What does the Jocketty hire mean for the Farm System?

[Shaknb8k]

Im interested as to how this hire will effect the minor leagues. What is his player development history broken down between position players and pitchers?

I dont see there being any way for Jocketty and Krivsky to remain here unless Jocketty takes over and Bob Cast. takes a step back away from everything which if Im not mistaking I believe he has said he plans to actually do that.

This is what will sell me on this move. I personally believe the only way for the Reds or any team in baseball in '08 to win is by the farm system. When the Red Sox and Yankees are holding onto their prospects that means something.

So whats Jocketty's track record on developing players?

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by 757690

Braden Looper
Adam Kennedy
J.D. Drew
Daric Barton
Colby Rasmus
Rick Ankeil
Xavier Nady (did not sign)
Jack Wilson
Chris Duncan
Coco Crisp
Albert Pujols
Yadier Molina
Danny Haren
Skip Schumaker
Brad Thompson
Brendan Ryan
Anthony Reyes

All Drafted by Jocketty form 1996 to 2005. 17 major leagues who will play or who have played major roles for their team. That is two more then the Twins have drafted, and they are considered to be one of the best drafting organizations. And it is close to twice as many as the Reds have drafted.

To say "The Cards have produced nothing, and Jockety is the souce of that with his horrible drafting and development," is flat out wrong.

Yes, he does favor veterans, but he does not have a history, except for the Mulder trade, of trading quality prospects for veterans. And Mulder helped them win the division and win 100 games in the one year that he was healthy. If Mulder stays healthy, it is a good trade for everyone.

Jocketty has a history of developing a strong game plan for each season, and following through on it. That is why the Cardinals were in contention 8 out of the 12 years he was GM, and they had a ten year period of only one losing season.

from the SunDeck

[camisadelgolf]

Is Jocketty really that much better at drafting talent than Jim Bowden was? Here's an overly-general comparison of Jocketty from '96-'05 and Bowden from '93-'02:

Scott Sullivan		Chris Duncan
Paul Bako		Skip Schumaker
C.J. Nitkowski		Brendan Ryan
Aaron Boone		Adam Kennedy
Brett Tomko		Brad Thompson
Jason LaRue		Yadier Molina
Ray King		Coco Crisp
Scott Williamson	Braden Looper
Austin Kearns		J.D. Drew
Adam Dunn		Albert Pujols
B.J. Ryan		Danny Haren
Todd Coffey		Jack Wilson
Ben Broussard		Rick Ankiel
Dustin Moseley		Anthony Reyes
Joey Votto		Daric Barton
Chris Denorfia		Colby Rasmus
Jeremy Sowers (DNS)	Xavier Nady (DNS)

It may also be worth keeping in mind that Jocketty had a bigger budget to work with. (Thanks, Marge.)

[BPhillips4]

Personally, I don't believe it will change the course much at all that it has been on under Wayne's control. It is still Krivsky's team, with just another voice, albeit a knowledgable and influential voice, in his ear.

[MikeS21]

The one thing I hope DOESN'T happen is that Jocketty convinces Cast and Kriv to mortgage the future in order to secure a starting pitcher.

I want to see what we have in Cueto, Votto, and Bruce before we start dealing them away. I know he's just a prospect, but if Cueto has a mid-90's fastball, a better-than-average slider, and a Mario Soto-like change-up, it seems that we would prefer 6-7 years of him than a short-term rental of a pitcher who really isn't as good of talent.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by MikeS21

The one thing I hope DOESN'T happen is that Jocketty convinces Cast and Kriv to mortgage the future in order to secure a starting pitcher.

I want to see what we have in Cueto, Votto, and Bruce before we start dealing them away. I know he's just a prospect, but if Cueto has a mid-90's fastball, a better-than-average slider, and a Mario Soto-like change-up, it seems that we would prefer 6-7 years of him than a short-term rental of a pitcher who really isn't as good of talent.

Amen. The Reds should be able to get a mid-rotation starter for a package built around EdE, Maloney and Stubbs. Add throw ins like Coutlangus, Francisco or Valaika if need be, but I wouldn't deal Bailey, Cueto, Bruce and only Votto if absolutely necessary. If that isn't good enough, I'd get a stop gap like Leiber for a year or two with the idea of flipping him when the kids are ready. Let other teams get held up for prospects in exchange for rent-a-players.

[HokieRed]

Why would somebody trade a mid-rotation starter, current replacement value at least 11 million per year, for EdE, a double AA pitcher, and an outfielder who has yet to show he can hit at high A ball? Almost no team that thinks it has any chance to contend can afford to trade even a mid-rotation starter. They're too expensive to replace and you can't be in a pennant race without them. This is why you must have a steady stream of them coming out every year from your minor leagues--then you have what you need and you can hold up other teams if you're lucky enough to have a surplus.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

Why would somebody trade a mid-rotation starter, current replacement value at least 11 million per year, for EdE, a double AA pitcher, and an outfielder who has yet to show he can hit at high A ball? Almost no team that thinks it has any chance to contend can afford to trade even a mid-rotation starter. They're too expensive to replace and you can't be in a pennant race without them. This is why you must have a steady stream of them coming out every year from your minor leagues--then you have what you need and you can hold up other teams if you're lucky enough to have a surplus.

What MOR starter are we talking about? As for a trade for Edwin, Maloney (AAA pitcher) and a Drew Stubbs package to land a guy like that.... its a very solid start. It depends what team we are talking about. Teams looking to rebuild can take a solid step forward with say a package of Edwin, Maloney, Stubbs, Dorn and Rosales for a MOR starter.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by MikeS21

The one thing I hope DOESN'T happen is that Jocketty convinces Cast and Kriv to mortgage the future in order to secure a starting pitcher.

I want to see what we have in Cueto, Votto, and Bruce before we start dealing them away. I know he's just a prospect, but if Cueto has a mid-90's fastball, a better-than-average slider, and a Mario Soto-like change-up, it seems that we would prefer 6-7 years of him than a short-term rental of a pitcher who really isn't as good of talent.

I think a number of us here are saying this same thing. I don't ever recall having this many pitching prospects at once. It may mean disaster for this year, but I'd love to see the Reds for once have a pretty good pitching staff - something we haven't had since the early 1960's (not to take anything away from the BRM staff, but they were a solid group of decent starters - I'd have loved to have seen the Maloney, O'Toole, Purkey, Jay, etc. staff with the BRM club!).

[MikeS21]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

I think a number of us here are saying this same thing. I don't ever recall having this many pitching prospects at once. It may mean disaster for this year, but I'd love to see the Reds for once have a pretty good pitching staff - something we haven't had since the early 1960's (not to take anything away from the BRM staff, but they were a solid group of decent starters - I'd have loved to have seen the Maloney, O'Toole, Purkey, Jay, etc. staff with the BRM club!).

I'm really looking forward to seeing Cueto.

I'm not as enamored by Homer Bailey as others around here are. I suppose my reservations about Bailey stem towards my feelings about his work ethic. It all goes back to spring training a couple years ago when Mario Soto was teaching his change-up to the minor league pitchers. Cueto was his star pupil. From what I read, Bailey never sought ought Soto for help. As I see it, Bailey's greatest weakness is his change. If he would get serious and allow himself to be coached by someone who knows how to throw a GREAT change and knows how to teach it, Bailey's success would skyrocket at the major league level.

To me, if you want to improve the pitching staff, hire a plane to fly in Mario Soto, and have him spend about two weeks alone with Bailey, Cueto, and Belisle. Take Bailey's 95+ mph fastball and 12-6 curveball, and add in a Mario Soto change-up, and the kid will become the whiz kid everyone hopes he will be.

The question is, will Jocketty persuade the Reds to tutor Bailey?

[gedred69]

Originally Posted by MikeS21

I'm really looking forward to seeing Cueto.

I'm not as enamored by Homer Bailey as others around here are. I suppose my reservations about Bailey stem towards my feelings about his work ethic. It all goes back to spring training a couple years ago when Mario Soto was teaching his change-up to the minor league pitchers. Cueto was his star pupil. From what I read, Bailey never sought ought Soto for help. As I see it, Bailey's greatest weakness is his change. If he would get serious and allow himself to be coached by someone who knows how to throw a GREAT change and knows how to teach it, Bailey's success would skyrocket at the major league level.

To me, if you want to improve the pitching staff, hire a plane to fly in Mario Soto, and have him spend about two weeks alone with Bailey, Cueto, and Belisle. Take Bailey's 95+ mph fastball and 12-6 curveball, and add in a Mario Soto change-up, and the kid will become the whiz kid everyone hopes he will be.

The question is, will Jocketty persuade the Reds to tutor Bailey?

I pretty much agree. I have posted this before but again, what I saw that I didn't care for in Bailey last year, was the game he pitched where the wheels fell off, as he was heading down the wrong road, Ross tried to tell him something, and Bailey turned his back. That reminds me of the young "phenom" Tomko, who the reds gave up on as un-coachable. Tomko never amounted to more than a journeyman.

[HokieRed]

Doug, I'm not down on EE, Maloney, or Stubbs. I like all three. I just think there are actually very few teams that are going to trade a middle of the rotation starter, especially before the season, because starting pitching is so expensive relative to other values in the current market. For example, Seattle just signed a middle of the rotation starter in Silva--are they going to send him to us for EE, Maloney, and Stubbs? That looks like fair value, but for the Mariners to do that--or any team in a similar situation--is to say to their fans, "forget this year." Most fans--I'm the exception here--are pretty frantic to win right now; we've got a whole lost of posters on these boards who are willing to give away a great deal of value--way too much,in my opinion--for Erik Bedard. Why? Because they want some believable chance to win this year. Almost every team has to persuade their fans they can compete, and it's very hard to do so by giving up anybody from your rotation. Case in point: the Reds just had to give up a very promising young player, possible all-star centerfielder, for a guy who's done almost nothing to establish himself as any kind of major league starter. I happen to like that deal for the Reds, but what it illustrates is the tremendously high price a team has to pay for starting pitching.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

Doug, I'm not down on EE, Maloney, or Stubbs. I like all three. I just think there are actually very few teams that are going to trade a middle of the rotation starter, especially before the season, because starting pitching is so expensive relative to other values in the current market. For example, Seattle just signed a middle of the rotation starter in Silva--are they going to send him to us for EE, Maloney, and Stubbs? That looks like fair value, but for the Mariners to do that--or any team in a similar situation--is to say to their fans, "forget this year." Most fans--I'm the exception here--are pretty frantic to win right now; we've got a whole lost of posters on these boards who are willing to give away a great deal of value--way too much,in my opinion--for Erik Bedard. Why? Because they want some believable chance to win this year. Almost every team has to persuade their fans they can compete, and it's very hard to do so by giving up anybody from your rotation. Case in point: the Reds just had to give up a very promising young player, possible all-star centerfielder, for a guy who's done almost nothing to establish himself as any kind of major league starter. I happen to like that deal for the Reds, but what it illustrates is the tremendously high price a team has to pay for starting pitching.

Seattle wouldn't of course, There are buyers and sellers and you can't confuse what it would take to get a buyer's guy versus a seller's guy.

EdE is a player who may not be an MVP candidate but can be a cornerstone bat at position in the middle of the defensive spectrum. That is pretty valuable. Maloney is a potential back of the rotation starter. Stubbs is a highly rated, toolsy OF with plate discipline to boot. A team looking to dump a guy and begin the rebuild might be interested in that. Maybe you need to add a Lutz, A Valaika, a Pelland or a Francisco etc.

It won't get you Bedard, Santana or Haren (though Haren didn't go for much more IMO) but they aren't the only pitchers out there.

The Giants would probably be interested. You wouldn''t get Lincecum or Cain, but you could probably get Lowry or more preferably IMO Kevin Correia plus something (Sanchez??). It may get you in the conversation on Joe Blanton. A team like Pittsburgh might give-up a Gorzellany for a cut below replacement like Maloney and an infusion of talent at other spots.

You may need to take on a contract to make it happen. Maybe you get a Giants pitcher if you take Ray Durham. You could probably pay less for Blanton if you would take Chavez. I just think there are other ways to aquire a pitcher to stabilize the rotation without tearing down what took 20 years to rebuild.

[HokieRed]

The problem is what you are describing is a very limited number of teams and some pitchers you'd hardly want anyway--Lowry or Correia, for instance. Do you really want to give up Maloney for a cut-above guy like Gorzellany and also send on a bunch of players to strengthen a team in your division? I don't see any advantage in any of the deals proposed; I sure don't want to pay Chavez's salary plus give up a boatload of talent to get Blanton. The problem remains that any middle of the rotation guy good enough to really help us--or practically any other team--is also going to be so valuable to his own team, and so nearly irreplaceable, that they're not going to deal him. I continue to think the best course for the Reds is to stick with the talented young kids we have and perhaps to sign one of the free agents if you can get him on a short contract--no more than 2 years.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

The problem is what you are describing is a very limited number of teams and some pitchers you'd hardly want anyway--Lowry or Correia, for instance. Do you really want to give up Maloney for a cut-above guy like Gorzellany and also send on a bunch of players to strengthen a team in your division? I don't see any advantage in any of the deals proposed; I sure don't want to pay Chavez's salary plus give up a boatload of talent to get Blanton. The problem remains that any middle of the rotation guy good enough to really help us--or practically any other team--is also going to be so valuable to his own team, and so nearly irreplaceable, that they're not going to deal him. I continue to think the best course for the Reds is to stick with the talented young kids we have and perhaps to sign one of the free agents if you can get him on a short contract--no more than 2 years.

I agree that there are only a few teams out there where this package works, but that's true of all trades. Trades occur by taking what you have to sell and matching it to a buyer that has what you need, I think a Blanton, Gorzellany or Correia would help the Reds immediately and are the types of pitchers that could be mid rotation starters for the Reds for many years. I agree that I don't really want Lowry but he would be an upgrade in comparison to what the team has and could probably be flipped for more prospects down the road. Correia is the exact type to target - a number 3 hiding in a number 5 role that could be had without selling the farm. If the Reds could get Correia and Sanchez for that package while hanging on to Bailey and Cueto, the pitching in Cincy would be set-up for years. I prefer that route to a one or two year rental. I also want to keep the kids. The idea is to get some guys who are undervalued who can be added to what the team already has. If it doesn't happen then sure sign Leiber to a two year deal and flip him for more prospects when the kids are ready. But signing Leiber won't get the Reds in the play-offs in 2008. It does allow Bailey and Cueto to stay in AAA and finish thier development.