Baseball Prospects Reds Top 11 Prospects

[TC81190]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

I would rank Cueto as a five-star along with Bailey, Bruce, and Votto. Todd Frazier would also be a four-star in my book.

Same.

[Screwball]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Fun Fact: In the first three innings of Triple-A games, Bruce went 5-for-55 (.091) without a home run. Afterwards, he hit .394 with 11 home runs in 132 at-bats.

I found this to be very interesting. Not only does he have a boatload of talent, but it seems Jay has the ability to make in-game adjustments (very) successfully. That should serve him well when he faces ML pitchers he's never seen before.

[Matt700wlw]

So, will Bruce have a Hamilton-esque spring and completely knock our socks off?

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by Matt700wlw

So, will Bruce have a Hamilton-esque spring and completely knock our socks off?

I just hope that the bar hasn't already been set too high for Bruce. As a rookie, if he OPS's North of .800, that'll do for me. If he plays in 85+ games, I'll be happy with that as well. I just hope we're being realistic from the onset about Jay Bruce.

[gedred69]

I continue to be perplexed by a lack of respect for Dorn after his ascension last year, proving his shoulder has totally healed.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by gedred69

I continue to be perplexed by a lack of respect for Dorn after his ascension last year, proving his shoulder has totally healed.

I agree. All the guy has done is hit. I could see him going .900+ OPS in AA this year and jumping up to the top 5 on next year's rankings.

[OnBaseMachine]

I decided to go ahead and buy a subscription to BP after reading the Jay Bruce writeup. It seems they are pretty high on Edinson Volquez and Billy Bray. Goldstein says Volquez should fit in fine in the Reds rotation and says he still has star potential. He also lists Bray as the Reds 8th best player under age 25 and notes that he already is effective against lefties, but also has a chance at being a setup man down the road.

And he is still very high on Homer Bailey. To paraphrase: Bailey is one the few pitchers in baseball with two plus-plus pitches in addition to an average changeup with good deception. Ceiling is a true #1 starter.

He also likes Pedro Viola, stating he has a power arm and could develop into a valuable bullpen arm.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by gedred69

I continue to be perplexed by a lack of respect for Dorn after his ascension last year, proving his shoulder has totally healed.

Maybe those that do the ranking think he needs to do it in consecutive years?

That's the only thing I can think of.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

I decided to go ahead and buy a subscription to BP after reading the Jay Bruce writeup. It seems they are pretty high on Edinson Volquez and Billy Bray. Goldstein says Volquez should fit in fine in the Reds rotation and says he still has star potential. He also lists Bray as the Reds 8th best player under age 25 and notes that he already is effective against lefties, but also has a chance at being a setup man down the road.

And he is still very high on Homer Bailey. To paraphrase: Bailey is one the few pitchers in baseball with two plus-plus pitches in addition to an average changeup with good deception. Ceiling is a true #1 starter.

He also likes Pedro Viola, stating he has a power arm and could develop into a valuable bullpen arm.

I think Goldstein is pretty wise. So many of these ranking websites are too easily influenced by the most recent stats with little or no differentiation due to other factors. Bailey is a 21 year old kid who had some bad outings in the big leagues at a young age.So what? Real baseball men and good evaluators can tell the difference between that and real decline. Many seem to be saying that Bailey has lost a lot of value since last spring, but I don't believe it for a minute. The rush to dump him by many is kind of amazing to me.

I think the same phenomenon has elevated Cueto to levels beyond realistic to fill "the void" left by Bailey's "fall." Cueto is rated as a 4 star prospect with a projection to become a solid number 3 and that is very good. The Reds have been searching high and low in vain to acquire a solid number 3. Goldstein rightfully did not elevate him above Bailey at this point. Another season with Bailey struggling and Cueto excelling could change things, but flip flopping them now is a knee jerk reaction IMO.

[*BaseClogger*]

If Cueto's projects as a #3, doesn't that mean he only projects to have a 4.50 ERA since that is league average? That seems kinda low to me...

[Superdude]

If Cueto's projects as a #3, doesn't that mean he only projects to have a 4.50 ERA since that is league average?

A 4.50 ERA would ideally come out of the #4-5 spot. I honestly don't think anyone quite knows how to project Cueto yet. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think this guy just judged Cueto and then dropped him back on the theoretical rotation due to height. His stuff, command, and performance have all been very ace like, so I don't see why we should rule out anything for Cueto yet. Even Goldstein said he could be a bit more than a #3, so my guess is that Cueto is a bit of a wait and see type of guy.

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

If Cueto's projects as a #3, doesn't that mean he only projects to have a 4.50 ERA since that is league average? That seems kinda low to me...

I think people have become too enamored with placing #'s on starting pitchers. A #1-5 pitcher really depends on each individual team rather than a broader ranking. If Cueto becomes a very good pitcher but there are two better pitchers above him then that is a very good thing. But if Cueto doesn't devlop into what we all hope he does but he is the 3rd best pitcher on the staff then that is a bad thing.

[11larkin11]

Originally Posted by gedred69

I continue to be perplexed by a lack of respect for Dorn after his ascension last year, proving his shoulder has totally healed.

I'm guessing its probably his abysmal lefty-righty splits. I know he hit .100 against lefties in AA, I think it was quite bad in A+ too.