserunner is more likely to turn in a run GABP than nearly anywhere else in baseball whereas a "free' baserunner in Pecto is still likely to be stranded.

Given that outs are at more of a premium in hitter's parks (because they are naturally less frequent), having a defense that creates more of them is significant advantage.

[lollipopcurve]

The only thing seperating Silva from being a below average pitcher is pure luck. When that averages out you are looking at an unappealing pitcher. Toss him in front of a team that is ill suited for Silva's game and you have a disaster.

Teams with great defenses may consider Silva a good gamble because they can stretch his skills to the max, the Reds can't do that. Instead find pitchers who control their own destiny (high walk, high K, low in play) that won't be hurt as much as because of the team around them. M2 mentioned Cabrera as a possibility yesterday (albeit as a reliever) but that's the type that won't be killed by defense. He's not a great pitcher, but his problems won't be compounded because of the defense.

Isn't his low BB rate a skill? He's suppressing HRs pretty well now, too, and that's in the AL. Also, the Reds defense is much improved with EdE playing well, Phillips at 2nd, and, by 09 at the latest, Griffey gone.

I think folks are underestimating the importance of having 6-7 guys who can start at the major league level. Silva gives you that solid 3rd guy, while Belisle, Bailey and Cueto, the only in-house options, remain question marks. So, you're at 5 -- without even acknowledging the possibility of injury.

[Highlifeman21]

The only price I'd pay for Carlos Silva is in the ballpark of less than 3 Million a year. I'd also only lock him up for a maximum of 3 years.

So yeah, no more than 9 Million over 3 years.

He'll get much more than that this offseason, so let someone else overpay for Mr. Silva's services.

I'd much rather us try to get Kyle Lohse back via FA for a similar 9 over 3 contract, but I have a feeling someone will overpay for him as well.

[RedsManRick]

League average HR/FB is around 10.5% Silva career average is 11.1%. The trick is that he just doesn't allow as many FB as most. That HR/FB rate is what we'll see increase in GABP. FWIW, in his disaster season last year (5.94 ERA) his HR/FB spike to 16.1% and his GB/FB ratio dipped to a career low 1.28. He allowed more FB than usual, and more HR on those FB which he allowed. His 2006 likely wasn't due just to bad luck. He got legitimately hit harder - I have no idea why.

[lollipopcurve]

So yeah, no more than 9 Million over 3 years.

He'll get much more than that this offseason, so let someone else overpay for Mr. Silva's services.

I'd much rather us try to get Kyle Lohse back via FA for a similar 9 over 3 contract, but I have a feeling someone will overpay for him as well.

You're dreaming if you think you're going to get league-average pitching for those prices these days -- unless you're counting on that thing you decry so much in evaluating Silva -- luck. The only way the Reds run into cheap league-average pitching from outside the system is to get a highly unpredictable performance from somebody on the scrap heap.

I'll take the expensive league-average bird in the hand over the cheap ones out there in the bushes.

[M2]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

There's a very interesting article on BP today about the success of the Rockies. One of the points they made is that instead of looking for guys who could abuse the affects of Coors, they've been looking for guys whose natural skills sets are enhanced by Coors -- contact hitters with gap power, good defenders, power & pitchability pitchers rather than movement and pinpoint control. It's sort of a "take the wave" mentality in which you don't swim straight against or with it.

It was just one point among many. However, there's an interesting parallel. Pitchers who succeed in GABP aren't the ones who don't give up any homers (they don't exist). They're the ones that succeed even with they give up a homer or two. The hitters who benefit aren't the Adam Dunn's and Wily Mo Pena's who hit the ball 475 feet, but rather Brandon Phillips and Alex Gonzalez. GABP isn't so much the issue with Silva. It's having one of the worst defenses in baseball and not seeing any reason to expect significant improvement.

Great points. On the pitching front, I wouldn't shy away from a low cost guy who might be asking for extra leather support, but I don't recommend shelling out big bucks for one in advance of building the support system he'll need. If the Reds are intrigued by some of what Silva brings to the table (he's got a solid GB rate) I'd urge them to find someone who's like Silva from four years ago rather than pony up for the Silva 2007 model. He's got too much of a chance of falling flat on his face for my tastes.