The Value of our 2007 Cincinnati Reds

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Austin Kearns

I would have to say that Dunn is a better LF than Griffey is a RF. One key here is that there is a lot more quality RF'ders than there are LF'ders.

Dunn is clearly a bad fielder, you won't getany argument from me there, but Griffey is just as bad, while playing a position with more skilled peers. Griffey has no speed any more. He can'tdo much more than a jog out there, even at top speed.

Also, you can tell Griffey is new to the position. As WOY noted he had huge troubles on the bounces out of the RF corner, and for the most part I felt that he had trouble reading the ball off the bat. Again, hard to blame him since he' played nothing but CF his entire life, but he doesn't know where the ball is going.

The difference between left field and right field defense isn't nearly as dramatic as the corners versus CF. Some years, the corners could almost be interchangeable in terms of defensive talent. Righfield defense in general was down this season particularly in the American league. In '07 there probably isn't much difference between LF and RF.

Concerning directly comparing Dunn and Jr defensively, here's what a survey of advanced defensive metrics thinks about '07:

Dunn:
UZR: -15*
Dewan (+/-): -29 plays (roughly -20 runs)
Justin's translated THT data: -18

Junior:
UZR: -16
Dewan (+/-): somewhere between +6 and -10 (+4 to -8 runs)
Justin's translated THT data: -18

A few caveats: Dunn's UZR is an estimate based upon mid season projections and MGL's abbreviated list of data he's released for the worst left fielders in the AL and NL (Dunn will be better than -18 but his mid season projection was for -29 so he won't be much better than -18). Also, Dewan's score for Jr is given as a range because Dewan's full set of data hasn't been released and we know from the fielding awards that Jr wasn't in the top tier (cut off +6) or the worst tier (cut off -11). Conservatively, I think most would agree he was closer to -11 than +6.

Really the assessments by these metrics are pretty consistent. Basically neither are good and the difference between the two in year one of Jr as a RFer probably isn't worth arguing about though Jr grades out slightly better as Dewan's system was kinder to him than other systems. Dunn looks to be legitimately approaching a -2 win defender. PMR is being released now and it should help further illuminate this issue. As a CFer, Jr probably was the worst defensive outfielder in the game. However, as expected, moving him to a corner has mitigated the defensive damage his glove causes though he is still one of the worst defensive Rfers in the game.

Take home message: It is tough to find a team that plays worse corner outfield defense than the Reds.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

Rick, this may be quite difficult (and perhaps quite $$$ too), but if you can find a used copy of Win Shares itself, I'd suggest doing what you can to pick up a copy for yourself. Along with the New Historical Abstract, it is among the greatest baseball resources I've ever owned.

While any serious stathead will want to own a copy of winshares, the quickest way to get to read it these days is via interlibrary loan.

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

James gets pushed to the side by the linear weights community quite a bit nowadays,

And righfully so. Winshares is a clunker.

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

but he understands baseball on another level from them, which is the historical level. Much of his research has been applied and tested throughout the history of baseball, and he understands the variances in the game throughout its time.

Bill James is a must read IMHO. That said, linear weights isn't historically handicapped.

[RFS62]

Originally Posted by westofyou

I saw at least 135 Reds games and probably another 100 or so of other teams and IMO Griffey was the pits, he didn't step into right until ST and the ball goes to the corners a whole lot different then it does to CF, he looked lost and had a hell of a time digging them out of the corners.

Just a horrible RF he is at this juncture.

That's about how many games I saw too. And that's also my assessment.

In a way, Griffey's experience in right field reminds me of when Michael Jorden decided he'd become a pro baseball player. Just because you're a great athlete doesn't mean you can just throw your glove out there and play with the big boys.

Griffey has an entire career judging balls hit to centerfield. Balls hit to center have very little sidespin. His entire experience has been in judging the ball off the bat to pretty much straight away center field with very little slice or hook.

And he has never had to judge the corners. These are huge things in playing a corner outfield position, especially right field.

No matter how great a center fielder he has been, the repetition born instinct of judging a ball off the crack of the bat isn't there. His countless thousands of reps taken in center don't automatically transfer to right. The sidespin of the ball is a new thing for him to get used to, no matter how great he was in center. And playing the bounces off the corners and knowing how far he is from the walls of all the parks is new too.

His starts are now more tentative, by a fraction of a second, which is enormous in MLB and made even more meaningful considering the fact that age has robbed him of his speed and injuries have taken away his quick burst fast start, which was once legendary.

It's very naive to expect anything more from Griffey than we've seen. It was totally predictable.

[GAC]

So....after reading these last several pages, which has seemed to get off track - who, between the two (Griffey/Dunn) is the better OFer?

(We all already know they BOTH are below average). Jr's problem is age and injury. So what is Dunn's?

[jojo]

Originally Posted by GAC

So....after reading these last several pages, which has seemed to get off track - who, between the two (Griffey/Dunn) is the better OFer?

(We all already know they BOTH are below average). Jr's problem is age and injury. So what is Dunn's?

Dunn suffers from a willingness to tackle...

[GAC]

Originally Posted by jojo

Dunn suffers from a willingness to tackle...

So.... if we took the current Adam Dunn (the LFer) and "projected" him to the current age of Jr.... would Adam make Benny Agbyani look like a GGer? :

[mth123]

Originally Posted by RFS62

That's about how many games I saw too. And that's also my assessment.

In a way, Griffey's experience in right field reminds me of when Michael Jorden decided he'd become a pro baseball player. Just because you're a great athlete doesn't mean you can just throw your glove out there and play with the big boys.

Griffey has an entire career judging balls hit to centerfield. Balls hit to center have very little sidespin. His entire experience has been in judging the ball off the bat to pretty much straight away center field with very little slice or hook.

And he has never had to judge the corners. These are huge things in playing a corner outfield position, especially right field.

No matter how great a center fielder he has been, the repetition born instinct of judging a ball off the crack of the bat isn't there. His countless thousands of reps taken in center don't automatically transfer to right. The sidespin of the ball is a new thing for him to get used to, no matter how great he was in center. And playing the bounces off the corners and knowing how far he is from the walls of all the parks is new too.

His starts are now more tentative, by a fraction of a second, which is enormous in MLB and made even more meaningful considering the fact that age has robbed him of his speed and injuries have taken away his quick burst fast start, which was once legendary.

It's very naive to expect anything more from Griffey than we've seen. It was totally predictable.

Griffey leads the world in pulling up short and playing it on a hop. Everyone sees the goofy error or the ball going through the gap and makes judgements on those, but those plays don't happen with enough frequency to be the determining factor IMO (especially for a corner OF who really doesn't have the job of making those plays. "Out of Zone" plays are much more relevant for up the middle defenders than for corner players and its one of my problems with these metric systems). Griffey gives up far more singles on balls that should be outs than any defender that I can remember seeing. Those plays extend innings and make the pitcher work with men on base and the cumulative damage to the staff over the course of the season is way more important than the occasional double that could be caught by a better defender. Griffey's defense is more harmful than Dunn's and its not even close. I don't really care what the hypothetical runs numbers, that have been calculated by systems that all have acknowledged significant flaws, say.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by GAC

So.... if we took the current Adam Dunn (the LFer) and "projected" him to the current age of Jr.... would Adam make Benny Agbyani look like a GGer? :

There is a vocal group in the "projection" community who don't think Dunn will even be in baseball when he's 38.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by jojo

There is a vocal group in the "projection" community who don't think Dunn will even be in baseball when he's 38.

Wow... what a prediction.. considering how many players are playing at 38 and how many of them are huge men I'd have to say my mom would project that as well.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Wow... what a prediction.. considering how many players are playing at 38 and how many of them are huge men I'd have to say my mom would project that as well.

Then it's safe to assume that she would've answered GAC's satirical hypothetical the same way I did....

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by jojo

Then it's safe to assume that she would've answered GAC's satirical hypothetical the same way I did....

Yes... mom's astute, after she met Alex Karras at a party in the 60's she declared... "That man's an A**"

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Yes... mom's astute, after she met Alex Karras at a party in the 60's she declared... "That man's an A**"

I was just reading about how Alex Karras' fifth ranked and defending Big 10 champ Hawkeyes went down to the Buckeyes at Columbus in 1957. Quite an actor, too, that Alex Karras.

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by jojo

The difference between left field and right field defense isn't nearly as dramatic as the corners versus CF. Some years, the corners could almost be interchangeable in terms of defensive talent. Righfield defense in general was down this season particularly in the American league. In '07 there probably isn't much difference between LF and RF.

Concerning directly comparing Dunn and Jr defensively, here's what a survey of advanced defensive metrics thinks about '07:

Dunn:
UZR: -15*
Dewan (+/-): -29 plays (roughly -20 runs)
Justin's translated THT data: -18

Junior:
UZR: -16
Dewan (+/-): somewhere between +6 and -10 (+4 to -8 runs)
Justin's translated THT data: -18

A few caveats: Dunn's UZR is an estimate based upon mid season projections and MGL's abbreviated list of data he's released for the worst left fielders in the AL and NL (Dunn will be better than -18 but his mid season projection was for -29 so he won't be much better than -18). Also, Dewan's score for Jr is given as a range because Dewan's full set of data hasn't been released and we know from the fielding awards that Jr wasn't in the top tier (cut off +6) or the worst tier (cut off -11). Conservatively, I think most would agree he was closer to -11 than +6.

Really the assessments by these metrics are pretty consistent. Basically neither are good and the difference between the two in year one of Jr as a RFer probably isn't worth arguing about though Jr grades out slightly better as Dewan's system was kinder to him than other systems. Dunn looks to be legitimately approaching a -2 win defender. PMR is being released now and it should help further illuminate this issue. As a CFer, Jr probably was the worst defensive outfielder in the game. However, as expected, moving him to a corner has mitigated the defensive damage his glove causes though he is still one of the worst defensive Rfers in the game.

Take home message: It is tough to find a team that plays worse corner outfield defense than the Reds.

Thanks for the response on that. It surprises me that RF'ders and LF'ders are getting close to even, but it makes sense in that teams focused a lot more on offense now adays.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by traderumor

I was just reading about how Alex Karras' fifth ranked and defending Big 10 champ Hawkeyes went down to the Buckeyes at Columbus in 1957. Quite an actor, too, that Alex Karras.

He was all state every year in HS at a different position, starting at RB and ending at Tackle.

[dfs]

Originally Posted by GAC

So....after reading these last several pages, which has seemed to get off track - who, between the two (Griffey/Dunn) is the better OFer?

I think Dunn's arm pushes him over the top. He not only can strangeglove the original play, he never makes a good throw. I'm just grateful when he throws to the right base.