Tom Tango's Clutch Project

[JinAZ]

I going to cross-post this on my blog (which isn't letting me do so right now, for some reason), but I thought it'd be interesting to bring it up here as well because there's a bigger/more diverse audience:
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Tom Tango is currently in the preparatory phase of starting a really interesting project, which he's calling The Clutch Project.

Basically, he's going to ask fans of each team to vote on this question:

If your team is at bat and faces crucial situation in a ballgame, who do you most want to be hitting? In other words, who's your #1 clutch guy?

His plan will be to take the top players from this vote from each team--the clutch guys, the ones who are the best guys to have at the plate in a crucial situation--and compare their 2008 performances in their top-50 crucial situations to the performances of the best overall hitters from each team (probably according to his projections) in their the top-50 crucial situations. The prediction is that if clutchiness exists, clutch hitters should do better in their top-50 crucial situations than the control group of excellent, but not "clutch" players. All decisions on who is to be the top clutchy and top "control" individuals would be made prior to the start of the season, and then we can follow their progress throughout the season.

Tango's still in the preparatory phase, so we'll have to wait before voting. But I wanted to get a feel for who Reds fans might select.

So: in the case of the Reds, the top hitter (control group) would almost certainly be Adam Dunn. But I'm wondering who you folks would consider to be the top clutch guy on the Reds, i.e. who is the guy you'd most want to be at bat in a crucial situation?

Edit: You can choose Dunn if you like. If there's a tie for first, Tango will go with the #2 clutch and #2 control guys (or #3 guys if the #2's are a tie as well), leaving the #1 guy out of the competition entirely.
-j

[tripleaaaron]

Ken Griffey Jr. for sure, no question about it, it is not even a contest

[kyjobu]

I agree. It would have to be Griffey.
Followed by Edwin and with the amount of contact they make -- Hatteburg and Keppinger.

[JinAZ]

I think I'll take a tally of responses, just for fun. To keep things simple, I'm only going to count your #1 guy, so please make that clear even if you want to add a few other guys to your list.

So, here's the tally as of now:

Griffey: 2
Everyone else: 0

-j

[Bip Roberts]

Not Adam Dunn if there is a RISP thats for sure

[Carolina Red]

1. Griffey
2. Phillips
3. Hatteburg
4. Keppinger
5. Encarnacion
6. Gonzalez
7. Freel
8. Hopper
9. Votto
10. Arroyo
11. Castro
12. Dunn

[SMcGavin]

Interesting premise, depends on situation though. With the bases empty and down one in the 9th - I'd take Dunn without a doubt. Two out, man on 3rd, tie game in the 9th - it'd be somebody else. Probably Hatte vs. a RHP and I'm not even sure vs. a LHP.

Originally Posted by Carolina Red

1. Griffey
2. Phillips
3. Hatteburg
4. Keppinger
5. Encarnacion
6. Gonzalez
7. Freel
8. Hopper
9. Votto
10. Arroyo
11. Castro
12. Dunn

Intelligent response.

[mlbfan30]

I know what's going to happen in the study, and here is my prediction...

The Clutch guy will have a slight increase in BA, slight decrease in OBP, and slight decrease in SLG.
The best overall hitter will see a slight decrease in AVG, slight increase OBP, and slight increase in SLG.

I don't think "clutch" exists, but pitching around batters do exist. The better hitter will get pitched around more often in high leverage situations, thus increasing OBP. He'll have less to hit, and his AVG will suffer very very sightly, but when pitcher makes a mistake, it'll be a big mistake.

The clutch guy is looking for a hit. The reason why "clutchiness" exists is because people remember hits, not walks. The clutch guy will get more hits, but probably more singles because he's looking to make contact. He won't BB as much and his OBP will go down. Also his SLG is going to decrease because he's looking to make contact.

This is all assuming that the clutch guy who's picked isn't already the best hitter picked, and the clutch guy is a lesser hitter in general. Picking Pujols as a clutch guy doesn't really apply to my theory, since he's already the best hitter.

[mlbfan30]

Also my clutch guy is EE, while my best hitter is Dunn

[Bip Roberts]

I refuse to call anyone with a .250 avg a good hitter.

[mlbfan30]

Originally Posted by Bip Roberts

I refuse to call anyone with a .250 avg a good hitter.

Hitter doesn't mean BA. Hitter means going into the box and taking your plate appearance. Dunn is the guy most likely to not make an out (OBP). And also the guy who has the most power. That is a great combination to have. BB's are not as good as singles, but they are better than outs.

You never said who the Reds best hitter is.....

[Bip Roberts]

Originally Posted by mlbfan30

Hitter doesn't mean BA. Hitter means going into the box and taking your plate appearance. Dunn is the guy most likely to not make an out (OBP). And also the guy who has the most power. That is a great combination to have. BB's are not as good as singles, but they are better than outs.

You never said who the Reds best hitter is.....

He might get out the least but hes far from the best at hitting.

The best hitter on the team last year was probably Hatteberg. Doesnt mean hes the best batter but maybe im just picky with my usage of certain terms.

Id say the best hitter would be able to go up to the plate more likely to make contact with no matter what the pitch or where it was.


Edit actually the more i thought about it I would say Keppinger just based off the sample size we saw

[JinAZ]

Updated tally of Clutch votes:
Griffey: 3
Encarnacion: 1

SMcGavin, while I completely agree that the situation matters when thinking about crucial situations, the game here is to try to pick the single best clutch hitter on the team.

Another way to think about it--if you look at each Reds hitter's 50 most crucial PA's next season (i.e. biggest potential influence on the game), who do you think will do the best in that sample?

Edit: Bip Roberts, are you voting for Keppinger as your clutch hitter?
-j

[*BaseClogger*]

gimme Adam Dunn, becuase in a "clutch" situation I want the guy least likely to make an out and extend the inning. That man is Adam Dunn...

[TC81190]

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

gimme Adam Dunn, becuase in a "clutch" situation I want the guy least likely to make an out and extend the inning. That man is Adam Dunn...

I want the man that's going to drive in the run. Give me...Encarnacion, Phillips, or Griffey, in that order.