Reds Prospect Rankings - A new twist

[mth123]

Frequently we've had threads about the top 10, top 40, top 20 pre-season, mid-season, off-season etc. Much of the discussion ends up being a debate of relievers versus other players, low minors players with a limited track record versus higher level players and stats versus tools. To try and limit the side issues and to help focus the discussion on the players themselves, I've created my list going into the winter by separating the players into four categories: Starting Pitchers, Relievers, Position Players and Below A Ball level players. I've rated the top dozen of each. No real reason for choosing a dozen but here they are:

Rank	Starters	Relief		Pos Players	Below A
1	Bailey		Roenicke	Bruce		Frazier
2	Cueto		McBeth		Votto		Lotzcar
3	Maloney		Viola		Rosales		Waring
4	Fisher		Pelland		Dorn		Soto
5	Jukich		Salmon		Griffin		Chiu
6	Smit		Guevara		Francisco	Cozart
7	Wood		Ruzic		Valaika		E. Del Rosario
8	Lecure		Rojas		Stubbs		Mesoraco
9	Thompson	Geronimo	Dickerson	K. Jones
10	Ondrusek	Asadoorian	Perez		McKennon
11	Avery		Lutz		Tatum		Ef. Rodriguez
12	Gonzalez	Medina		Coats		Menchaca

[dougdirt]

Couple of questions I have that I would be interested in hearing a reasoning for:

Mesoraco as the 8th best prospect below A ball?

Travis Wood behind Jukich and Smit? or even for that matter Maloney or Fisher (although at least I could listen to an argument for those two).

Stubbs at 8 in the position players?

No Sean Watson in the top 12 starting pitchers but you have James Avery?

[mth123]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Couple of questions I have that I would be interested in hearing a reasoning for:

Mesoraco as the 8th best prospect below A ball?

Travis Wood behind Jukich and Smit? or even for that matter Maloney or Fisher (although at least I could listen to an argument for those two).

Stubbs at 8 in the position players?

No Sean Watson in the top 12 starting pitchers but you have James Avery?

Good questions:

Didn't have much to go on with Mesoraco. In his limited time he strikes me as a defensive back-up. Maybe I'm suffering from flashbacks to Dane Sardinha. I like Frazier, Lotzcar, Soto and Waring clearly more at this point from the draft. Cozart advanced and even though he seems to be touted as a utility guy he gets the nod for the higher level. Chiu intrigues me and based on the limited pitching he has done I went with him. Probably wishful thinking on Del Rosario but he seemed pretty effective and I took lack of information as a bigger positive than poor performance.

Watson was purely an oversight. I actually intended to include him on the relief list as the number 2 guy. I don't think the Reds intend for him to be a starter long term, but are trying to get him innings to speed his development. Since he was a starter in 2007, I simply blew it. But I'd put him at number 2 on the relief list and push everyone else down a notch.

Stubbs is some one I am very skeptical about. I know Stubbs is a good defender and has speed, but speedy outfielders really have no where to go if the bat doesn't develop. His lack of IF skills precludes him from being a valuable super sub type and the bar for offense is much higher in the OF than in the IF. Its possible that Stubbs could be more skilled than a lot of guys but unable to contribute because he may not have the bat for the OF and doesn't play the positions where his bat could pass. Dorn's bat seemed to take a step forward in 2007 and he has surpassed Stubbs IMO. I'm skeptical of Griffin, Valaika and Rosales ever being regulars but in general guys who can or have played MI have a decent chance at being very useful in a multi-position supersub role along the lines of Mark DeRosa if the bat is decent. These three seem to have a chance at that and don't have to develop into starters to help the big league team - making their downside less a problem. Stubbs, on the other hand, has to hit or he becomes Dewayne Wise. I like Francisco better on the basis of his power, but I'm skeptical there as well. I think another big power year could make him valuable trade bait, but I'd really be surprised if he turns into a starter in the big leagues unless he really changes his approach.

As for the starting pitchers, Wood is two years removed from being a top guy IMO. He showed some problems in 2006 and was sideleined a lot in 2007. He needs to make a big comeback. I agree with you on Maloney. I don't have high hopes of him being a plus starter in the major leagues, but he was acquired for a guy (as much as I don't like Kyle Lohse) who clearly is worthy of a back of the rotation spot and did nothing but pitch well after that. On that basis, I have to conclude that his trade value is pretty decent right now and ranked him at number 3 as a result. I hope that he is flipped in a deal (probably as a part of a package) for some one who really can be a middle of the rotation guy. Fisher has been my sleeper for about a year now and was looking good for about 2 and a half months. He seemed to wear out and IIRC openly complained of a tired arm. After skipping a turn, he pitched pretty well again for a while. In his case, I think he either gets past it and becomes an option for the 4th or 5th spot down the road or he simply needs a lighter load and seems to be a possibility as a good middle reliever. Jukich pitched well after a rough start and seemed to take a step forward. He is my choice as sleeper prospect who increases his value most in 2008. Smit and Wood are pretty similar in that they are both guys whose stock has dropped. I went with Smit simply because he was actually pitching. I view Wood in a similar fashion to Maloney. I am skeptical that he'll ever be a good major league starter, but he has some reputation and could be trade bait. Missing so much time last year killed that and dropped him on my list. I am hopeful that he can rebound and move back up.

[Aronchis]

McBeth shouldn't even be on that list.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

McBeth shouldn't even be on that list.

Disagree completely. He has good stuff, he just needs to figure it out a little bit more.

[Aronchis]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Disagree completely. He has good stuff, he just needs to figure it out a little bit more.

Not that way. I don't consider him a prospect anymore. Neither really, Bailey either.

[Kc61]

Good list. A little depressing, though. The deepest list seems to be below A ball. And those types sometimes aren't so highly rated when they move up a few levels.

I thought McBeth, Rosales, Fisher, Smit and Griffin were a bit high. I thought Francisco, Stubbs and Wood were too low.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

Not that way. I don't consider him a prospect anymore. Neither really, Bailey either.

Gotcha.

Technically though, until they no longer qualify for ROY, they are prospects.

[icehole3]

Luis Montano was Billings MVP along with Waring and he's not on the list, dude you couldve gone to minor league.com and saw that.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by icehole3

Luis Montano was Billings MVP along with Waring and he's not on the list, dude you couldve gone to minor league.com and saw that.

6-0, 180 age 22, meh. Didn't blow me away, but neither did any of the bottom 4 or 5 on that list. I do think I'd drop Del Rosario down a bit if I were to do it again. That list should probably only have been about 6 deep or 7 with Mesoraco in 7th.

[New Fever]

Justin Reed, Scott Carroll, and Phil Valiquette should all be on the below A ball list

[mth123]

Originally Posted by New Fever

Justin Reed, Scott Carroll, and Phil Valiquette should all be on the below A ball list

Missed Valiquette. I agree on him but his leave of absence concerns me. Carroll seems kind of old for Billings but I like his size and he seemed to do well. Reed seems like a little, speedy lead-off type and I'm not big on those types of players but he did OK and he is young.

Anyone below Mesoraco didn't stand out and are pretty hard to project for me. I went 12 deep mostly for the other three lists and admit I'm not knowledgeable enough to rank the below A guys that far.

I didn't post this to be definitive but more to spur some discussion of Reds prospects. This part of the board is pretty dead these days and I wanted to try to get some discussion of the prospects going.

[M2]

mth, I like the idea of breaking it up into separate groups.

[Betterread]

I like your attempt to stratify the way prospects are perceived but I'm not sure of the reason for having a separate category for the Rookie-level league players. Here are the names I think are missing from your lists:
For the Starters: Jordan Smith should be in the top 12 - but I'm not sure the Reds have 10 legitimate starting pitching prospects
For relievers: Sean Watson and Terrell Young all throw harder than everyone on your list except for Mcbeth, Pelland and Roenicke. Jamie Arneson is another name to add. 5 names on your list are really reaches to describe as prospects. I think you were reaching because the Reds don't have 10 legitimate relief pitching prospects.
For position players: Justin Turner, Jose Castro and Sean Henry (the two Mets prospects we received for Conine) all make the top 12
For below A: Justin Reed, Charles Snowden are missing

[GoReds33]

The below A list reminds me of a few years ago when we had all the talent we have now, except they were all youngsters. I hope all of these guys pan out very well. I hope that Brandon Waring lives up to his potential as well. He had a monster year.