Trade Idea

[Krusty]

Read Hal McCoy's column today and it got me thinking about this trade idea:

Josh Hamilton and Edwin Encarncion to the SF Giants for RHP Matt Cain.

Giants are rebuilding. Hamiton is a replacement for Bonds in LF and Encarncion would play 3rd base. Reds would use Keppinger at third base and the Reds would have an outfield of Dunn, Freel/Hopper, Griffey with Bruce waiting in the wings.

The addition of Cain would give the Reds a solid rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Cain, Bailey and ?.

Opinions?

[PuffyPig]

We give up a lot, and get alot.

If the Giants would move Cain, this is the type of trade that could be made.

I think the Giants will try hard to move Lowry, who simply doesn't have the upside of a Cain.

You'd have to give up a lot for Cain, but you've done that.

[RedsManRick]

Interesting idea Krusty. Cain's Achilles heel has been his control and he's made up for it by keeping the ball in the yard. He does miss bats, but he's a flyball pitcher with control problems; that scares me just a touch.

And let's be careful not to underestimate Josh Hamilton's offensive value. Only 11 OF with as many PA as Hamilton had a .900+ OPS. I know he can be replaced by Bruce this year, but it leaves a fairly big hole in 2009 and beyond, especially if Dunn leaves via FA.

2007, All OF, 275+ PA, Sorted by OPS
Rk	Player			TEAM	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Barry Bonds		SFO	.276	.480	.565	1.045
2	Magglio Ordonez		DET	.363	.434	.595	1.029
3	Matt Holliday		COL	.340	.405	.607	1.012
4	Vladimir Guerrero	LAA	.324	.403	.547	 .950
5	Adam Dunn		CIN	.264	.386	.554	 .940
6	Brad Hawpe		COL	.291	.387	.539	 .926
7	Josh Hamilton		CIN	.292	.368	.554	 .922
8	Matt Stairs		TOR	.289	.368	.549	 .917
9	Moises Alou		NYM	.341	.392	.524	 .916
10	Curtis Granderson	DET	.302	.361	.552	 .913
11	Pat Burrell		PHI	.256	.400	.502	 .902

One thing to consider with Hamilton is that because of his age, we're likely to get his peak at dirt cheap prices. If we're going to go after a SP, Cain is a fine target. But let's be careful about not creating another problem in the process. I know you have to give talent to get talent, but trading both of those guys at once makes it a hard trade to "win".

[TOBTTReds]

I think we have to get another player in return. That is A LOT to be giving up for one pitcher, that has had major problems with is command.

I think when people think about Josh Hamilton, they feel he has reached his peak. He has played one year of MLB since taking 3 years off. He has a chance to be a major stud, as does Edwin. We have no replacement for Edwin either (not Kepp please). We would have to replace him. My first thought was Pedro Feliz, but he will ask for a lot. He has gold glove D and is a righty.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by AvesIce51

I think when people think about Josh Hamilton, they feel he has reached his peak.

There's probably a couple of fears with Hamilton...did we just see Kearn's first year will next year be one of disappointed expectations? If Hamilton is for real and we've seen his true performance level, are we looking at JD Drew from an injury standpoint?

[Krusty]

You got to remember the free agent market for starting pitchers stink. That makes the prices for quality pitchers like Cain go through the roof.

You have to give the Giants a reason to trade a pitcher of the caliber of Cain. They are rebuilding. Hamilton and Encarncion are two players that can help in that rebuilding process.

You don't trade Encarncion unless you have a Keppinger to replace him. While Keppinger might not have the home run power and RBI potential as Encarncion, he is an excellent number two hitter that can put the ball in play.....something we haven't seen since Barry Larkin was at the top of the lineup.

As for Hamilton, I question whether he will be an everyday ballplayer given his track record for injuries. If I'm the Reds, I extend Big Donkey's contract for four years since no team will trade for him without a contract extension. And with a team committing that type of money do you think they will give up significant quantity of young talent in return? I have no problem with a Freel/Hopper combo in CF and batting in the leadoff position. Griffey would be back for one more year and even when he needs a few days off, you got Jay Bruce who you can break in slowly at the major league level.

Trading Cain would bolster the rotation. Problem with the Giants is they didn't score runs for him. With the Reds he could have a breakout season. Acquire him and the Reds rotation looks pretty good. And with Bray, Burton and Weathers closing games next season, I could see the Reds maybe turning this around and having a .500 season or above.

[pahster]

Originally Posted by AvesIce51

My first thought was Pedro Feliz, but he will ask for a lot. He has gold glove D and is a righty.

Career (AVG/OBP/SLG) - .252/.288/.433
Career high OBP = .305 in 2004.

No thank you.

[RedsManRick]

Convince me that Keppinger isn't just Stynes 2.0 and I'd feel a little better about it. Convince me that we won't be left with a 2009 OF of Hopper/Dickerson/Bruce. The idea is right insofar as we'd be trading away 2 guys who we can replace in 2008. But until Frazier is ready, we've got nothing in house in the 3B pipeline and we could potentially be losing both Dunn and Junior in 2009.

Another thing, Cain is a flyball pitcher who allowed just 14 HR last year. How's that work? Well, he allowed just 5 HR in nearly 100 IP on the road. He allowed 9 at home, in one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball. What will his ERA look like if he allows 22-24 HR instead of 14, with those walk rates.

I wouldn't be dead set against it, because as you point out, good pitching is so expensive and hard to come by. I just wonder if maybe we can't do it with one of those guys and some prospects - say EE and Stubbs.

[Krusty]

Are you willing to give up Bruce or Votto to get Cain? I'm not and nor should the Reds. As I said, Hamilton's injury history concerns me whether he can be an everyday player. Trading Encarncion hurts but it is easier to find a stopgap third baseman (if Keppinger flops in 2008) than it is to find a pitcher of Cain's caliber.

[Krusty]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Convince me that Keppinger isn't just Stynes 2.0 and I'd feel a little better about it. Convince me that we won't be left with a 2009 OF of Hopper/Dickerson/Bruce. The idea is right insofar as we'd be trading away 2 guys who we can replace in 2008. But until Frazier is ready, we've got nothing in house in the 3B pipeline and we could potentially be losing both Dunn and Junior in 2009.

Another thing, Cain is a flyball pitcher who allowed just 14 HR last year. How's that work? Well, he allowed just 5 HR in nearly 100 IP on the road. He allowed 9 at home, in one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball. What will his ERA look like if he allows 22-24 HR instead of 14, with those walk rates.

I wouldn't be dead set against it, because as you point out, good pitching is so expensive and hard to come by. I just wonder if maybe we can't do it with one of those guys and some prospects - say EE and Stubbs.

You think Castanelli and Dunn had lunch for the sake of having lunch? I think plans are in the works to keep Big Donkey here for a long time. Get Dunn signed and ready to pencil Bruce in RF for the next 10 years and go with a combo of Freel/Hopper for now (Freel's trade value is nil right now).

[OnBaseMachine]

Interesting idea, but I'm against it. I love Matt Cain but the Reds offense would take a big hit by trading Edwin and Hamilton. Those two guys are young, cheap and well above average major league players. I would prefer to hang on to them and deal for a younger pitcher who hasn't put it together yet who could be had for a decent price (i.e., Jonathan Sanchez, Ervin Santana, Cliff Lee).

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Interesting idea, but I'm against it. I love Matt Cain but the Reds offense would take a big hit by trading Edwin and Hamilton. Those two guys are young, cheap and well above average major league players. I would prefer to hang on to them and deal for a younger pitcher who hasn't put it together yet who could be had for a decent price (i.e., Jonathan Sanchez, Ervin Santana, Cliff Lee).

The problem though is that Ervin Santana and Cliff Lee are bad pitchers.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Krusty

Are you willing to give up Bruce or Votto to get Cain? I'm not and nor should the Reds. As I said, Hamilton's injury history concerns me whether he can be an everyday player. Trading Encarncion hurts but it is easier to find a stopgap third baseman (if Keppinger flops in 2008) than it is to find a pitcher of Cain's caliber.

You wouldn't trade Votto straight up for Cain?

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by Kc61

You wouldn't trade Votto straight up for Cain?

I agree, you'd have to be out of your mind not to trade Votto for Cain straight up.

But it doesn't matter, Sabean would fart into the phone after hearing that proposal.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

The problem though is that Ervin Santana and Cliff Lee are bad pitchers.

With the stuff to improve. If you read my post you would see where I wrote that the Reds should target young, cheap pitchers who have yet to put it together. Ervin Santana and Cliff Lee fit that description.