Trade Market Shopping

[mth123]

Like many, I think the signing of Dusty Baker is a sign that the Reds intend to contend immediately. I also share the thoughts of many that the Reds should plan on keeping the big 4 prospects going forward, Adam Dunn should be signed long term and that Jeff Keppinger is probaby best used as a role player and not handed a job at 3B, SS or anywhere else.

So where does that leave the Reds? Some one of value needs to be dealt to get what this team needs. Assuming that Harang, Arroyo, Dunn, Bailey, Cueto, Votto, Bruce, Encarnacion and Phillips are centerpieces that stay and that most of the vets don't have the value to get what is required, that probably puts Josh Hamilton front and center as the best combination of expendability and value as the centerpiece of a trade package. The Reds also have some pitching prospects not named Bailey or Cueto that may have some market value and a host of journeyman relief types to throw in.

IMO the Reds coud put together a package of Hamilton, Matt Maloney, Travis Wood and say a journeyman reliever like Majewski who has had some success, is still cheap and could benefit from a fresh start. I'd hate to lose Hamilton, but last year at this time the thoughts were "add a pitcher or two and the team is ready to contend in 2008 and beyond" and Hamilton wasn't a part of the picture. It seems that he could be dealt w/o hurting the plan.

The question for the board is what could a package of Hamilton, Maloney, Wood and whoever (Majewski) bring back? The Orioles need a big power bat and are probably in rebuild mode. Could that package net a Bedard? The A's are rumored to be listening on Haren and it seems that Hamilton would fit their OF needs and typical profile. If Haren isn't available, would Blanton be sufficient as a return (possibly eliminating Wood or subbing a lesser prospect)? The Giants need a young offensive centerpiece, do they have a match? I doubt Cain or Lincecum is available and don't really want the others (though Correia would be good in a lesser deal). Is Dontrelle Willis worthy at this point? Would Hamilton straight-up for Willis be a good idea? Who else is out there? Lets hear some ideas.

[icehole3]

Guys I wouldnt mind parting with, Jr, Ed E, Freel, Gonzo, Weathers, Mr Hat, Arroyo if we could swap pitchers with someone. I wouldnt trade Hamilton, he IMO is a untouchable for a few years. I also would pickup Everyday Eddie's contract.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Originally Posted by mth123

The question for the board is what could a package of Hamilton, Maloney, Wood and whoever (Majewski) bring back? The Orioles need a big power bat and are probably in rebuild mode. Could that package net a Bedard? The A's are rumored to be listening on Haren and it seems that Hamilton would fit their OF needs and typical profile. If Haren isn't availbale, would Blanton be sufficient as a return (possibly eliminating Wood or subbing a lesser prospect)? The Giants need a young offensive centerpiece, do they have a match? I doubt Cain or Lincecum is available and don't really want the others (though Correia would be good in a lesser deal). Is Dontrelle Willis worthy at this point? Would Hamilton straight-up for Willis be a good idea? Who else is out there? Lets hear some ideas.

I don't know if any of those mentioned names could be had for Hamilton and 2-3 prospects. Baltimore may be up to offering Cabrera for that package. Oakland may be up to Haran or Blanton if one of the big four is added to the deal. Giants could send Lowery over in that sort of deal. Florida will be trying to net the best prospects in a Willis deal.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Originally Posted by icehole3

Guys I wouldnt mind parting with, Jr, Ed E, Freel, Gonzo, Weathers, Mr Hat, Arroyo if we could swap pitchers with someone. I wouldnt trade Hamilton, he IMO is a untouchable for a few years. I also would pickup Everyday Eddie's contract.

Hatteberg can't be dealt unless his optioned is picked up and you would pick up Eddie Guardado 3 million dollar option? I don't have anything against bringing him back.. but not for that much.

[icehole3]

I have no problem with picking up Everyday Eddie for 3 mil, he's going to have a great year IMO.

[mth123]

Guardado has had a shoulder problem for years that has never been addressed and some have attributed his elbow injury to compensating for his shoulder. Even during his hot stretch last year he basically had 3 or 4 days rest between appearances. I don't think you can build a reliable pen with a guy who has to be nursed along so much as a key player. I wouldn't guarantee $3.5 Million to a guy who hasn't shown that he can pitch effectively on back to back days. I wouldn't mind gambling a spot on Guardado if he'd take a minor league contract with a spring invitation and a lesser salary should he make the team.

As for my proposed trade package, I think that Hamilton can be a cornerstone offensive player and coupled with a couple decent minor league arms should have quite a bit of trade value. I wouldn't trade him for Lowry or Cabrera (though Cabrera would be interesting in a lesser deal). I think teams looking to rebuild with cheap young players would be listening when the package is Hamilton, Wood and Maloney and I wonder how many better packages would be available. Hamilton is a risky guy due to his past though and it may not be enough.

[RANDY IN INDY]

I've always had interest in the Reds acquiring Cabrera.

[Heath]

I'm not sure how much trade value Hamilton has, IMO.

There are camps that claim superstar and there are claims of potential relapse.

Obviously that's on teams' mind - no matter what is spinned.

I think a guy with his caliber having his peak years under team control is something you just don't deal.

I think Hamilton stays. Even a Dunn/JR/Hamilton&Bruce combo can be pretty scary, IMO.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Heath

I'm not sure how much trade value Hamilton has, IMO.

There are camps that claim superstar and there are claims of potential relapse.

Obviously that's on teams' mind - no matter what is spinned.

I think a guy with his caliber having his peak years under team control is something you just don't deal.

I think Hamilton stays. Even a Dunn/JR/Hamilton&Bruce combo can be pretty scary, IMO.

I'm not sure either. I like Hamilton and he could have a lot of value going forward and he does carry a lot of risk. But the Reds won't win anything with Dunn/JR/Hamilton & Bruce unless they can get a guy or two that can occupy that spot on the raised portion in the middle of the diamond. They ain't gonna get it for Ryan Freel.

I think teams looking to rebuild will want to acquire guys who can be a centerpiece and also will like the idea of having a guy his caliber during the peak years. When looking to dump salary a player like Hamilton is a pretty good return I would think. I really believe the Reds can make a deal without wrecking the team at this point.

Last year the plan involved a Dunn, Votto, Bruce, Encarnacion, Arroyo, Harang, and Bailey core. The team was in a position of needing to add to that core. Phillips stepped up and Cueto looks like he's in the mix now too. Where to get another pitcher was the question then and still is now. Since then Hamilton has come along and provided a young, cheap and talented player that the team wasn't really counting on. I say if the team would have acquired a pitcher of the same caliber in last year's rule 5 we would be dancing in the streets. I don't see any reason to hang on to Hamilton if he can be used to obtain that needed pitcher. IMO the only Red's offensive player with more trade value on the market is Jay Bruce. Even Phillips is too OBP challenged to match Hamilton's value. I just don't know how much Hamilton's past holds down his value. I also think any team trading pitching is going to want pitching back. Add Maloney and Wood and its a pretty good package IMO.

[Jpup]

As long as Krivsky is the Reds GM, I would be very skeptical that Josh Hamilton will ever be traded.

I would rather trade anyone on the team, not named Harang, than trade Hamilton. I think he will be the Reds best player for the next few seasons. I just can't see why they would trade him with all of that potential and he is so cheap for a long time.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Jpup

As long as Krivsky is the Reds GM, I would be very skeptical that Josh Hamilton will ever be traded.

I would rather trade anyone on the team, not named Harang, than trade Hamilton. I think he will be the Reds best player for the next few seasons. I just can't see why they would trade him with all of that potential and he is so cheap for a long time.

How are you going to get pitching? Would you rather trade the younger, higher upside, and no rehab attached Jay Bruce? Or would you rather trade a player from a position where there really isn't a replacement?

[Jpup]

Originally Posted by mth123

How are you going to get pitching? Would you rather trade the younger, higher upside, and no rehab attached Jay Bruce? Or would you rather trade a player from a position where there really isn't a replacement?

Personally, I would rather trade a Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion, or Joey Votto. If the Reds would move Dunn to 1st (where he belongs) or trade Jr. (which may be impossible) then there would be less of a problem in the outfield. I believe that Phillips' stock is as high as it ever will be while Hamilton will only continue to get better. I would rather not trade Jay Bruce unless I was getting an unbelievable return.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Jpup

Personally, I would rather trade a Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion, or Joey Votto. If the Reds would move Dunn to 1st (where he belongs) or trade Jr. (which may be impossible) then there would be less of a problem in the outfield. I believe that Phillips' stock is as high as it ever will be while Hamilton will only continue to get better. I would rather not trade Jay Bruce unless I was getting an unbelievable return.

I'd be open to trading any of those guys too, but the drop off from Phillips or EdE to Keppinger may not be worth the type of pitcher they could likely bring back. EdE isn't a centerpiece hitter on par with Hamilton and even if you put more stock in Phillips 30/30 than his low OBP, his soon to be rising Salary will hurt his trade value. I'm not convinced in either case the pitcher acquired coupled with the loss in production to Keppinger et al would aid the team as much as keeping them. Maybe EdE for a young guy like Garza or Slowey made sense before, but the entire premise of the thread is that with Baker on board the Reds are going to go for it now and probably would target somebody more established.

In Votto's case he probably gets points deducted for playing 1B. Its a spot where big hitters are abundant and teams don't need to trade the type of pitching the Reds need to acquire a 1B. I do think Votto is a pretty studly hitter though and maybe that could work.

As for Dunn, IMO he'd do a lot more damage defensively as a 1B than he does in LF. The thought of having to depend on him to complete the out on every ground ball hit in the IF makes me shudder. Couple that with the fact that he didn't seem to want to play there and I don't think moving Dunn to 1B is a realistic option. It just isn't true that every poor OF can go play 1B and be ok there. Would you want Manny Ramirez playing 1B on your team? I certainly wouldn't. I think Dunn's best position is LF and if he can't play that (I think he can with good defenders in RF and CF) then he probably becomes Hafner or Ortiz or the late career Edgar Martinez and simply shouldn't play defense at all. The real problem with the Reds OF is that is poor as Dunn seems out there, on most days he isn't even the worst defender in the Cincy OF.

[Aronchis]

You get pitching by developing and finding it. I could argue Harang and Belisle may be leading the rotation next year, going by pure ability. The Belisle part may surprise, but his physical ability shouldn't be thrown away. It is locating your pitches consistantly. I don't remember how many times(especially early in the season when he was fresh) Matt was a pitch or 2 away from a quality start but didn't make the pitch. Things like that may improve along with his stamina which greatly effected his perfomance mid-season. Guys that hang around 93mph shouldn't be taken lightly.

I could argue the Reds have a nice stockpile of righty arms in the rotation but the rest is weak, especially the bullpen, but it is a start. The team could use a lefty in the rotation. The pen is going to need a transfusion of young talent no matter who they pickup to close, and I figure dealing for a closer will be a high priority(no matter if it is out of priority). I figure a player like EE could be dangled for that piece. I think some evidence is, the Reds want to hang on to their power hitters while filling in talent around them. That means Phillips leaving in a surprising deal isn't out of the question, but probably not overly expected.
EE is definitely not a favorite.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

You get pitching by developing and finding it.

I agree in general, but again if the premise is Dusty was brought in to win now, there isn't enough to comfortably fill the rotation. Sure they could gamble on Bailey and Cueto putting up good rookie years and Belisle stepping forward, but I think this team needs a legit number 3 or higher brought in from outside the organization if the win now supposition is true. That means some one with some pretty good value has to go to acquire that.

EdE could be the guy, but I don't see him as a centerpiece in a deal to get an established number 2 or 3. He could probably fetch a youngster with number two or three potential, but I think the team is looking for some one established right now. I think of the offensive players, only Bruce or Hamilton could net the guy they need.