Diamondbacks make offer for Haren

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

He is pragmatic, but as I said, it comes down what he wants, not what he'll settle for.

It just so happens that Bruce--being the Reds' Cristal--is exactly who he'd target from the Reds. I can't imagine in any universe Beane dealing Haren for Cueto, a guy most smart folks would be wise to slot in the pen. Beane gets teams to cough up effective relievers as throw-ins to deals.

For Haren Beane will get an all-star caliber bat or a rotation arm very nearly ready to produce. He'll get it too.

And what in the world makes you so positive that he will both want and need Bruce, and not settle for less?

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I think the analogy fails because Beane isn't doing harm to himself by holding back. It's not as if he owes it to anybody to trade away Haren. If he sees a deal that he thinks will improve his team, he'll make it. If he has reason to believe that waiting will net him a better offer, then by all means. It's not as if he's refusing to deal out of spite at the expense of his own team.

The analogy is more to the reasoning that "Beane won't trade unless he gets exactly what he wants."

I agree with the idea that Beane won't move until he gets a return he finds acceptable, but I disagree that he'll target specific players and wait until those specific individuals come available. He's smarter than that.

I also disagree that he isn't doing any harm to himself by holding back. He's got a hot commodity and it's a seller's market -- the future might not be quite as kind for a variety of reasons.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

I also disagree that he isn't doing any harm to himself by holding back. He's got a hot commodity and it's a seller's market -- the future might not be quite as kind for a variety of reasons.

Fair point, Haren probably won't start the 2008 All-Star Game. He's also more of a Harang-type workhorse than your standard ace. I've got zero problems with that, but next year we'll almost surely be hearing about how Haren's "on the decline" because he didn't match his 2007 numbers.

Seems to me the real question for the A's is do they have enough to take a stab at 2008? They might. They can pitch. If they get some health plus a little offensive improvement, the could challenge in a weak AL West (the Angels top my list of overrated clubs).

Beane might want to see how the club fares during the first half of the season before making the rebuild/compete decision (unless someone convinces him not to wait this winter).

So I could see where it might take a Jay Bruce offer to get them to budge, yet if they're seriously entertaining this DBacks offer, then forget about Jay Bruce. They're rebuilding now and the Reds can win the bidding war with less than the top stud on the farm.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

I also disagree that he isn't doing any harm to himself by holding back. He's got a hot commodity and it's a seller's market -- the future might not be quite as kind for a variety of reasons.

The market for young, cheap, good pitchers will never wane. Should he wait until February, or next July, he'll find plenty of willing buyers. And one might argue that if and when Johan and Bedard are moved, Haren will be that much more valuable as the clear cream of the crop.

[Matt700wlw]

Originally Posted by RedEye

I also have to imagine that Wayne has at least explored the option of trading for Haren. He and Beane seem to have a good relationship, so I assume they've spoken at least once or twice. If this is true, let's just hope Wayne doesn't get manipulated into giving up too much.

I believe he's explored it....I think he may realize that one isn't doable unless Jay Bruce is part of the deal....and Jay Bruce won't be part of any deal.

[Matt700wlw]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

Then it boils down to your point: does Beane feel any urgency to move Haren?

Nope.

He's just seeing what he can get.....if something blows him away, he'll pull the trigger.

[WMR]

Originally Posted by M2

That's your invention.

Since the best information we have on this is that Carlos Gonzalez, a RF with a CF bat, is the main guy in the talks with the DBacks, I think it's fair to say that your insistence that Bruce would have to be in on the deal is inoperable.

Joey Votto is a vastly superior (not to mention ready to produce) bat in comparison to Gonzalez. So let's not act like the A's are onto some other Brucian bat here. They're currently onto a Drew Stubbs-level player. Votto or Hamilton would be a massive upgrade.

Who's offering a pitcher in the high minors with Bailey's pedigree? The Dbacks are offering a chunky pitchability kid. Bailey's at the top of the prospect pitching market. He'd literally be the best regarded prospect for whom Beane has ever dealt.

So you can keep saying Bruce, but until I see an offer that's comparable to Bailey, Votto and Maloney (which is as good a deal as what the Marlins got for Miggy Cabrera AND Dontrelle Willis, if not better), then I see no reason why Bruce is some sort of must.

Perhaps Beane will decide not to deal Haren unless he gets a Bruce, but I'm seeing no indication that anyone's put together anything like an offer the Reds couldn't trump easily with a non-Bruce package.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by M2

That's your invention.

Since the best information we have on this is that Carlos Gonzalez, a RF with a CF bat, is the main guy in the talks with the DBacks, I think it's fair to say that your insistence that Bruce would have to be in on the deal is inoperable.

Joey Votto is a vastly superior (not to mention ready to produce) bat in comparison to Gonzalez. So let's not act like the A's are onto some other Brucian bat here. They're currently onto a Drew Stubbs-level player. Votto or Hamilton would be a massive upgrade.

Who's offering a pitcher in the high minors with Bailey's pedigree? The Dbacks are offering a chunky pitchability kid. Bailey's at the top of the prospect pitching market. He'd literally be the best regarded prospect for whom Beane has ever dealt.

So you can keep saying Bruce, but until I see an offer that's comparable to Bailey, Votto and Maloney (which is as good a deal as what the Marlins got for Miggy Cabrera AND Dontrelle Willis, if not better), then I see no reason why Bruce is some sort of must.

Perhaps Beane will decide not to deal Haren unless he gets a Bruce, but I'm seeing no indication that anyone's put together anything like an offer the Reds couldn't trump easily with a non-Bruce package.

You may be right--Votto just might be up his alley.

But I'd submit that you're being naive if you think Bailey is up Beane's alley.

I imagine Beane will be able to pry away Hughes or Chamberlin from the Yanks--he just has to wait a bit; that is, wait until the Sox have a ten game lead on the Yanks in mid-June.

If your reasoning is correct--that Beane is *really* entertaining that midden from the D-Backs, then even the most spartan Reds' package would have gotten the job done and Haren would be at the mic for the news conference.

I think the D-Backs stuff is a D-Backs leak with no feedback from Beane attached.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

But I'd submit that you're being naive if you think Bailey is up Beane's alley.

Bailey did go into Oakland and own the A's.....

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Bailey did go into Oakland and own the A's.....

The A's rotation has been lousy with control-hampered supposed power arms, hasn't it?

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

You may be right--Votto just might be up his alley.

But I'd submit that you're being naive if you think Bailey is up Beane's alley.

We're in a bit of agreement here on Beane-- he isn't as tempted by shiny things as other GMs. He's the kind of guy that would rather have 10 nice suits in the closet than one tailored Armani. As such, I think you can appeal to his pragmatic side with an offer of multiple good players as opposed to one amazing player and a lot of throw-in crap.

Thats why I think this whole Bruce argument is a bit of a fools errand.

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

We're in a bit of agreement here on Beane-- he isn't as tempted by shiny things as other GMs. He's the kind of guy that would rather have 10 nice suits in the closet than one tailored Armani. As such, I think you can appeal to his pragmatic side with an offer of multiple good players as opposed to one amazing player and a lot of throw-in crap.

Thats why I think this whole Bruce argument is a bit of a fools errand.

I can see where he might go for Votto, Hamilton, and Cueto.

That puts something of a dent in the 2008 Reds. Would you do that deal?

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I can see where he might go for Votto, Hamilton, and Cueto.

That puts something of a dent in the 2008 Reds. Would you do that deal?

Sub in Stubbs for either Votto or Hamilton and you have a deal. And I think that Beane would have an interest in Stubbs, as well.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

I can see where he might go for Votto, Hamilton, and Cueto.

That puts something of a dent in the 2008 Reds. Would you do that deal?

Maybe not...but I think you could avoid giving 3 ML ready players by subbing in 2 "not there yet" mid-high ceiling players, like Maloney, Stubbs, Francisco or Pelland.

Haren + Toss in Prospect for Cueto, Votto, Stubbs and Pelland.

See if Beane bites.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

But I'd submit that you're being naive if you think Bailey is up Beane's alley.

I imagine Beane will be able to pry away Hughes or Chamberlin from the Yanks--he just has to wait a bit; that is, wait until the Sox have a ten game lead on the Yanks in mid-June.

Hughes, Bailey, what's the difference? Seriously, I don't see the point in splitting that hair. Hughes has got better command, Bailey's arm is more likely to stay attached, both are way overhyped. Chamberlain's a different animal, but I'm not convinced he's going to have long-term success and health if moves out of the bullpen.

Frankly, trading Haren for a prospect pitcher is a bad idea in baseball terms. It's a pitcher on whom you can absolutely rely for one on whom you probably can't (at least not in the immediate). If Oakland makes this deal, it's got to get quantity.

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

If your reasoning is correct--that Beane is *really* entertaining that midden from the D-Backs, then even the most spartan Reds' package would have gotten the job done and Haren would be at the mic for the news conference.

I think the D-Backs stuff is a D-Backs leak with no feedback from Beane attached.

Or it could be the A's leaking the offer to see who might be spurred to beat it.

Generally, I'd think that if the A's are still talking to the DBacks and those are the names being bandied about, then Beane's just being polite. As you've noted, it's not like Beane has to pull the trigger today, so he might be looking to swing the market his way before he makes the decision on whether anyone's offered enough.