Right handed hitting on the Reds

[Kc61]

RedsManRicks chart demonstrates a clear need for right handed power on this team. Those who want to use the lefties, note that Dunn, Griffey, Votto, Hamilton all below 800 OPS against lefties. Of the starters, only Phillips is superior against lefties. Reds need another guy who can do this.

[Benihana]

How about Keppinger as the righty platoon guy at 1B?

I never realized how well he hits against lefties. Given that he can play SS and 3B, I'm sure he could handle himself well at 1B.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Kc61

RedsManRicks chart demonstrates a clear need for right handed power on this team. Those who want to use the lefties, note that Dunn, Griffey, Votto, Hamilton all below 800 OPS against lefties. Of the starters, only Phillips is superior against lefties. Reds need another guy who can do this.

I would argue that our power is ok. The problem lies more in a low OBP driven by a low BA. Finding a platoon partner at 1B who actually hits lefties would help immensely. Conine merely sucked less than Hatteberg. Guys playing a platoon role should not OPS under .800 getting only favorable matchups.

I think using Keppinger in that role will be a positive step forward. Freel returning to normal will help too. He was plagued by a bit of a pop-up problem last year that kept his BA down. Plus we can hope that EE will continue to develop, Hamilton will get a bit better, and Alex Gonzalezes splits will straighten up.

We could certainly use a big righty bopper, but I wouldn't be at all surprise to see us rebound to the .760-.770 OPS range with the crew we've got.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I would argue that our power is ok. The problem lies more in a low OBP driven by a low BA. Finding a platoon partner at 1B who actually hits lefties would help immensely. Conine merely sucked less than Hatteberg. Guys playing a platoon role should not OPS under .800 getting only favorable matchups.

I think using Keppinger in that role will be a positive step forward. Freel returning to normal will help too. He was plagued by a bit of a pop-up problem last year that kept his BA down. Plus we can hope that EE will continue to develop, Hamilton will get a bit better, and Alex Gonzalezes splits will straighten up.

We could certainly use a big righty bopper, but I wouldn't be at all surprise to see us rebound to the .760-.770 OPS range with the crew we've got.

One of two things has to happen. Either EE has to resume his previous prowess against lefties. Last year he had a poor year against lefty pitching, in 2006 it was better.

Or the Reds have to make deals to get a righty power hitter at first base or in the outfield on a regular basis.

You need someone at the power positions who feasts off lefty pitching.

[pahster]

Lets also not forget that over the last three years Dunn has had a line of .235/.356/.467/.823. Not too shabby. Over the entirety of his career he's been a little better: .241/.360/482/.842.

It's difficult to project how well Votto will fair against lefties next year. I don't think the 26 ABs he got last year should carry a whole lot of weight. As I recall, he struggled in AAA against lefties but still got on base at a good clip. That's not without value (assuming, of course, that it translates to the major league level).

Keppinger has looked pretty good so far. I'm in wait and see mode with him.

[pahster]

Originally Posted by Kc61

One of two things has to happen. Either EE has to resume his previous prowess against lefties. Last year he had a poor year against lefty pitching, in 2006 it was better.

I wouldn't call EE's 2007 vs lefties "poor." It wasn't as good as many of us would have liked, but an OBP heavy .804 OPS isn't anything to scoff at.

[pedro]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I think using Keppinger in that role will be a positive step forward.

Sure beats Jorge Cantu.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by pahster

I wouldn't call EE's 2007 vs lefties "poor." It wasn't as good as many of us would have liked, but an OBP heavy .802 OPS isn't anything to scoff at.

Actually, as I recall, EE's numbers v lefties through most of last year were terrible. They spiked up at the end, when the season was lost. And .802 is not what you want from a top righty bat against lefties, sorry. You want the numbers Phillips put up.

Indeed, the OBP part is a negative, not a positive, because it means that the power part of the OPS was missing. EE's .426 slugging percentage against lefties was actually quite low for a righty power bat.

EE's lack of power overall last year was surprising and needs to be corrected if he is to be the answer at third base.

[KronoRed]

Originally Posted by pedro

Sure beats Jorge Cantu.

So does Jeff Conine

[pahster]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Actually, as I recall, EE's numbers v lefties through most of last year were terrible. They spiked up at the end, when the season was lost. And .802 is not what you want from a top righty bat against lefties, sorry. You want the numbers Phillips put up.

Indeed, the OBP part is a negative, not a positive, because it means that the power part of the OPS was missing. EE's .426 slugging percentage against lefties was actually quite low for a righty power bat.

EE's lack of power overall last year was surprising and needs to be corrected if he is to be the answer at third base.

OBP is never a negative. Never. I also never said EE was a "top right handed bat against lefties." He was solid, probably above average.

Phillips had a godly year against lefties. He was a huge plus in that regard.

I think it's realistic to expect the Reds to perform better against lefties next year than they did in 2007. Dunn will likely return to his norm. Hamilton will likely improve, as will Freel (if he's still posting a .400ish OPS, I'd hope he'd no longer be playing). We'll see what we get from Votto. I'd be more than satisfied with a solid OBP heavy OPS from him. Hopefully EE is able to produce over the entirety of the year.

Cantu probably wouldn't have helped much next year. He's just not very good.

[Will M]

1. I think ideally Freel should be replaced on the roster with a right handed hitter with power who can play 1B & RF.

2. With the current roster the Reds could run out this RH heavy lineup vs a tough lefty:

CF Hopper
1B Kep
3B EE
2B Phillips
LF Dunn
SS A Gonzalez
C Ross
RF Freel


3. Take the above lineup and replace Freel with a slugger who bats 6th and drop AG & Ross down a slot. Much better.

4. Kep & Freel are similar players: traditional utility/supersub role.
Replacing one of them with a RH power bat for the bench would be good ( if it can be done ). Someone like Kevin Mench on the bench with Freel traded would make the Reds better.

[Chip R]

While it would be nice to have a RH hitting 1B, I hope that Votto at least gets a serious chance to hit against lefties. If he stinks, so be it but at least give him a shot and don't automatically assume he can't hit lefties.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by pahster

OBP is never a negative. Never.
Cantu probably wouldn't have helped much next year. He's just not very good.

OBP is not itself a negative. But when an .802 OPS is heavily tilted toward OBP it means that the slugging component is missing. That's my point.

We are not talking about EE's overall performance, we are talking about a righty hitter's performance against lefty pitching. He should destroy lefty pitching. If EE is simply an average hitter against lefties, then the Reds are missing something.

As for EE generally, he had 42 extra base hits last year in 502 at bats. To put that total in context, Alex Gonzalez, in 393 at bats, had more.

[RedsManRick]

FWIW, Edwin's HR/FB was an fairly low 8.8% last year (below average). He was at 12.1% in 2006 and 16.7% in 2007. If he bounces back to the 12.5% range, that's another 4 homers right there. What gets me is how his doubles rate fell off the table. As an amateur scout, I saw a guy lunging for the ball a lot, jumping out of his shoes, and getting ahead of the ball. He popped up a lot of balls he should have been driving.

It shows in his big FB% spike, which would drive down his HR and 2B rates. I have no idea what the prescription for that is, but he seemed to be much better in the second half, so hopefully he can that momentum going. Bill James as him at .296/.366/.490 in 2008.

[pahster]

Originally Posted by Kc61

We are not talking about EE's overall performance, we are talking about a righty hitter's performance against lefty pitching. He should destroy lefty pitching. If EE is simply an average hitter against lefties, then the Reds are missing something.

As for EE generally, he had 42 extra base hits last year in 502 at bats. To put that total in context, Alex Gonzalez, in 393 at bats, had more.

You know, at first I thought you were off on your assertion that EE was merely average against lefties. I figured there'd be a .030ish point gap or so in his favor. You're right, though.

Right handed hitters vs left handed pitchers in 2007
.282/.351/.449/.799

Pretty close. I'd be interested in seeing what the median OBP, SLG, and OPS are. I doubt they're distributed normally. That said, average isn't bad and I fully expect EE to play better next year.