NFL Picks: Wild Card Weekend

[Edskin]

www.edkleese.blogspot.com

Last Week: 12-4
Season: 166-90
Record Picking Redskins Games: 10-6
Against the Spread: 29-33-2
Lock of the Week (ATS): 10-6

Final Regular Season Analysis: I think I had a pretty good year, but a few disastrous weeks made my overall record look pretty pedestrian. I did finish 20 games better than I did last year (146-110) and slightly above my wins mark from 2005 (163), so I guess I’m headed in the right direction.

I had a hard time getting a good read on several teams this year (Giants, Bucs, and Bengals all come to mind), while I had a good read from the start on some other teams (Cowboys, Packers, Chiefs, Patriots). My pre-season pick of Patriots over Cowboys in the Super Bowl looks pretty good at this point as well.

My little experiment with picking games against the spread yielded some interesting results. My goal was to choose 4 games each week and see how I would have fared at the end of the season had I bet them all. Clearly, with my finishing mark of 29-33-2, I would have lost money. Not a ton, but a loss nonetheless. However, each week, I also chose one game that I would have bet above all others (my “lock of the week”). In those games, I did pretty well, finishing at 10-6. So perhaps that is the key right there—pick the ONE game you like the most each week instead of picking several.

Overall, my analysis of my 2007 regular season picks is that I was steady, but unspectacular.

Now, on to the playoffs.

Washington at Seattle: I’ve never hidden my fandom in this blog, and I certainly can’t start now. I will 100% admit that my predictions and opinions of the Redskins are definitely skewed at this point due to the improbable and emotional run they have been on for the past month. One thing is not up for debate—the team is playing extremely well in all facets of the game. In addition to their on-field execution, the team is clearly rallying behind Joe Gibbs and their fallen teammate. Things will change for the Redskins this week. The Seahawks will be the toughest team they’ve played since turning their season around, and the Seahawks total dominance at Qwest Field is well documented. Only the Patriots have more home wins over the past five seasons. As a Redskins fan, my biggest fear is Matt Hasslebeck. He has been widely underrated for several years now both by the media and the average NFL fan. Hasslebeck is the type of QB that can beat you even if you have a perfect gameplan and good execution. The rest of the Seahawks skill position players are middling at best, but they do have good depth at both RB and WR, which makes it difficult to key on one specific area.

Defensively, the Seahawks have been very solid, but they have also gone unchallenged most of the year due to Seattle’s soft schedule. Todd Collins has been magnificent in leading the Redskins the past four games—is his performance legitimate or is the coach about to turn into a pumpkin? Of all the wild card games, I’ve had the hardest time getting a read on this one. Hasslebeck and the Seahawks are more experienced in this situation and homefield is a bigger advantage than usual when analyzing any game played in Seattle. But I grew up on Joe Gibbs. I know about his impeccable playoff record and how his teams get markedly better this time of the year. Two years ago this weekend, the Redskins went into Tampa Bay and won a playoff game on heart, desire, and preparation. I just don’t see them going home this early. Call it a homer pick, but that’s my take.

Redskins 23, Seahawks 20

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh: Jacksonville is certainly the “hotter” team at this point, and they have become a popular pick to win this game and make some noise in the AFC. But if I were a Jags fan, I’d just hate the fact that my team was trying to win in Pittsburgh for the second time in less than a month. In many ways, Jacksonville manhandled the Steelers in week 15, and Pittsburgh has looked average at best ever since. As a matter of fact, the Steelers have been generally uninspiring since mid-season. But I’m a weenie. I am sticking by the book here and taking the home team. It just feels unnatural to pick the Steelers to lose at home in early January.

Steelers 27, Jaguars 23

New York Giants at Tampa Bay: On one hand, I can see Eli Manning getting rattled and bombing badly this week against the tough Bucs defense. On the other hand, I can’t ignore the Giants stellar 7-1 road record this year. Manning appears to be more comfortable when playing away from the glare of his hometown fans and media. The Bucs are even more of a mystery. They sort of won the lackluster AFC South by default this year and they rested many of their players and slogged to two losses over the past two weeks against the 49ers and Panthers. I understand not wanting to get key players injured, but I don’t like the way the Bucs are entering the playoffs.

Having said that, I simply do not trust Manning (or Tom Coughlin) to win under these tense playoff circumstances. I am also troubled by the Giants run defense, which has been lousy the past several weeks and could be exploited by Tampa Bay. I think this will be the lowest scoring of the four games this weekend, and possibly the closest.

Bucs 17, Giants 16

Tennessee at San Diego: I was really pulling for the Colts last Sunday night because I thought Cleveland would have made for a much more intriguing match up headed into San Diego. I respect the Titans’ grit and their solid 10-6 record in a tough division. However, the Titans may be the least explosive 10-6 team I’ve ever seen, and I think you need at least a little explosion to keep up with the Chargers. I don’t like the Chargers chances in the coming weeks, but this is a good spot for them.

Chargers 28, Titans 13

[TC81190]

I like your picks, except for the Jags and Steelers. I don't think Ben can beat them with his arm, and Najeh Davenport is definitely not the answer against the Jags' D. Meanwhile, Fred Taylor and MJD will have a field day against Pittsburgh's defense, which has been hampered with injuries, as of late.

[RedsManRick]

Seahawks at home against Todd Collins? Yes please.

Steelers have been mediocre and hurt and don't have their #1 offensive weapon. Jags run all over them.

Giants played New England quite well. TB won the weakest division in football with a 9-7 record and has lost 3 of 4, all to sub .500 teams. Giants easily.

When Kerry Collins gives your team their best chance to win, it's really no chance at all. Chargers in a romp.

[RichRed]

FWIW, Sagarin has the Seahawks with the easiest schedule in the league while the Skins had the 2nd toughest. Still, I give Seattle the edge playing at home. Seahawks, 27-23.

Sure hope I'm wrong though.

[HBP]

I don't really see why Tennessee over San Diego would be that big of an upset. Norv Turner is their coach and the Titans lost to them in overtime in December.

[deltachi8]

Ben can beat the Jags with his arm...problem is, he can;t beat them with his arm while on his back. The Steelers are down to their 3rd string Left Tackle which probably won't work well.

I think it will end up being a high scoring affair, but the Jags will win the game with constant pressure on Ben.

[TC81190]

Originally Posted by deltachi8

Ben can beat the Jags with his arm...problem is, he can;t beat them with his arm while on his back. The Steelers are down to their 3rd string Left Tackle which probably won't work well.

I think it will end up being a high scoring affair, but the Jags will win the game with constant pressure on Ben.

That's no knock on Ben, but I really like Jacksonville's defense, and they'll be bringing the heat all day, like you said.

[Cyclone792]

Chargers over Titans
Jaguars over Steelers
Giants over Buccaneers
Seahawks over Redskins

The Seattle/Washington game is a virtual coin flip for me, but I eventually leaned toward Seattle due to the homefield advantage.

[deltachi8]

Originally Posted by TC81190

That's no knock on Ben, but I really like Jacksonville's defense, and they'll be bringing the heat all day, like you said.

I agree. I actually think going to a spread, no huddle quick read and throw might be a way for the Steelers to attack the jags. Either way, I think the Jags are the better team and should win the game.

[jmac]

Originally Posted by HBP

I don't really see why Tennessee over San Diego would be that big of an upset. Norv Turner is their coach and the Titans lost to them in overtime in December.

I reallly think SD will roll this time. Titans will probably not be able to score enough and actually they are "in" because Colts had division locked up. I was telling someone today I believe Browns-SD would have been more entertaining.
I like Jeff Fisher as a coach but they play that "grind it out" type football which I dont really care for.