Who is more ready?

[mlbfan30]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

A+ this year? Because if you are going to use it, then we need to stop having this conversation. Bailey pitched 8 innings of REHAB in Sarasota this year. To use those numbers in a cmoparison is beyond silly.

Yea I know, but still..... when Bailey and when Cueto pitched in A+, Cueto did better. Will you not agree with that? I don't care if Bailey pitched 1 inning lefty, Cueto did better in A+ at the same age.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mlbfan30

Yea I know, but still..... when Bailey and when Cueto pitched in A+, Cueto did better. Will you not agree with that? I don't care if Bailey pitched 1 inning lefty, Cueto did better in A+ at the same age.

That might be the dumbest thing I have ever read. The guy was on rehab and you want to use it as a comparison to someone else who wasn't? I am sorry for saying its dumb, but it really is a dumb argument. Yes, Cueto pitched better in Sarasota this year than Bailey. Bailey also was on rehab after not pitching for 5 weeks too.

Bailey also pitched better than Cueto did in Sarasota last year compared to Cueto this year, and he was a full year younger in 2006 in Sarasota than Cueto was this year in Sarasota in 2007.

Bailey had a WHIP of 1.00 compared to Cuetos 1.19, he had a lower ERA, a lot fewer hits, a VERY similar walk rate (2.41 for Cueto and 2.80 for Bailey) and Bailey had a much stronger strikeout rate (10.06 to Cuetos 8.27).

[TRF]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Its all a matter of what you like I guess. I just feel that Homer's command is going to improve and given his hit rates all the way up the ladder, when that happens he is going to be very, very good. Don't get me wrong, I love Cueto, but I just don't see him having batters struggle as much with his stuff. As far as the numbers in the minor leagues go, it is a little more difficult to compare them in the sense that Homer had different things to deal with than Cueto. He had the piggy back pitching system while he was in Dayton. Then he was also a year younger along the way than Cueto for every comparison and that makes it a little different when comparing numbers as well.

Well, he isn't that much younger, and if you consider their respective backgrounds, I bet Bailey had the benefit of better coaching growing up.

There is no question that Cueto has better command, yet you think Bailey's will improve when he's never shown that he can do that. His BB rate has gone UP every year. You say Cueto cannot make hitters struggle yet Cueto in his ML career allows only about a hit more per 9 than Bailey. So Bailey can improve in an area where he's never shown that ability, but Cueto can't even though his H/9 dropped when he went from A+ to AA.

For all the insight you provide about the Reds' minor league system and it's players, you tend to turn a blind eye when it comes to your favorites. The warts on Bailey are bigger than the ones on Cueto. Cueto's biggest knock against him is his size. I hope Bailey can become Nolan Ryan, I'm pretty sure Cueto can be Roy Oswalt.

[Joseph]

Originally Posted by TRF

I'm pretty sure Cueto can be Roy Oswalt.

So we've got a guy who will win 112 games over the next 7 seasons while posting an ERA of no worse than 3.49?

Sign me up.

Remember, he doesn't get to pitch against the Reds.

[TRF]

I think a Roy Oswalt like career is his ceiling, but that he's more likely to hit his ceiling than Bailey is RIGHT NOW. If Bailey can ever get his command issues and his stamina issues under control perhaps he can be even better than that. But so far, his body of work has not shown it.

[jojo]

It's kind of a cliche but, while stuff will get you signed, command will get you promoted to the dance....

Command is the first prerequisite for a pitcher to be successful in the majors.

In other words when considering the pitcher's trifecta: BB/9 >>> K/9 >>>>>>> BIP tendencies.

It takes really, really exceptional K/9 and BIP tendencies to overcome bad BB/9.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by jojo

It's kind of a cliche but, while stuff will get you signed, command will get you promoted to the dance....

Command is the first prerequisite for a pitcher to be successful in the majors.

In other words when considering the pitcher's trifecta: BB/9 >>> K/9 >>>>>>> BIP tendencies.

It takes really, really exceptional K/9 and BIP tendencies to overcome bad BB/9.

And thats generally where 'stuff' comes in handy.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

Well, he isn't that much younger, and if you consider their respective backgrounds, I bet Bailey had the benefit of better coaching growing up.

There is no question that Cueto has better command, yet you think Bailey's will improve when he's never shown that he can do that. His BB rate has gone UP every year. You say Cueto cannot make hitters struggle yet Cueto in his ML career allows only about a hit more per 9 than Bailey. So Bailey can improve in an area where he's never shown that ability, but Cueto can't even though his H/9 dropped when he went from A+ to AA.

I have seen Baileys control improve with my eyes. Likewise I have seen Cueto's stuff get a little bit better too from April of last year to the end of this year. Bailey's walk rate also dropped BIG TIME from 2005 to 2006. If I made a comment where Cueto couldn't improve his stuff, I didn't mean that. At the same time though, Baileys stuff is far and away the better of the two players.

For all the insight you provide about the Reds' minor league system and it's players, you tend to turn a blind eye when it comes to your favorites. The warts on Bailey are bigger than the ones on Cueto. Cueto's biggest knock against him is his size. I hope Bailey can become Nolan Ryan, I'm pretty sure Cueto can be Roy Oswalt.

Cueto is one of my favorites, so I don't know what you are trying to say. Heck, Cueto is right there with Bailey in my mind as a prospect. He has a higher floor than Bailey, but the cieling isn't there. Personally, I don't think the 'warts' on Bailey are all that big. I think he did a lot of growing up this year in the majors. The numbers overall don't look that good, but he was dominant at times in his 9 starts at the age of 21 in the major leagues. I saw improvement big time from April in Louisville to June in Cincinnati to September in Cincinnati. The numbers don't always bear things out that you can tell that, but my eyes told me a lot from those different points in time about Bailey.

[TRF]

I do hope you are right, but the numbers say your eyes were a bit misleading. If anything, Bailey's command has worsened, not gotten better. I expect that somewhat at the major league level, as that is a whole 'nother world than AAA, but his command was bad in AAA. Cueto's has been outstanding at EVERY level. I'm not sure what pitches each throws, but right now I think Cueto is better prepared for a SP role on the Reds than Bailey based on numbers alone. And since some of the Red's brass has been quoted as saying Cueto might be the better prospect, I think that lends some credence to the idea.

Of course I'm not sure either should be anywhere but AAA in 2008.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

I do hope you are right, but the numbers say your eyes were a bit misleading. If anything, Bailey's command has worsened, not gotten better. I expect that somewhat at the major league level, as that is a whole 'nother world than AAA, but his command was bad in AAA. Cueto's has been outstanding at EVERY level. I'm not sure what pitches each throws, but right now I think Cueto is better prepared for a SP role on the Reds than Bailey based on numbers alone. And since some of the Red's brass has been quoted as saying Cueto might be the better prospect, I think that lends some credence to the idea.

Of course I'm not sure either should be anywhere but AAA in 2008.

His command got better, the hitters did too though and were able to foul more stuff off. There is some Reds brass that may think Cueto is better suited to succeed, but likewise there are the other group saying Bailey is. I just think we see the real Homer Bailey next year, not the guy we saw at times this year.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

And thats generally where 'stuff' comes in handy.

I think you're ignoring the elephant in the closet. How many major league starters with a BB\9>4.25 (aka Homer's minor league career numbers) were effective last season? Heck, how many were even given enough rope to be qualified?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by jojo

I think you're ignoring the elephant in the closet. How many major league starters with a BB\9>4.25 (aka Homer's minor league career numbers) were effective last season? Heck, how many were even given enough rope to be qualified?

Well that also makes the assumption that I believe Bailey is going to fall in that category next year and I just don't see it happening. However if he does fall into that range, then yes, he needs more time. I just don't see that one playing itself out that way.

[pedro]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Well that also makes the assumption that I believe Bailey is going to fall in that category next year and I just don't see it happening. However if he does fall into that range, then yes, he needs more time. I just don't see that one playing itself out that way.

But Doug, Bailey walked 4.23 / 9 over the course of his minor league career and walked 4.28 / 9 last year at Louisville. How can you honestly assert that he's going to fair better in the major leagues against vastly better competition in his first full year in the majors? It just doesn't make sense.

[dougdirt]

I guess its just a little bit of faith that he continues to improve along with the actual improvement that I did see. As far as his control goes, 2005 was long ago and his BB rate was very high that year. 2006 it got a whole lot better. I think he still falls between 3.5 and 4 next year, but don't see it being higher than that. I think his strikeouts come in at 8 per 9 as well next year.

[pedro]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I guess its just a little bit of faith that he continues to improve along with the actual improvement that I did see. As far as his control goes, 2005 was long ago and his BB rate was very high that year. 2006 it got a whole lot better. I think he still falls between 3.5 and 4 next year, but don't see it being higher than that. I think his strikeouts come in at 8 per 9 as well next year.

I certainly hope you're right but I don't hold out much hope. I think that's expecting a lot from a guy who IMO clearly hasn't proven in the minors that he's ready to put up such a performance at the major league level. Personally I think the best thing for his development would be to spend at least the first half of next year at AAA. Unfortunately, warts and all, it's going to be hard to keep him off of this lousy (as it stands now) staff. I really hope that the Reds land some other starters because at the very least I'd prefer to see Bailey begin the year in middle relief.