Fay's Sunday Column: Reds Must Get Big Time Pitcher

[redsmetz]

John Fay's Reds Insider column was his usual tea leaf reading (i.e. he's reading the various fans' boards) and then his analysis of the situation. He discusses the Reds pursuit of Erik Bedard and what they may have to give up to acquire a pitcher like him. He concludes that the Reds must do it if they hope to win.

He states that without such a move, the Reds will be picked to finish 4th or 5th in the division. It's a conclusion I don't share because much of the division, at this point, has not improved. I'm not saying we don't need another pitcher or two and and I would concur that Bailey and Belisle remain for the time being question marks.

That said, at this point in the offseason, I think the Cardinals have not improved, nor have the Astros. As we stand now, I would see us playing better ball then either of them. I would suggest that even without a minor pitching move, we would finish no worse than 3rd place. Obviously, that's not a high enough, but I think we will sacrifice much of our future if we give up what Fay suggests in trying to acquire a top line pitcher.

Don't count Reds out for Bedard; Starter could be missing piece

When the Reds left the winter meetings in Nashville on Thursday, there was a sense that their mission had failed.

They had gone to Nashville expressly to get a starting pitcher. The effort focused on getting Erik Bedard.

Though Bedard remains a Baltimore Oriole, the Reds have not given up on him.

In fact, there are people in the organization confident that the deal will get done. One rated the chances at 75 percent.

General manager Wayne Krivsky let trade talks rest Friday. He planned to make calls Saturday night and today.

"We're still talking," he said. "There are still some things out there."

It's not a stretch to say that next season's success hinges on getting someone like Bedard.

If the Reds can land Bedard, they instantly become a contender in the National League Central.

In fact, they'd probably be picked right behind the Chicago Cubs.

If they don't land him, the Reds probably will be picked fourth or fifth. That's not to say they couldn't surprise people.

But they'd be a much more solid bet with Bedard between Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo in the rotation.

The Reds will have to give up a lot to get Bedard. Ownership is steadfast that Jay Bruce will not be included in any deal. Though Krivsky says there are no untouchables, there's no deal that will pry Bruce away.

If Bruce isn't in the deal, Homer Bailey probably will be. One of the reasons the Reds are willing to part with Bailey and not Bruce is a lot of people in the organization rate Johnny Cueto as highly or more so than Bailey.

The Reds don't have an outfielder in the minor leagues in Bruce's class.

But it will take more than Bailey to get the deal done. The Reds would have to include someone like Joey Votto or Josh Hamilton as well as a prospect.

Should the Reds trade away so much of the future to try to win in 2008?

I think they have to.

Bedard is 28, not 38, so they could count on him to be part of the rotation for a long time.

Fans are tired of the status quo - which for the last seven years has been losing.

After last season's debacle, another bad season might erode the season-ticket base.

As the Reds stand right now, it's going to be difficult to break the cycle of losing. Signing Francisco Cordero did wonders for the bullpen. But the rotation is shaky.

You've got Harang and Arroyo and a lot of question marks.

Can Matt Belisle become a consistent starter? Is Bailey ready to take the next step? Will someone emerge and take over the fifth spot?

Put Bedard in the mix and it changes everything. He'd give the Reds a left-hander in the rotation. His numbers last season - 13-5, 3.17 ERA, 221 strikeouts in 182 innings - are on par with Harang's (16-6, 3.73 ERA, 218 strikeouts in 2312/3 innings).

And remember, Bedard pitched in the American League East.

And if the Reds don't get Bedard?

The dropoff would be huge. They'd probably have to bring in a second-tier free agent. Jon Lieber's the only name on the list that intrigues me. Lieber was 3-6 with a 4.73 ERA last season, not exactly Bedard numbers.

But the Reds are hoping they don't have to go to Plan B.

[RedEye]

John Fay's Reds Insider column was his usual tea leaf reading (i.e. he's reading the various fans' boards) and then his analysis of the situation. He discusses the Reds pursuit of Erik Bedard and what they may have to give up to acquire a pitcher like him. He concludes that the Reds must do it if they hope to win.

I agree that the column is a lot of speculation, but he does at least mention someone "in the organization" who says the Bedard trade is "75 percent" likely to happen. So it's not all tea leaf reading.

[RedLegSuperStar]

I think Fay often tells people what they want to hear. However I think there is truth to this. He states in the article that those within the organization say that talks are on-going and that even one member said that it is a 75% chance of happening. Bedard would be the type to go after. He is another guy who can give you right around 200 innings and strike out 200+. Bedard also finished his season (last 10 games) 7-1 w/ a 2.34 era 81K / 27BB. That is huge considering the Reds normally don't have anything to play for at the end of the year and someone like that could finally push this team over the hump and out of this rut.

Homer Bailey, Joey Votto or Josh Hamilton, and 3 prospects not named Cueto or Bruce (maybe Sam Lecure, Elizardo Ramirez, and mid level IF prospect) to Baltimore

Erik Bedard and Hayden Penn to Cincinnati

Reds still come away with Bruce, Cueto, Encarnacion, and Phillips and that is huge. Reds would have one of the best 1-2-3 rotation in the bigs and I have to disagree with Fay. I think the Reds would be favored over the Cubs if Bedard was to be dealt here.

Zambrano < Harang
Lilly < Bedard
Hill - Arroyo
Marquis - Belisle
Marshall/Prior > Cueto/Maloney/Gardner/Thompson

And offense leans in favor of the Reds who are led by Dunn, Junior, Phillips, Hamilton/Votto, Encarnacion, and perhaps Bruce (depending on if Hamilton is moved) to match up with the Cubs Ramirez, Lee, and Soriano.

This is something this team, organization, and fan base needs to save a organization and restore greatness to a storied club like the Reds. You seen how excited we all got when the Reds signed Cordero.. imagine if the Reds landed a starter at the stature of Erik Bedard..

[chicoruiz]

I'll say it again: I wouldn't like this deal as described. Is Bedard more valuable than Bailey? Sure. Is the difference worth Hamilton and another prospect? I don't think so.

Fay seems to think that fans demand a big-name starter to prove that the Reds are serious about contending. I would have thought that the money they spent on a closer would have done that. Let's not make a deal unless it makes baseball sense.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by RedEye

I agree that the column is a lot of speculation, but he does at least mention someone "in the organization" who says the Bedard trade is "75 percent" likely to happen. So it's not all tea leaf reading.

I stand corrected on that point. I'm not a big John Fay fan and I guess that's not lost on folks here.

Regarding Redlegsuperstar's analysis, it's something to chew on. It's a cogent statement of the possibilities (and much deeper than Fay's "what have I read on the web" stuff (with a nod towards RedEye's noting some of his source is actual Reds staff).

[Krusty]

Do you think Krivsky and his troops whispered this to Fay? We all know how tight-lipped Krivsky is with trade negotiations.

[OldXOhio]

Originally Posted by chicoruiz

I'll say it again: I wouldn't like this deal as described. Is Bedard more valuable than Bailey? Sure. Is the difference worth Hamilton and another prospect? I don't think so.

I think you have to look at it another way: is the team better overall by making a trade of this magnitude? Sure they'd be giving up a lot, but they'd be dealing from a point of strength. While I'd hate to lose players like Hamilton and Votto, I don't disagree with the notion that this is still a 4th place team without another quality starter.

[Krusty]

Originally Posted by OldXOhio

I think you have to look at it another way: is the team better overall by making a trade of this magnitude? Sure they'd be giving up a lot, but they'd be dealing from a point of strength. While I'd hate to lose players like Hamilton and Votto, I don't disagree with the notion that this is still a 4th place team without another quality starter.

What has been the Reds' biggest problem since moving into GAB? Pitching. And if you can improve your rotation by getting one or two starters, why wouldn't you do it?

The one thing the Reds have no shortage of is hitters. Even mediocre hitters improve when they play at GAB.

[Benihana]

You absolutely have to make this deal if you're the Reds. Look at it this way- what would you trade for another Harang? Bedard is that, and perhaps even more. His numbers from last year are better than Harang's across the board, especially when you factor in he did it in the AL East, which as we saw out of Arroyo, means he's due for a big bump in numbers once he comes over here. Furthermore, he's left handed, which is something that is certainly lacking from this rotation.

The only thing that Fay fails to mention is that he will be a FA after 2009, and has indicated he will almost certainly test the market. While I would be much more comfortable if he signed a LTC, I still wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger. You can't play for 2010 at this point. Do what you can to improve the team for the next couple of years, and you still get to retain arguably the two or three biggest crown jewels of the system in Bruce, Cueto and either Votto or Hamilton. Not to mention, you hang onto the remainder of the major league core in guys like Dunn, Phillips, EdE, and Belisle (and of course Harang and Arroyo.) No question in my mind, get this done Wayne!

This team is an instant contender, and should be favored to make the playoffs for the next two years:

CF Hamilton
2B Phillips
LF Dunn
RF Griffey
3B Encarnacion
1B Hatteberg
SS Gonzalez
C Ross

SP Harang R
SP Bedard L
SP Arroyo R
SP Belisle R
SP Maloney/Cueto ?

RP Coutlangous L
RP Bray L
RP Stanton R
RP Burton R
RP Weathers R
CL Cordero R

with Jay Bruce ready to step in when one of the OF goes down

[OnBaseMachine]

I would rather trade Hamilton than Votto. We have Bruce in the wings ready to take over for Hamilton while no one is ready to replace Votto at first base.

[WMR]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

I would rather trade Hamilton than Votto. We have Bruce in the wings ready to take over for Hamilton while no one is ready to replace Votto at first base.

I wish they'd go ahead and bite the bullet and move Dunn over there.

I would love--LOVE--to have Hamilton and Bruce manning the corners for the next 5-7 seasons with a burner in CF.

That would be one of the best defensive outfields in the major leagues.

[corkedbat]

While I'd love to see the Redsland a big time arm, I don;'t think that a Top Tier starter. Is a "must". Adding a couple of strters to compete for spots at is a must. Adding the Top Drawer starter is only a must if he comes at a reasonable price.

I believe that the Bailey-for-Rijos could well be true, because WK is looking at his options if he decides to put Bruce int play for Bedard. If he is though, I hope he thinks about it and moves on.

The only way I deal Bruce for Bedard is with a 72hr. window. and a contract for 3 years and an option. Bedard is already a moderate durability ? and has said he will test the market.

I know that pitching is a must and I'm not averse to using one or two of our prime chips to get a deal, but I'm against gutting the future for a twp-year rental who will probably spend a month or two on the DL at some point.

[Benihana]

Trading Bailey and Votto while hanging on to Bruce, Cueto, and Hamilton is hardly gutting the future.

[WMR]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Trading Bailey and Votto while hanging on to Bruce, Cueto, and Hamilton is hardly gutting the future.

I would look at trading Votto--and then moving Dunn to 1st--as actually a case of addition by subtraction.

[corkedbat]

Originally Posted by Benihana

You absolutely have to make this deal if you're the Reds. Look at it this way- what would you trade for another Harang? Bedard is that, and perhaps even more. His numbers from last year are better than Harang's across the board, especially when you factor in he did it in the AL East, which as we saw out of Arroyo, means he's due for a big bump in numbers once he comes over here. Furthermore, he's left handed, which is something that is certainly lacking from this rotation.

The only thing that Fay fails to mention is that he will be a FA after 2009, and has indicated he will almost certainly test the market. While I would be much more comfortable if he signed a LTC, I still wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger. You can't play for 2010 at this point. Do what you can to improve the team for the next couple of years, and you still get to retain arguably the two or three biggest crown jewels of the system in Bruce, Cueto and either Votto or Hamilton. Not to mention, you hang onto the remainder of the major league core in guys like Dunn, Phillips, EdE, and Belisle (and of course Harang and Arroyo.) No question in my mind, get this done Wayne!

This team is an instant contender, and should be favored to make the playoffs for the next two years:

CF Hamilton
2B Phillips
LF Dunn
RF Griffey
3B Encarnacion
1B Hatteberg
SS Gonzalez
C Ross

SP Harang R
SP Bedard L
SP Arroyo R
SP Belisle R
SP Maloney/Cueto ?

RP Coutlangous L
RP Bray L
RP Stanton R
RP Burton R
RP Weathers R
CL Cordero R

with Jay Bruce ready to step in when one of the OF goes down

Most would agree, but if Bailey/Cueto, Hamilton/Votto and any number of B prospects would have gotten the deal done, Bedard would already be in a Reds uniform though.

It would seem, at this point, you would have to include Bruce or at least three from among Bailey, Cueto, Hamilton, Votto, Phillips & Encarnacion to land 2yrs. of Bedard. I would not do it. It will be interesting to see what the price is as ST & the season near though and some of the other pitching dominoes start to fall.