Bill James projections - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

Cooper · 11-23-2007, 11:28 PM

This may have been done already and i can't do it justice....but did anyone see the Bill James projections for 2008?

Some Reds of note were Joey Votto with a .375 obp and a .586 slugging percentage.

Hamilton's numbers were good --somewhere in the range of a .960-.980 OPS....39 homers.

Eddy E. had 16 win shares- B. Phillips had 17....that surprised me until i looked into the numbers.

I forgot to look up Bruce's projection.

Dunn has a 7% chance at 700 hr's.

As always -good stuff when he writes. Hopefully,i have remembered correctly.

reds44 · 11-23-2007, 11:34 PM

If Votto posts a .961 OPS and Hamilton hits 40 homers, I honestly don't see how this team would miss the playoffs.

The lineup would be ungodly good. Think of it.

1. Hamilton (40 homers)
2. Phillips (arounnd 30 homers and 30 stolen bases)
3. Dunn (40+ homers, 100 RBIs)
4. Griffey (around 30 homers, even if he gets hurt Bruce steps in)
5. Edwin (around .300, alot of doubles, probably around 90 RBIs)
6. Votto (.961 OPS)

Then just put whoever as the bottom 3. Good luck stopping that.

StillFunkyB · 11-24-2007, 12:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by reds44

If Votto posts a .961 OPS and Hamilton hits 40 homers, I honestly don't see how this team would miss the playoffs.

The lineup would be ungodly good. Think of it.

1. Hamilton (40 homers)
2. Phillips (arounnd 30 homers and 30 stolen bases)
3. Dunn (40+ homers, 100 RBIs)
4. Griffey (around 30 homers, even if he gets hurt Bruce steps in)
5. Edwin (around .300, alot of doubles, probably around 90 RBIs)
6. Votto (.961 OPS)

Then just put whoever as the bottom 3. Good luck stopping that.

Pitching wins championships.

reds44 · 11-24-2007, 12:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StillFunkyB

Pitching wins championships.

Hitting can get you into the playoffs though. Look at the Yankees.

KronoRed · 11-24-2007, 12:28 AM

I'll trade some hitting for some pitching and some banners and rings

Cooper · 11-24-2007, 02:09 AM

the park factor plays into things in a big way....iirc,itwas 104 over the last 3 years ...that puts it 2ndor 3rd in the nl.

the homerun park factor came in around 128 for both right handers and lefties.....that's way up there.

gabp is coors lite east.

cincinnati chili · 11-24-2007, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by reds44

Hitting can get you into the playoffs though. Look at the Yankees.

I think the Phillies are the ones you want to look at.

The Yanks were in the middle of the pack in team ERA (4.48), and were barely half a run worse than the league best Red Sox (3.87).

In other words, they had decent pitching (not decent FOR THE MONEY, but decent) and the best offense in the major leagues by far.

By contrast, the Reds had an average offense and the league's worst pitching/defense combo.

RedsBaron · 11-24-2007, 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StillFunkyB

Pitching wins championships.

The Big Red Machine of 1975-76 says hi.

BCubb2003 · 11-24-2007, 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cooper

the park factor plays into things in a big way....iirc,itwas 104 over the last 3 years ...that puts it 2ndor 3rd in the nl.

the homerun park factor came in around 128 for both right handers and lefties.....that's way up there.

gabp is coors lite east.

Maybe the Reds need a dehumidor.

red-in-la · 11-24-2007, 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RedsBaron

The Big Red Machine of 1975-76 says hi.

1976 BRM was 2nd in the NL in pitching.....

red-in-la · 11-24-2007, 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cooper

This may have been done already and i can't do it justice....but did anyone see the Bill James projections for 2008?

Some Reds of note were Joey Votto with a .375 obp and a .586 slugging percentage.

Hamilton's numbers were good --somewhere in the range of a .960-.980 OPS....39 homers.

Eddy E. had 16 win shares- B. Phillips had 17....that surprised me until i looked into the numbers.

I forgot to look up Bruce's projection.

Dunn has a 7% chance at 700 hr's.

As always -good stuff when he writes. Hopefully,i have remembered correctly.

If he hits 700 HR's this coming season, he needs to bat 4th.

mbgrayson · 11-24-2007, 10:00 PM

Bill James 2008 Reds predictions: (The positions are my guess, not Bill James')

Catcher:
David Ross: 110 games, 330 ABs, .230/.310/.464 20 HRs
Javier Valentin: 104, 290, .266/.326/.407 8 HRs

1B
Joey Votto: 135, 460, .307/.388/.526 23 HRs
Scott Hatteburg: 55, 180 .272/.370/.394 4 HRs

2B
Brandon Phillips: 155, 630 .270/.318/.440 23 HRs
Jorge Cantu: 75, 180, .272/.328/.456 6 HRs

SS
Alex Gonzales: 120, 425, .254/.308/.416 13 HRs
Jeff Keppinger: 80, 255, .322/.382/.420 3 HRs

3B
Edwin Encarnacion: 137, 494, .296/.366/.490 20 HRs
Ryan Freel: 114, 381, .265/.347/.367 5 HRs

RF
Ken Griffey Jr.: 125, 495, .263/.353/.487 29 HRs
Jay Bruce: 143, 535 .308/.363/.602 36 HRs

CF
Josh Hamilton: 115, 410 .305/.382/.598 31 HRs
Norris Hopper: 90, 220, .318/.362/.364 0 HRs

LF
Adam Dunn: 158, 566, .251/.386/.537 43 HRs

Name: Games, ABs, .avg/.obp/.slg HRs

These are all from the 2008 Bill James Handbook, published 11/07

Jpup · 11-24-2007, 11:44 PM

I hope Jay Bruce plays that much, but I just don't see him on the big club this year unless Jr. is traded.

Blitz Dorsey · 11-25-2007, 12:09 AM

I didn't know Bill James was still smoking. Pass some of that over here.

Seriously, if Jay Bruce hits 36 HRs for the Reds this year, Skyline Chili is on me for everyone here. I would love to have to pay up on that bet. Cheese coneys, 3-ways, 4-ways, whatever your pleasure (save the Ellen jokes).

Screwball · 11-25-2007, 12:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey

I didn't know Bill James was still smoking. Pass some of that over here.

Seriously, if Jay Bruce hits 36 HRs for the Reds this year, Skyline Chili is on me for everyone here. I would love to have to pay up on that bet. Cheese coneys, 3-ways, 4-ways, whatever your pleasure (save the Ellen jokes).

Do you think he's not going to play enough or he simply isn't good enough to hit 36 HRs?

11-23-2007, 11:28 PM	#1
Cooper Member Join Date: Jul 2000 Location: Richmond, Indiana Posts: 1,586	Bill James projections This may have been done already and i can't do it justice....but did anyone see the Bill James projections for 2008? Some Reds of note were Joey Votto with a .375 obp and a .586 slugging percentage. Hamilton's numbers were good --somewhere in the range of a .960-.980 OPS....39 homers. Eddy E. had 16 win shares- B. Phillips had 17....that surprised me until i looked into the numbers. I forgot to look up Bruce's projection. Dunn has a 7% chance at 700 hr's. As always -good stuff when he writes. Hopefully,i have remembered correctly.

11-23-2007, 11:34 PM	#2
reds44 #TheReturn Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Northern Illinois Posts: 23,655	Re: Bill James projections If Votto posts a .961 OPS and Hamilton hits 40 homers, I honestly don't see how this team would miss the playoffs. The lineup would be ungodly good. Think of it. 1. Hamilton (40 homers) 2. Phillips (arounnd 30 homers and 30 stolen bases) 3. Dunn (40+ homers, 100 RBIs) 4. Griffey (around 30 homers, even if he gets hurt Bruce steps in) 5. Edwin (around .300, alot of doubles, probably around 90 RBIs) 6. Votto (.961 OPS) Then just put whoever as the bottom 3. Good luck stopping that.

11-24-2007, 12:28 AM	#5
KronoRed The Lineups stink. Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: West N. Carolina Posts: 55,342	Re: Bill James projections I'll trade some hitting for some pitching and some banners and rings __________________ Go Gators!

11-24-2007, 02:09 AM	#6
Cooper Member Join Date: Jul 2000 Location: Richmond, Indiana Posts: 1,586	Re: Bill James projections the park factor plays into things in a big way....iirc,itwas 104 over the last 3 years ...that puts it 2ndor 3rd in the nl. the homerun park factor came in around 128 for both right handers and lefties.....that's way up there. gabp is coors lite east.

11-24-2007, 10:00 PM	#12
mbgrayson Red's fan Join Date: Dec 2005 Location: Montana Posts: 1,933	Re: Bill James projections Bill James 2008 Reds predictions: (The positions are my guess, not Bill James') Catcher: David Ross: 110 games, 330 ABs, .230/.310/.464 20 HRs Javier Valentin: 104, 290, .266/.326/.407 8 HRs 1B Joey Votto: 135, 460, .307/.388/.526 23 HRs Scott Hatteburg: 55, 180 .272/.370/.394 4 HRs 2B Brandon Phillips: 155, 630 .270/.318/.440 23 HRs Jorge Cantu: 75, 180, .272/.328/.456 6 HRs SS Alex Gonzales: 120, 425, .254/.308/.416 13 HRs Jeff Keppinger: 80, 255, .322/.382/.420 3 HRs 3B Edwin Encarnacion: 137, 494, .296/.366/.490 20 HRs Ryan Freel: 114, 381, .265/.347/.367 5 HRs RF Ken Griffey Jr.: 125, 495, .263/.353/.487 29 HRs Jay Bruce: 143, 535 .308/.363/.602 36 HRs CF Josh Hamilton: 115, 410 .305/.382/.598 31 HRs Norris Hopper: 90, 220, .318/.362/.364 0 HRs LF Adam Dunn: 158, 566, .251/.386/.537 43 HRs Name: Games, ABs, .avg/.obp/.slg HRs These are all from the 2008 Bill James Handbook, published 11/07 __________________ __________________ "I genuinely like this team. I like the vibe and spirit of this team. This is just the beginning." Dusty on 2/19/12. Last edited by mbgrayson; 11-24-2007 at 10:06 PM.

11-24-2007, 11:44 PM	#13
Jpup Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Southern KY Posts: 6,967	Re: Bill James projections I hope Jay Bruce plays that much, but I just don't see him on the big club this year unless Jr. is traded. __________________ "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

11-25-2007, 12:09 AM	#14
Blitz Dorsey Party like it's 1990 Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Columbus, OH Posts: 4,310	Re: Bill James projections I didn't know Bill James was still smoking. Pass some of that over here. Seriously, if Jay Bruce hits 36 HRs for the Reds this year, Skyline Chili is on me for everyone here. I would love to have to pay up on that bet. Cheese coneys, 3-ways, 4-ways, whatever your pleasure (save the Ellen jokes).

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode