Fay Update (Time for a new Bedard thread)

[Benihana]

Bedard update

While we wait for the Mitchell Report, here's an update:

The Reds remain hopeful that they can land Erik Bedard but not as hopeful as they were last week. Let's say 50-50. The Orioles continue to insist on Jay Bruce. The Reds aren't going to give him up. I'm not sure how or if the Miguel Tejada trade will affect this. The Orioles did get Luke Scott, a left-handed hitting outfielder, in the trade.

Even if the Reds can't land Bedard, they're dead set on having a proven starter in the mix. Oakland's Dan Haren is the best available. But Billy Beane is asking a lot -- probably too much for the Reds' tastes. That leaves Cliff Lee and the second-tier free agents. Dusty Baker told some people at the Winter Meetings that he would like to have Mark Prior, who the Cubs non-tendered. He's a huge risk because of his medical history. But, if he's healthy, the reward would be large.

Carlos Silva remains on unsigned. I'd be surprised if the Reds would lay out that kind of coin. But, then again, I didn't think they'd pay $46 million for Francisco Cordero.

-Fay

[Highlifeman21]

So next week, it'll be a 25% chance. Last week, 75%. This week, 50%.

Thanks for the update, Fay.

[Benihana]

Who will blink first- MacPhail or Krivsky? I wonder if he's asking for Bruce straight up or as part of a package?

[wheels]

Good grief.

I can't see the Bedard thing happening at all. They land Scott, and they're still insisting on Bruce. Forget about them wanting Hamilton.

They still might want Votto, Bailey and change, but it's not looking good on this front.

I hope Wayne moves on to Oakland, even if for Blanton or Harden as opposed to Haren (if Bruce is the asking price).

Grab one of the Oakland guys, try to get Capuano, and call it an off season.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Who will blink first- MacPhail or Krivsky? I wonder if he's asking for Bruce straight up or as part of a package?

Andy Mac's probably asking for a Bruce package. I can't imagine the O's think that highly of Bruce. Bruce has tremendous value, but I just can't fathom he has straight up for Bedard value.

The more I think about Bedard vs Haren vs MacPhail vs Beane, I'd rather Krivsky work with Beane. At least they've had success in the past.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by wheels

Good grief.

I can't see the Bedard thing happening at all. They land Scott, and they're still insisting on Bruce. Forget about them wanting Hamilton.

They still might want Votto, Bailey and change, but it's not looking good on this front.

I hope Wayne moves on to Oakland, even if for Blanton or Harden as opposed to Haren (if Bruce is the asking price).

Grab one of the Oakland guys, try to get Capuano, and call it an off season.

Agree completely. I like Bedard even more than Haren, but I'm not trading Jay Bruce. Get Capuano first, then figure out which guy you want to pursue, and who you're willing to move to get him.

On another note, wouldn't it be something if they got both Prior and Harden? Maybe between the two of them they could equal one healthy player?

[RedsManRick]

I think MacPhail knows how difficult it's going to be turn this thing around and how he absolutely has to get the most for Bedard as possible. The demand for him won't go away, so I can see how he'd hold out. Frankly, I think Seattle is likely to give in before Krivsky -- based on the stupidity of the other moves they've made.

[LoganBuck]

Originally Posted by Benihana

On another note, wouldn't it be something if they got both Prior and Harden? Maybe between the two of them they could equal one healthy player?

They could alternate trips to the DL and the mound.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by LoganBuck

They could alternate trips to the DL and the mound.

That's exactly what I was thinking. We could have a platoon for our #2 starter.

[RedLegSuperStar]

I'd love to get Bedard... but if not i'd sign the following:

Josh Towers and Mark Prior

and then look to make a deal with either Cliff Lee or Chris Capuano.

This allows you to keep most of your prospects and a rotation of:

Harang
Arroyo
Capuano/Lee
Towers
Bailey/Cueto/Belisle

(Belisle would then be moved to pen if not in rotation)

And have Prior around June or July.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar

I'd love to get Bedard... but if not i'd sign the following:

Josh Towers and Mark Prior

and then look to make a deal with either Cliff Lee or Chris Capuano.

This allows you to keep most of your prospects and a rotation of:

Harang
Arroyo
Capuano/Lee
Towers
Bailey/Cueto/Belisle

(Belisle would then be moved to pen if not in rotation)

And have Prior around June or July.

Belisle will be in the rotation no matter what. He is primed to have a breakout season. I wouldn't mind signing Prior and Towers and trading for Capuano (who I would much prefer to Lee), particularly if Haren and Bedard are just too expensive. However, I do believe Krivsky will get either Haren or Bedard, because when he really gets determined to acquire something, (in this case a top shelf pitcher), he usually does it- even if he has to overpay. I'm just hoping he doesn't overpay by too much.

If I'm Wayne, I first offer Milwaukee a package of Stubbs, Freel, and Coffey for Chris Capuano. If they turn it down, I see what they'd want in return, and strongly consider it. Then, I offer one from each of the following groups for both Haren and Bedard, and see which GM bites first.

Group A: Bailey or Cueto
Group B: Hamilton or Votto
Group C: Any minor leaguer not named Frazier, Maloney, Wood, Stubbs, or anyone from Groups A or B.

If he gets Capuano and either Haren or Bedard, the Reds are set heading into next year. If one of the above deals doesn't work out, I wouldn't mind them signing Josh Towers and/or Mark Prior to fill out the rotation. I also wouldn't mind them taking a flier on Kevin Mench as a 1B platoon guy, but won't cry if they don't. Keppinger would be adequete in that role.

Either way, you have one of the following three rotations:

ROTATION 1
SP Harang
SP Bedard/Haren
SP Arroyo
SP Capuano
SP Belisle

ROTATION 2
SP Harang
SP Bedard/Haren
SP Arroyo
SP Belisle
SP Towers/Prior

ROTATION 3
SP Harang
SP Arroyo
SP Capuano
SP Belisle
SP Bailey/Towers/Prior

I'd be very content heading into 2008 with any of those 3 rotations.
Please take my advice Wayne.

[klw]

Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar

I'd love to get Bedard... but if not i'd sign the following:

Josh Towers and Mark Prior

and then look to make a deal with either Cliff Lee or Chris Capuano.

This allows you to keep most of your prospects and a rotation of:

Harang
Arroyo
Capuano/Lee
Towers
Bailey/Cueto/Belisle

(Belisle would then be moved to pen if not in rotation)

And have Prior around June or July.

Would you be putting Prior in the pen or is this assuming he starts on the DL?

[GoReds]

The O's are going to have to find a SS now that Tejada is gone. They don't have one in the pipeline and the Reds are a poor match to fill that hole. Seattle has a SS prospect, but the O's are going to have to do something here.

Let's go with:
Bailey/Cueto, Hamilton, Keppinger, Wood

for

Bedard and Cabrera

Bailey/Cueto and Hamilton should really be enough for Bedard, but tossing in a shortstop (has to be Keppinger due to age and salary) to cover the next year or two should help fill all of the holes the Orioles have. Wood balances out the trade when bringing back Cabrera.

Hamilton fills their CF need as they would love to get rid of/deal Payton.

Cabrera fills the #5 slot and relieves some of the pressure on Bailey/Cueto (whoever is not traded) to naturally develop into the rotation.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Belisle will be in the rotation no matter what. He is primed to have a breakout season. I wouldn't mind signing Prior and Towers and trading for Capuano (who I would much prefer to Lee), particularly if Haren and Bedard are just too expensive. However, I do believe Krivsky will get either Haren or Bedard, because when he really gets determined to acquire something, (in this case a top shelf pitcher), he usually does it- even if he has to overpay. I'm just hoping he doesn't overpay by too much.

Belisle could be just as valuable in the pen as he would be in the rotation. At one point in the season his starts were skipped. To say his rotation spot is solidified no matter what is pre-mature. I think if you add a control guy like Towers and trade for a Capuano or Lee and factor in Bailey and or Cueto (who some scouts say is further along then Bailey) where does that leave Belisle?

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by RedLegSuperStar

Belisle could be just as valuable in the pen as he would be in the rotation. At one point in the season his starts were skipped. To say his rotation spot is solidified no matter what is pre-mature. I think if you add a control guy like Towers and trade for a Capuano or Lee and factor in Bailey and or Cueto (who some scouts say is further along then Bailey) where does that leave Belisle?

If it came down to Belisle or Bailey in the rotation, I believe Bailey would start the year in Louisville. Belisle will be in the rotation in 2008.