Taking stock of the minor leaguers heading into 2008

[princeton]

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

Sounds like a pretty good quick'n dirty test. I'd be interested in seeing more big leaguers too if you have anything handy, especially broken down into regular starters vs. bench fodder.

start here, and select a particular year then select Billings. It only goes back to 1992, I think

http://minors.baseball-reference.com...st.cgi?lid=PIO

this method can't tell you who will hit in the majors, because you'll get a lot of non-players that OPS pretty high in Billings. But it predicts who'll never hit in the majors, which is pretty valuable information.

maybe the reason that some of these guys never hit was due to poor developers-- batters had to at least be able to hit at a certain level coming into the organization, because we couldn't teach well. So if Stubbs becomes a hitter, it'll be a positive sign that things have really improved on the developmental front.

[princeton]

Originally Posted by Benihana

(you do know there is a sizeable difference between an 8th round pick and a top 15 pick?)

I guess that you didn't mean top 15 rounds

ED's first season isn't much different than DM's 2007 season. Similarities, in fact, are rather eerie. Same BA, same slugging percentage, same BB:K ratio. Davis walked more, struck out more. Today's Northwest League has older players than the Florida rookie league but I couldn't tell you how it was in 1980. ED was a little younger than DM, and probably had experienced a lower level of competition (other than Daryl Strawberry, of course)

two interesting notes: first, Reds decided to move ED to a new position after his horrible year. He went from SS to OFer even though he hit like a bad SS. Gutsy move. second, Reds reportedly considered cutting Davis after 1980, in spite of his speed, even in the Go-Go-'80's.

I assume that there are no thoughts of cutting DM or switching his position...

speaking of which, I've often wondered if it's a better developmental approach for a good defensive catcher to concentrate on advancing his hitting by working for a year or two strictly as a first baseman. I imagine that being a good defensive catcher is like riding a bike-- you can go back to it. Mesoraco, in fact, didn't catch during his junior year, but was rated a fine defender during his senior season. I got this idea while watching Dane Sardinha hit.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by Benihana

And what rules are those? In the last 10 years, there have been 17 catchers selected in the first/sandwich round. Do you know how many of those catchers repeated rookie league (including advanced rookie league) in their second professional season? Zero.

Of those 17 catchers selected in the first round, do you know how many earned more than a cup of coffee in the big leagues? Two (Joe Mauer and Jarrod Saltalamacchia)

So I ask you again, please tell me what rules you are referring to? If Mesoraco remains in Rookie ball all season long, and doesn't improve his hitting dramatically, his outlook will be pretty grim.

Just playing devil's advocate here as I don't have anything to back up my thought except some degree of logic. But I wonder how many of those 1st rd catcher's were rushed and that had as much or more to do with their demise? I mean perhaps f.o.'s ought to change their approach regarding the handling of certain players, mainly 1st rounders. There is a ton of pressure on these kids already and perhaps this is exactly the wrong approach in terms of getting the best out of your investment.

I mean it may seem a tad unlikely but it could make all the difference to a kid that young and far away from home. And with an already high profile amongst his peers, to have that added pressure of performing to the tune of a different standard could be too much.

[Edd Roush]

I really agree with doug's point about Derek Jeter. I read his autobiography a while back and he wrote about how terrified he was that first year just getting out high school.

Obviously, some top 15 high school position players hit the ground running, but others do in fact struggle, like Jeter and Mesoraco.

Let's hope Mesoraco's natural abilities shine through and he uses last season as a lesson and he is working his butt off this off-season to be ready for next year. I am a perrenial optimist, so I see no reason why Mesoraco will not improve next year. I really think he will get the job done.

[Betterread]

Originally Posted by princeton

I guess that you didn't mean top 15 rounds

ED's first season isn't much different than DM's 2007 season. Similarities, in fact, are rather eerie. Same BA, same slugging percentage, same BB:K ratio. Davis walked more, struck out more. Today's Northwest League has older players than the Florida rookie league but I couldn't tell you how it was in 1980. ED was a little younger than DM, and probably had experienced a lower level of competition (other than Daryl Strawberry, of course)

two interesting notes: first, Reds decided to move ED to a new position after his horrible year. He went from SS to OFer even though he hit like a bad SS. Gutsy move. second, Reds reportedly considered cutting Davis after 1980, in spite of his speed, even in the Go-Go-'80's.

I assume that there are no thoughts of cutting DM or switching his position...

speaking of which, I've often wondered if it's a better developmental approach for a good defensive catcher to concentrate on advancing his hitting by working for a year or two strictly as a first baseman. I imagine that being a good defensive catcher is like riding a bike-- you can go back to it. Mesoraco, in fact, didn't catch during his junior year, but was rated a fine defender during his senior season. I got this idea while watching Dane Sardinha hit.

Good point about ED and his start to the pros. I was going to say that ED was 18 during his second pro year - he was a young draftee.
I agree with you about catchers. But my opinion is that it not easy but such a hard position (other than for Joe Mauer) to master that I wonder if it commands so much physical effort and mental concentration on the defensive aspect that it deleteriously affects the offense of young catchers.