Still Wanted: Pitching --Fay Cincinnati Enquirer 12/16

[Jpup]

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.d...60403/1082/SPT

My plan for today was to write something profound off the Mitchell Report and performance-enhancing drugs in baseball.

But really, what's left to say? Baseball had a huge drug problem. Big Bud Selig's going to mete out some punishment. It will cost some guys games and money. The guess here is Selig won't take the 2000 World Series trophy away from the Yankees even though they allegedly were using steroids like they were competing for Mr. Universe.

But I'm sick of the Mitchell Report talk, and I'm sure you are too.

So rather than pontificate on the ramifications, I'm going to write about what I think the Reds are going to do for the rest of the offseason.

They're going to continue to try to land a starting pitcher. That's Wayne Krivsky's mandate from ownership.

The only limitation is he has to do it without giving up Jay Bruce. So far, that's what has kept the Reds from completing a deal with Baltimore for left-hander Erik Bedard.

They continue to try to swing the deal without Bruce included. The hope is the Orioles will ease off their demand for Bruce and accept a package built around Homer Bailey.

Bedard was one of two pitchers not named Johan Santana who really could help the Reds this season.

The other was Dan Haren, who got traded from the Oakland A's to the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday.

The Reds had expressed interest in Haren but thought the price was too steep. The A's apparently wanted a package that included Johnny Cueto.

The Haren trade makes the competition for Bedard stiffer, particularly since it upped the ante for the National League West. The Los Angeles Dodgers reportedly are leading the race to land Bedard.

If the Dodgers land Bedard or the O's don't back off wanting Bruce in the deal, the Reds will have to turn elsewhere.

The Haren trade also might mean the A's are in full rebuilding mode. Oakland right-hander Joe Blanton would fit nicely into the Reds' rotation. He was 14-10 with a 3.95 ERA. He threw 230 innings and gave up only 16 home runs. He's from Kentucky, so he could be willing to sign long-term.

The drop-off after Bedard and Blanton is significant.

Cleveland's Cliff Lee is said to be available. He's coming off an injury-plagued season - 5-8, 6.29 ERA - but he's been good in the past. He was 46-24 the previous three seasons.

Jon Lieber is still available. He was 3-6 with a 4.93 ERA and missed significant time with a foot injury. Like Lee, he's been good in the past. Lieber was 17-13 in 2005. But at 38, you wonder if he can get back to being that guy.

None of the alternatives beyond Bedard and Blanton is very comforting. Bedard is ideal because he gives the Reds a left-hander.

My sense is the Reds will get something done. Going into the season with Matt Belisle as the No. 3 starter isn't a good plan. Belisle might develop into a consistent winner. But "might" is the operative word. The same can be said of Bailey.

The stakes in the NL Central got a little higher last week when the Houston Astros added Miguel Tejada (speaking of the Mitchell Report) and Jose Valverde, the major-league saves leader.

Reds ownership doesn't want three question marks in the rotation. Krivsky, in the final year of his contract, knows winning is essential to his job security.

That sounds like a recipe to get a deal done.

[Strikes Out Looking]

While I don't disagree with the need for a pitcher, I don't fear the Astros.

[red-in-la]

Well, I guess Fay made it clear what some have been saying all along. The thing standing between the Reds and a competitive rotation is Jay Bruce......

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by red-in-la

Well, I guess Fay made it clear what some have been saying all along. The thing standing between the Reds and a competitive rotation is Jay Bruce......

Probably. There can be only one most beautiful girl in the room.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by red-in-la

Well, I guess Fay made it clear what some have been saying all along. The thing standing between the Reds and a competitive rotation is Jay Bruce......

Not really. First, its an assumption by you that the Reds can't have a competitive rotation unless they acquire Bedard. Secondly, the also passed on a deal for Haren around Johnny Cueto and other peices.

[princeton]

Originally Posted by red-in-la

Well, I guess Fay made it clear what some have been saying all along......

you're plural?

sounds like Cueto is also in the way of your grinding axe

[Falls City Beer]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Not really. First, its an assumption by you that the Reds can't have a competitive rotation unless they acquire Bedard. Secondly, the also passed on a deal for Haren around Johnny Cueto and other peices.

The Reds won't have a competitive rotation without improving upon what they have. I find no dissonance in saying that.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

The Reds won't have a competitive rotation without improving upon what they have. I find no dissonance in saying that.

While they obviously need to add at least 1 starter, I don't think that they have to go acquire an ace type either to be competitive. I think that between Harang, Arroyo and Belisle I think we can look at about 600 IP of 4.30 ERA without any improvement at all out of any of those three guys.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Not really. First, its an assumption by you that the Reds can't have a competitive rotation unless they acquire Bedard. Secondly, the also passed on a deal for Haren around Johnny Cueto and other peices.

If the Reds don't get Bedard, they probably won't have a competitive rotation next year. I'm not sure Blanton would give them one, his road numbers aren't good. I watched Homer Bailey last year and the jury is definitely out on him for next year. Who's the front-of-the-rotation guy to join Harang and Arroyo. Matt Maloney? Matt Belisle?

Without Bedard, what is the road map to a division winning rotation next year?

[red-in-la]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

While they obviously need to add at least 1 starter, I don't think that they have to go acquire an ace type either to be competitive. I think that between Harang, Arroyo and Belisle I think we can look at about 600 IP of 4.30 ERA without any improvement at all out of any of those three guys.

Arroyo is a #3 starter. He had one of his streaks when he first joined the Reds, but his history is that he is a good pitcher, but not a front of the rotation one.

If the Reds don't get a number 2 or even an number 1, they will falter.

Princeton.....read the board, I am not the ONLY one saying that the Reds need to trade whatever is necessary to get a top flight starter.

[princeton]

Originally Posted by red-in-la

Princeton.....read the board, I am not the ONLY one saying that the Reds need to trade whatever is necessary to get a top flight starter.

no, you're the one saying that Bruce is standing in the way of something.

and I think that it's an outrageous statement, which is why I really admire it. I'll be interested in seeing how you feel about that in a couple of years.

[red-in-la]

Originally Posted by princeton

no, you're the one saying that Bruce is standing in the way of something.

and I think that it's an outrageous statement, which is why I really admire it. I'll be interested in seeing how you feel about that in a couple of years.

I am sorry if you don't like the way I put it Princeton.....

As baseball is going these days, a couple of years from now is not worth the worry.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

If the Reds don't get Bedard, they probably won't have a competitive rotation next year. I'm not sure Blanton would give them one, his road numbers aren't good. I watched Homer Bailey last year and the jury is definitely out on him for next year. Who's the solid guy to join Harang and Arroyo. Matt Maloney? Matt Belisle?

Without Bedard, what is the road map to a division winning rotation next year? I don't see it right now.

Few things, what exactly is having a competitive rotation? I guess it depends on your opinion of one. Still, last season Belisle, Arroyo and Harang combined for 620+ innings of about 4.30 ERA baseball. While I am not sold on Blanton being someone to slot between Harang and Arroyo, he slots good between Arroyo and Belisle. Lets just say that Blanton gives you 200 innings of 4.70 ERA baseball next year (given the smaller park, but faces a pitcher). If we can assume that Harang, Arroyo and Belisle dont improve one bit from last year and duplicate their exact numbers (although the difference between Belisle and Arroyo was absolutely nothing except luck) then we would be talking about a 1-4 that would be giving you this over the course of a season.
820 innings pitched and a 4.43 ERA. Given that I think we would be fine with a Bailey, Cueto or Maloney rounding out the rotation.

[red-in-la]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Few things, what exactly is having a competitive rotation? I guess it depends on your opinion of one. Still, last season Belisle, Arroyo and Harang combined for 620+ innings of about 4.30 ERA baseball. While I am not sold on Blanton being someone to slot between Harang and Arroyo, he slots good between Arroyo and Belisle. Lets just say that Blanton gives you 200 innings of 4.70 ERA baseball next year (given the smaller park, but faces a pitcher). If we can assume that Harang, Arroyo and Belisle dont improve one bit from last year and duplicate their exact numbers (although the difference between Belisle and Arroyo was absolutely nothing except luck) then we would be talking about a 1-4 that would be giving you this over the course of a season.
820 innings pitched and a 4.43 ERA. Given that I think we would be fine with a Bailey, Cueto or Maloney rounding out the rotation.

Didn't the Reds starting roation have the worst ERA in all of baseball last year?

[princeton]

Originally Posted by red-in-la

I am sorry if you don't like the way I put it Princeton.....

I disagree with you, but I actually like the way that you put it.