Ryan Howard wins $10M arb case

[RedsManRick]

Pretty crazy. Nothing like an 1100% raise. Work I've seen suggests that players typically get 40% of FA value in their first arb year, 60% in the 2nd, and 80% in the 3rd. That would value Howard at $25M in FA. Though I can't help but wonder if he's getting favorable treatment for getting screwed out of a year or two by Jim Thome's presence on the Phillies.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...tnered=rss_phi

For a 28 year old with negative defensive value, good for Howard to get his money now. He's going to be a DH by the end of the decade, in my opinion.

[Highlifeman21]

Pandora's box, slippery slope, etc...

Where does it go from here?

[bucksfan2]

Not a bad deal for a guy who regressed seriously last season and set the all time strike out record.

[Cyclone792]

$10 mil for Howard eh?

Phillies Phans won't be happy. Howard will go from beloved to regularly booed in less than two years.

[RedsManRick]

The people who should be most happy are all the players who now get to use that as a first year comp. Visa versa for the fans of the teams of those players.

[REDREAD]

All the more reason to lock up Phillips when we did. That was a good move by Wayne.

Even first year arb cases are getting crazy. It used to be that the first year was only a modest raise.

Ironically though, I guess when the Reds lock up guys like Phillips (and the Indians with their young players) it makes the comps for 1st year arb eligilbe players go through the roof and add to the problem later on.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Ironically though, I guess when the Reds lock up guys like Phillips (and the Indians with their young players) it makes the comps for 1st year arb eligilbe players go through the roof and add to the problem later on.

I'm pretty sure you can only use the results of other arb cases, not guys under LTC. That said, I imagine most guys signing long term deals make less in their first year of the contract than they would have made in arbitration.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I'm pretty sure you can only use the results of other arb cases, not guys under LTC. That said, I imagine most guys signing long term deals make less in their first year of the contract than they would have made in arbitration.

You might be right, but I'm not so sure. For example, I know that in the last year of arb, they can compare themselves to any player regardless of service time. Naturally, the bulk of those big money comps did not get their awards in arb, they got them through free agency.

You do bring up a good point about most LTC being backloaded though.

[KronoRed]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

$10 mil for Howard eh?

Phillies Phans won't be happy. Howard will go from beloved to regularly booed in less than two years.

He strikes out too much and doesn't hit in the clutch

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

$10 mil for Howard eh?

Phillies Phans won't be happy. Howard will go from beloved to regularly booed in less than two years.

Looks like Pat Burrell might be off the hook a lil bit now.

Let's see if Phillies Phans run Howard out of town like they did Abreu.

[fearofpopvol1]

It's good for him, but kind of scary for small market teams.

This is definitely hypothetical, but what happens if this is Jay Bruce in 3 years??

[KronoRed]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

It's good for him, but kind of scary for small market teams.

This is definitely hypothetical, but what happens if this is Jay Bruce in 3 years??

We better get him signed after year 2.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

This is definitely hypothetical, but what happens if this is Jay Bruce in 3 years??

He'll be booed for making too much money.

Reds fans love prospects when they're cheap, but they have several problems with established, great players when those players cost some coin.

[RedsManRick]

Corrected this one for you Cyclone.

Reds fans love prospects when they're cheap, but they have several problems with established, mediocre players when those players cost some coin. And they hate Adam Dunn whenever he doesn't hit a homer.

[bucksfan2]

I have a feeling that Howard will have a tough year next season. He regressed from the NL MVP to an Adam Dunn type player (not that being an Adam Dunn type player is a bad thing). I think the Philly fans will expect him to return to MVP form especially for what he is being paid.