Here we go...Haren/D'backs get Haren

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by johngalt

What if we go:

Bailey, Votto, Encarnacion for Bedard

Hamilton, Cueto, Maloney, Stubbs for Haren

Probably not going to happen, but I think it illustrates what kind of cache of young talent we have to use as chips.

That would be make for an exciting year. However, I think it will be the worst nightmare of some posters that are clinging to the prospects

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

That would be make for an exciting year. However, I think it will be the worst nightmare of some posters that are clinging to the prospects

No, it would make for an exciting year or two, and some very likely dreadful years after that.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

No, it would make for an exciting year or two, and some very likely dreadful years after that.

Not necessarily.
You are assuming the Reds add no additional talent and have bad drafts over the next 2 years and no one in the minors improves.

Plus, as someone else said, there's always the option to flip some of those aces back for prospects in 2009 if we chose to go that way.

Also, no reason why at least some of those guys can't be extended.

Even if we were guaranteed to be dreadful in 2010-2013, I still make that trade. We've been dreadful for 7 years. I'm used to it.
If we don't make a move, we'll be lucky to be 500 this coming year.

Remember, last season the Reds played .444 winning ball, despite almost no injuries last year (just Jr at the end). That's dreadful, IMO, and sadly, it's the norm for Reds' baseball.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

No, it would make for an exciting year or two, and some very likely dreadful years after that.

The same statement could potentially be said about a rotation that features Bailey and Cueto -- an exciting year as they still have the new car smell, and then dreadful years after you realize you're the proud owner of two lemons.

No certainty in any of this.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

The same statement could potentially be said about a rotation that features Bailey and Cueto -- an exciting year as they still have the new car smell, and then dreadful years after you realize you're the proud owner of two lemons.

No certainty in any of this.

You also forgot that we would have also lost Stubbs, Votto, Hamilton, Maloney and Edwin in the same deal I was responding to. That is a lot of talent to replace along with Cueto and Bailey.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Not necessarily.
You are assuming the Reds add no additional talent and have bad drafts over the next 2 years and no one in the minors improves.

Plus, as someone else said, there's always the option to flip some of those aces back for prospects in 2009 if we chose to go that way.

Also, no reason why at least some of those guys can't be extended.

Even if we were guaranteed to be dreadful in 2010-2013, I still make that trade. We've been dreadful for 7 years. I'm used to it.
If we don't make a move, we'll be lucky to be 500 this coming year.

Remember, last season the Reds played .444 winning ball, despite almost no injuries last year (just Jr at the end). That's dreadful, IMO, and sadly, it's the norm for Reds' baseball.

Replacing talent of Edwin, Hamilton, Stubbs, Bailey, Cueto, Maloney, Votto and Edwin through 2 drafts and even through 2 years of the current system likely is not going to happen. We are talking everyone being a Top 100 prospect at some point in time there but Maloney and all of them being top 50 prospects at a point except Maloney and Stubbs. You don't just replace that in 2 years.

As far as last year sucking.... yeah, it did. However this team is not last years team. The bullpen is improved big time. The only guys we could trust are now moved back a rung. The rotation should be better than last year given how unlucky Belisle actually was and Bailey/Cueto stepping in to sure things up. Hamilton and Votto now have major league experience and are getting closer to their prime years, as is Edwin who really turned it up a notch in the second half. Maybe I am wearing some rose colored glasses, but I think the Reds have a solid team as is currently constructed outside 1 #4 type starter.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

As far as last year sucking.... yeah, it did. However this team is not last years team. The bullpen is improved big time. The only guys we could trust are now moved back a rung. The rotation should be better than last year given how unlucky Belisle actually was and Bailey/Cueto stepping in to sure things up. Hamilton and Votto now have major league experience and are getting closer to their prime years, as is Edwin who really turned it up a notch in the second half. Maybe I am wearing some rose colored glasses, but I think the Reds have a solid team as is currently constructed outside 1 #4 type starter.

As pointed out previously, though, the Reds lost no significant time due to injury of any key players.

Dunn, Griffey, Phillips, Harang and Arroyo were all relatively healthy for the majority of the season. Tough to bet on THAT happening again.

Further, I don't think you can count on Bailey and Cueto to do anything. Bailey looked a shade better than awful in his first big league stint last yer -- everyone says the talent is there, but he has yet to deliver. Cueto has yet to throw a major league inning, so I think it would be foolhardy to pencil him in for anything.

The bullpen is better with Cordero, but they still are lacking in the kinds of arms that throw innings when the team is trailing and looking to get back in the game. A 5 run 6th inning will torpedo a team losing 3-1 just as surely as it will torpedo a team winning 3-1. Right now, those innings are being thown by who? Majewski? Stanton? Coffey? Bray? Coutlangus? Not an inspiring cast of characters there.

This team is destined for a last place finish unless they get better. Throwing in completely unproven kids to the rotation, counting on the same old bullpen + 1, and hoping nobody gets injured is not improvement -- it's wishes and prayers.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

As pointed out previously, though, the Reds lost no significant time due to injury of any key players.

Dunn, Griffey, Phillips, Harang and Arroyo were all relatively healthy for the majority of the season. Tough to bet on THAT happening again.

I don't know.... Griffey is the only one who has ever had injury problems. He is likely the only guy I would even wonder about having an injury.... and given his defense and declining offense, he isn't the most difficult player to replace.

Further, I don't think you can count on Bailey and Cueto to do anything. Bailey looked a shade better than awful in his first big league stint last yer -- everyone says the talent is there, but he has yet to deliver. Cueto has yet to throw a major league inning, so I think it would be foolhardy to pencil him in for anything.

We will disagree on Bailey. As for Cueto, I think he could be league average this year in the major leagues.

The bullpen is better with Cordero, but they still are lacking in the kinds of arms that throw innings when the team is trailing and looking to get back in the game. A 5 run 6th inning will torpedo a team losing 3-1 just as surely as it will torpedo a team winning 3-1. Right now, those innings are being thown by who? Majewski? Stanton? Coffey? Bray? Coutlangus? Not an inspiring cast of characters there.

My question is, how often does a pitcher winning or losing 3-1 in the 6th inning leave the game? It doesn't happen very often. And yes, while we still have a cast of questionables before the back end, I don't think they will hurt as bad as they did last year.

This team is destined for a last place finish unless they get better. Throwing in completely unproven kids to the rotation, counting on the same old bullpen + 1, and hoping nobody gets injured is not improvement -- it's wishes and prayers.

Come on. The Pirates, Cardinals and Astros are not as good as we are right now. As far as throwing unproven kids into the rotation being wishes and prayers.... no, its called having good scouting and knowing what you are going to get out of them. Yovani Gallardo sure helped the Brewers down the stretch last year. Tim Lincecum was pretty solid for a horrible Giants team. Gallardo and Cueto are pretty similar in my mind. Not the tallest guys ever, good control, 90-94 MPH fastballs and solid offspeed stuff. As for injuries, the key is to having depth and the only place we don't have that is in the rotation, although our current horses have never had injury problems. Sure, if Harang goes down we are screwed.... but we would be screwed if he went down if we had Bedard too.

[RedsManRick]

Gallardo: 6'1", 205
Cueto: 5'11", 175

Not quite the same. But your point is well taken. You can't just assume that you aren't going to get anything from your young guys. You need to be smart about how much you count on them and project conservatively, but you shouldn't build your roster as if they don't even exist.

Having a number of young, cheap, high ceiling guys around and ready to get their opportunity IS improvement over having an identical team without those guys around. Two years ago the Reds were a 73 win team with 80 upside if everything went right. The 2008 Reds look like a 78 win team with 90 win upside if things pan out.

Sure, we need still need to improve and continue to turn upside in to realized performance. We shouldn't sit on our hands, sit back, and wait for the 90 wins to roll in just because that's a remote possibility with the current set of talent. But we also should discount the possibility that Homer, Cueto, etc. DO provide significant value.

his team is destined for a last place finish unless they get better. Throwing in completely unproven kids to the rotation, counting on the same old bullpen + 1, and hoping nobody gets injured is not improvement -- it's wishes and prayers.

I don't know of anyone, including Doug, who thinks that the Reds as currently constructed are odds on favorites to make the playoffs. But there are NO guarantees. No team is luckproof. You try to build up the best core you can, balancing certainty with upside. The trick is, it's really hard to just magically turn in to 90+ win team with any certainty just by shifting assets around. You have to have some of your assets appreciate. It's like building a stock portfolio.

I think everybody on this board would take an 5 win player over a maybe someday 7 win prospect. But when you have to trade a potential 20 wins worth of prospects for that 5 win player, and it's 6 years of those wins versus 2 years of the 5, the calculus changes.

If the Reds were sitting at an 85 win roster and could trade a bunch of upside to get to a more certain 90 win roster, great. But we're sitting in the 70's and can't afford to go out and buy 15 wins without trading away nearly ever drop of our upside. You want to talk about the risk of what happens when somebody get hurts? What happens when we trade away every prospect for a "sure thing" and then that "sure thing" gets injured. What's the backup plan then?

Completely discounting the upside of prospects is a good way to lock yourself in to mediocrity. Completely counting on the upside of prospects is good way to lock yourself in to a 99% chance of suck and a 1% chance of greatness. But there's a middle road, and it seems to me the Reds are doing a pretty good job of walking it.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Completely discounting the upside of prospects is a good way to lock yourself in to mediocrity. Completely counting on the upside of prospects is good way to lock yourself in to a 99% chance of suck and a 1% chance of greatness. But there's a middle road, and it seems to me the Reds are doing a pretty good job of walking it.

I agree with this last part. That's why trading Bailey and Votto (with whatever filler is neccessary) for Bedard makes so much sense.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I agree with this last part. That's why trading Bailey and Votto (with whatever filler is neccessary) for Bedard makes so much sense.

Right, it makes sense to trade away some of that upside for a more quickly and more likely realized value. But in those sorts of trdaes, you only get a % of that upside back in return. If the Reds trade away 25 wins of upside for 10 wins of upside, it leaves us with an 86 team and nowhere to go but down. We have to be careful about moving up our core expectations with out killing our ceiling in the process.

If the trade is Bruce, Cueto, and Hamilton, as some Orioles fan continue to insist is fair (and likely), then the scales start the tip.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Gallardo: 6'1", 205
Cueto: 5'11", 175

Not quite the same. But your point is well taken. You can't just assume that you aren't going to get anything from your young guys. You need to be smart about how much you count on them and project conservatively, but you shouldn't build your roster as if they don't even exist.

I have seen Cueto weighed in at 198 on the Lookouts official page. He is listed at 185 on Milb.com. My point was more that the two are similar in that they throw similar stuff, good control and aren't overly tall pitchers.

[corkedbat]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I agree with this last part. That's why trading Bailey and Votto (with whatever filler is neccessary) for Bedard makes so much sense.

If you deal your young talent judiciously to add someone like Bedard or Haren, but still maintain a solid nucleus or young guys, you help your future as well as the present.

Adding guys like Bedard and Cordero keep your fans at bay and help you win now. They also allow you to avoid rushing prospects to the majors prematurely and they allow you to build up the farm system for a couple of more years to replace some of the guys who are aging or getting too expensive or at least provide you surpluses to trade to replace them if a suitbable candidate is not in the system.

[Reds Fanatic]

Haren has been traded the the Diamondbacks in a 6 player deal. I don't have the names of all the players.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7565926

The A's have completed the first major trade involving a starting pitcher this off-season, sending right-hander Dan Haren to the Diamondbacks for a package of prospects, according to major-league sources.

[Matt700wlw]

Well that is one hell of a starting staff!!

Now, if they could only score some runs...