Will Baker Impede Progress?

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by icehole3

Ok, you want me to say it, you guys are very smart. You guys crunch the numbers better than anyone, youre all genius'. These numbers are the answers to everything. Hopper shouldnt been on the Reds last year he shouldnt even be playing professional ball, he's so lucky he should go buy some lottery tickets at Argosy.

I don't even crunch the numbers 1/2 as well as others on this board, but thanks for the false praise. But, I never said Hopper shouldn't be playing professional ball.

Hopper has a place on the Reds as a PR/4th OF/PH at best, nothing more. He's not a starting MLB OF, even for Kansas City or Baltimore or Tampa Bay or Pittsburgh. And he sure as heck shouldn't be a starting OF for the Cincinnati Reds.

In my book, he was a career minor leaguer who made the most of his opportunity at the MLB level, but we shouldn't count on lightning to keep striking. A guy like Norris Hopper will always be one of those last guys cut in ST or the 25th man on a roster. That's his value.

[KronoRed]

But High...he plays the game the right way!! he runs out to his spot in the outfield, he HUSTLES

[WMR]

MARTY LOVES HIM.

That counts for ALOT.

[icehole3]

if someone beats him out in spring training his arse should go to the bench, but to just put him on the bench because someone else has the potential is nuts.

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by icehole3

if someone beats him out in spring training his arse should go to the bench, but to just put him on the bench because someone else has the potential is nuts.

I think Jay Bruce is sitting on the bench because of Norris Hopper is nuts, if Hopper "beats him out" in spring training or not.

[icehole3]

Bruce will not be sitting on any bench, if he is deemed not ready he goes to AAA. Why rush the guy, then his confidence is shattered, then every number cruncher in Redszone will be saying Bruce has a terrible OBP or OBM or whatever you call it.

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by icehole3

Bruce will not be sitting on any bench, if he is deemed not ready he goes to AAA. Why rush the guy, then his confidence is shattered, then every number cruncher in Redszone will be saying Bruce has a terrible OBP or OBM or whatever you call it.

[wheels]

Originally Posted by icehole3

Bruce will not be sitting on any bench, if he is deemed not ready he goes to AAA. Why rush the guy, then his confidence is shattered, then every number cruncher in Redszone will be saying Bruce has a terrible OBP or OBM or whatever you call it.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by icehole3

Bruce will not be sitting on any bench, if he is deemed not ready he goes to AAA. Why rush the guy, then his confidence is shattered, then every number cruncher in Redszone will be saying Bruce has a terrible OBP or OBM or whatever you call it.

I don't think we "number crunchers" will be too dismayed if Bruce starts off slowly in MLB. Every young hitter goes through ups and downs, and I for one will reserve judgment until Bruce is given a significant amount of ML at-bats. Also, FWIW, I don't consider myself a stat-head at all; I'm just open to well-reasoned arguments that help to explain to me how the game works.

I'm not sure where you're getting all of this pent up antagonism towards people who are trying to explain their arguments to you. Quite a few of us have now offered our opinions backed by what we see as convincing evidence. No one has ever said you weren't entitled to your own view. However, we have yet to see you back up your argument that Hopper is a good leadoff hitter with anything more compelling than a "harumph."

Look, I'd really like it if Hopper was one of those late-bloomer types who could post a .371 OBP out of the leadoff position next year. Frankly, it would make me a lot less worried about the lineup sans Josh Hamilton. However, as others have pointed out now multiple times as well, there is no evidence to suggest that Hopper can maintain that level of performance.

[remdog]

Originally Posted by RedEye

......I'm just open to well-reasoned arguments that help to explain to me how the game works.....
backed by what we see as convincing evidence.

....there is no evidence to suggest that Hopper can maintain that level of performance.

'See' might be the operable word here. What we see and percive with our owns eyes can be either accepted or dismissed; it depends upon how much you trust your own judgement and experience. 'Evidence' is an extension of this depending upon what you choose to believe and what you disregard.

In the case of Hopper I don't think anyone is argueing (including icehole) that he is the perfect leadoff hitter. He may or may not maintain that level of performance (i.e., he could get better) but, he may be the best we have given our current starting eight.

While it's true that Norris' OBP was hit driven, the fact that his game is a little unorthodox helps him IMO. If defenses don't make changes he will continue to do what he has been doing and probably be successful. If defenses makes changes, say by drawing in the infield or making shifts in their alignment, then the very fact that Hopper doesn't hit a lot of fly balls will help him find the expanded holes in the 'D'.

Should he be a 4th OFer? Ideally, but if Bruce doesn't win the OF job in ST then I think I can live with Hopper for a month or two. I think Bruce will respond well and, sometime before the All Star break, become a regualr in the Cincinnati OF. I just hope that he doesn't gain that position due to an injury to Jr. or Dunn.

Rem

[remdog]

Originally Posted by Boss-Hog

I know I'm in the minority, but I won't be that upset if we start the season with Freel/Hopper in CF while Bruce gets another month or so at AAA.

I'm right there with ya' Boss. As I said before, I see the model for Bruce being the way the Astros brought along Hunter Pence last year. Give Bruce about 30 games to tear up AAA and bring him to Cincinnati so raring to go that he rips off his shirt and finally reveals that big red 'S' on his chest.

Rem

[icehole3]

Originally Posted by Raisor

my kids do say I never smile

[icehole3]

Originally Posted by remdog

'See' might be the operable word here. What we see and percive with our owns eyes can be either accepted or dismissed; it depends upon how much you trust your own judgement and experience. 'Evidence' is an extension of this depending upon what you choose to believe and what you disregard.

In the case of Hopper I don't think anyone is argueing (including icehole) that he is the perfect leadoff hitter. He may or may not maintain that level of performance (i.e., he could get better) but, he may be the best we have given our current starting eight.

While it's true that Norris' OBP was hit driven, the fact that his game is a little unorthodox helps him IMO. If defenses don't make changes he will continue to do what he has been doing and probably be successful. If defenses makes changes, say by drawing in the infield or making shifts in their alignment, then the very fact that Hopper doesn't hit a lot of fly balls will help him find the expanded holes in the 'D'.

Should he be a 4th OFer? Ideally, but if Bruce doesn't win the OF job in ST then I think I can live with Hopper for a month or two. I think Bruce will respond well and, sometime before the All Star break, become a regualr in the Cincinnati OF. I just hope that he doesn't gain that position due to an injury to Jr. or Dunn.

Rem

what he said

[Ron Madden]

Originally Posted by Raisor

that would make a great avatar for you Icehole3.

[RedEye]

'See' might be the operable word here. What we see and percive with our owns eyes can be either accepted or dismissed; it depends upon how much you trust your own judgement and experience. 'Evidence' is an extension of this depending upon what you choose to believe and what you disregard.

Agreed, and thanks very much for your well-reasoned rejoinder. However, I would respond to you with a few more questions. If there were other evidence available about something you cared about, wouldn't you be curious what it was and what more it might (or might not) tell you? Don't you think that making a decision about something important (and by gosh, the Reds are important!) should be informed by the best available tools--or at least by a mix of different information that incorporates good old fashioned game-watching and more in-depth research?

In the case of Hopper I don't think anyone is arguing (including icehole) that he is the perfect leadoff hitter. He may or may not maintain that level of performance (i.e., he could get better) but, he may be the best we have given our current starting eight.

Well, I'm not sure what a "perfect" leadoff hitter would even be (a young Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines or Kenny Lofton?), and I didn't take anyone to be arguing that in the first place. In fact, I quoted icehole as saying that Hopper would be an "okay leadoff hitter" in my earlier post. What I am suggesting is that there is abundant evidence to suggest that Hopper will not continue that performance. That claim has been backed up nicely by a bunch of folks who work harder than I do to make good posts.

While it's true that Norris' OBP was hit driven, the fact that his game is a little unorthodox helps him IMO. If defenses don't make changes he will continue to do what he has been doing and probably be successful. If defenses makes changes, say by drawing in the infield or making shifts in their alignment, then the very fact that Hopper doesn't hit a lot of fly balls will help him find the expanded holes in the 'D'.

Hmmm. I don't know how unorthodox Hopper actually is. He seems to me like a lot of rather undisciplined, slap hitters who surface from time to time on ML rosters. Heck, when they are younger and better in the field, a lot of 'em get starting jobs for a long, long time--and then make millions of dollars more than they should because old school GM's and managers just decide to ignore statistical measures and go by what they "see" on the field. One of those managers, to our chagrin, has been Dusty Baker (see Womack, Tony; Pierre, Juan; Patterson, Corey...) There is also a real danger with these average-driven hitters because when they slump, they add almost nothing to the lineup at all.

Should he be a 4th OFer? Ideally, but if Bruce doesn't win the OF job in ST then I think I can live with Hopper for a month or two. I think Bruce will respond well and, sometime before the All Star break, become a regualr in the Cincinnati OF. I just hope that he doesn't gain that position due to an injury to Jr. or Dunn.

I suppose I'm okay with Hopper as a temporary place-holder. However, I worry that Baker's predelection for the type of player I've described above could easily lead to him getting way more at-bats than he should in 2008. And, in all probability, those at-bats will be taken away from a younger, much more productive player who could be out there helping the Reds do what we all hope they will do: win games.