A.J. Burnett

[AmarilloRed]

There recently was an article on mlbtraderumors.com about the possibility that the Blue Jays will be seeking to trade A.J. Burnett this offseason. They mentioned a possible trade to the Cardinals for Chris Duncan, but the problem with that is that the Blue Jays need a shortstop. I was wondering if the Reds could seek to trade Alex Gonzalez oor Jeff Keppinger to the Blue Jays with some additional prospects to get A.J. Burnett. There is a problem with his contract however. A.J. Burnett has a 3 year contract at $12 million a year from 2008 to 2010, but he can opt out of it after 2008. He has had injury problems, but A.J. Burnett does have the potential to be a #1 starter, so he could definitely serve as a #2 for us if he is healthy.

[Bip Roberts]

I am all for trading for any pitching talent as long as it doesnt include Bruce.

[mound_patrol]

I don't understand why any team gives the player the chance to opt out. Because if they pitch well they will always opt out for money. The only way the team gets to keep them is if they know they can't make more because they have played poorly. I think Burnett is worth the 12 million but I wouldn't trade much more than Gonzalez for him because its almost gauranteed he'd leave after his one year here.

[as_v_1]

Originally Posted by mound_patrol

I don't understand why any team gives the player the chance to opt out. Because if they pitch well they will always opt out for money. The only way the team gets to keep them is if they know they can't make more because they have played poorly. I think Burnett is worth the 12 million but I wouldn't trade much more than Gonzalez for him because its almost guaranteed he'd leave after his one year here.

Totally agree we can't go giving up a ton for a player that more than likely would opt out. The Jays aren't going to trade him for just Gonzalez and some trash thou. Unless we could sign him to a new deal or something I'd pass.

[Will M]

I was all for trying to pry him away from the Jays until I heard about that ugly contract.

[GoReds33]

Originally Posted by Will M

I was all for trying to pry him away from the Jays until I heard about that ugly contract.

Sometimes those are the risks you have to take. I am all for going after him, but it would be better if they would give us some cash. I know that would require more talent, but the Reds have more talent than money. There is no way that we could get him for Gonzalez and some spare parts though. I think it would take Gonzo, and a mid level prospect.

[UK Reds Fan]

Get that mid-leve prospect ready to go (Stubbs?) and Gonzo and get it done. There is your last piece for a legit playoff run for only an additional 7 mil a year after lessening Gonzo's contract.

[WMR]

I would love to add a pitcher as talented as A.J. Burnett.

[AdamDunn]

Originally Posted by UK Reds Fan

Get that mid-leve prospect ready to go (Stubbs?) and Gonzo and get it done. There is your last piece for a legit playoff run for only an additional 7 mil a year after lessening Gonzo's contract.

I concur.

[AmarilloRed]

The article suggests that the number of innings will determine whether or not he opts out:

170+ IP-Opts out for a 4 year deal
150-170- Gray are and can go either way
Less than 150- Will play for the 24 million in 2009-2010.

Here is the complete article:

Should Cards Pursue A.J. Burnett?

Viva El Birdos has a well thought-out discussion of the prospect of the Cardinals trading Chris Duncan for A.J. Burnett. I have a few thoughts to add.

In my opinion Burnett effectively has a one-year deal, only worse. That's because he has the ability to opt out after the 2008 season. So one of two things will happen:

1. Burnett is healthy enough to pitch 170+ innings, opts out, and secures a four-year deal somewhere.

2. Burnett is not healthy enough to pitch 150 innings and chooses to accept the $24MM owed to him over the 2009-10 time period (I consider 150-170 innings a gray area). If a team trades for Burnett, endures an injury-plagued '08, and is then saddled with further burden, that's worse than a straight-up one-year commitment like Jon Garland's.

My other thought is that Duncan is not a fit for the Jays. They're locked in with Lyle Overbay at first and Frank Thomas at DH. Between Adam Lind, Travis Snider, and Alex Rios, the outfield corners are covered. The Jays' biggest need is a shortstop, also a need of the Cardinals. I suppose Duncan could be part of a three-way deal.

A takeaway, as noted at VEB, is that Burnett may well be the one available pitcher with #1 potential not named Johan Santana. Another good point of theirs - he's probably worth $12 mil as a 165 inning pitcher.

[rotnoid]

I'd think innings pitched will be related directly to health. If he's healthy, he's pitching. And, if he's pitching, he's probably worth more than $12M per, so that leads to opt out. Also depends on the market next year. If a lot of the potential FA's start signing early, he's more likely to leave. I'm not sure the Reds can get this one done, though I'm all for trying.

[mroby85]

I personally don't want AJ Burnett, he's hurt every single season, and he's expensive. I don't think it would be a wise move. I agree that Burnett has upside if he's healthy, but i don't think you have as much wiggle room for mistakes such as a team like boston or new york when we have a lower payroll, so if you want to be successful you really need to be close to error free in your signings. That's why i would prefer making a safe move, or not making one at all.

[AmarilloRed]

There is no doubt it would be a risk. We would be giving up a starting position player for a expensive pitcher who has a chance of being injured. He is a potential ace pitcher, however, and the risk might be worth the reward. I suppose it might be considered better than trying to sign Curt Schilling in free agency. I still think it is something to look into, however.

[roby]

Originally Posted by mroby85

I personally don't want AJ Burnett, he's hurt every single season, and he's expensive. I don't think it would be a wise move. I agree that Burnett has upside if he's healthy, but i don't think you have as much wiggle room for mistakes such as a team like boston or new york when we have a lower payroll, so if you want to be successful you really need to be close to error free in your signings. That's why i would prefer making a safe move, or not making one at all.

I agree M. I think Eric Bedard from the Orioles is a much better fit... and he's a lefty. Something that the Reds need in their rotation.

[AmarilloRed]

Originally Posted by roby

I agree M. I think Eric Bedard from the Orioles is a much better fit... and he's a lefty. Something that the Reds need in their rotation.

CEO/president Andy MacPhail taking over the Orioles operation, you may see a couple of things develop, starting at the GM meetings in Orlando in early November. The second might be a surprise deal. The name heard most is lefty Erik Bedard. The feeling is the Orioles have enough starting pitching and need everyday players. Bedard could bring two or three major league-ready players.

This would probably mean we would need to trade 3 position players starters or prospects who are very close. It might need to be something like Votto, Edwin, and Gonzalez to pry Bedard from the Orioles. We would have to pay quite a price.