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Old 02-02-2008, 10:36 AM   #1
westofyou
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PECOTA 08
BP's Pecota came out yesterday.. the same day as the Strat's Card Release (don't think that wasn't planned).

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=742

Lot's of stuff there

Here are the projected guys with over 40 in VORP


Pujols Albert
Wright David
Rodriguez Alex
Braun Ryan
Ramirez Hanley
Jones Chipper
Ortiz David
Utley Chase
Fielder Prince
Teixeira Mark
Cabrera Miguel
Reyes Jose
Beltran Carlos
Rollins Jimmy
Howard Ryan
Berkman Lance
Zimmerman Ryan
Ramirez Aramis

And here are the Reds



Code:
Last		First	BA	OBP	SLG	MLVR	EqBA	EqOBP	EqSLG	EqA	VORP
Dunn		Adam	.261	.388	.549	.208	.257	.384	.540	.306	35.8
Encarnacion	Edwin	.285	.356	.493	.109	.282	.352	.486	.282	30.2
Bruce		Jay	.269	.336	.512	.085	.265	.332	.503	.277	29.9
Votto		Joey	.278	.357	.494	.103	.275	.353	.486	.283	24.6
Keppinger	Jeff	.305	.364	.418	.036	.301	.360	.411	.267	23.1
Phillips	Brandon	.274	.325	.444	-.019	.271	.322	.437	.260	22.4
Griffey		Ken	.268	.350	.480	.065	.264	.346	.472	.276	16.5
Rosales		Adam	.254	.328	.449	-.023	.250	.325	.442	.260	11.4
Gonzalez	Alex	.261	.315	.424	-.075	.257	.312	.417	.247	11.3
Hatteberg	Scott	.285	.368	.440	.057	.281	.364	.433	.274	10.8
Dorn		Daniel	.259	.333	.455	-.003	.256	.329	.448	.263	9.8
Phillips	Andy	.264	.334	.438	-.019	.261	.331	.431	.259	9.0
Janish		Paul	.250	.323	.372	-.138	.247	.319	.366	.239	8.3
Valentin	Javier	.269	.333	.424	-.036	.266	.330	.417	.255	7.1
Frazier		Todd	.242	.310	.383	-.152	.239	.306	.376	.235	6.3
Ross		David	.235	.310	.448	-.071	.232	.307	.441	.251	6.1
Hanigan		Ryan	.257	.349	.357	-.106	.254	.345	.351	.245	5.9
Lopez		Pedro	.261	.311	.380	-.139	.258	.308	.374	.234	5.5
Dickerson	Chris	.240	.319	.408	-.104	.237	.315	.402	.249	4.3
Freel		Ryan	.261	.334	.371	-.111	.257	.330	.365	.247	3.6
Gil		Jerry	.253	.293	.484	-.036	.250	.290	.477	.255	3.1
Hopper		Norris	.288	.334	.342	-.133	.284	.330	.337	.236	0.4
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Old 02-02-2008, 10:42 AM   #2
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Re: PECOTA 08
Are there any rookies with a higher VORP than Jay Bruce?
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Old 02-02-2008, 10:58 AM   #3
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Re: PECOTA 08
No Castro???
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Old 02-02-2008, 11:25 AM   #4
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Re: PECOTA 08
Nice hypothetical season out of Dorn.
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Old 02-02-2008, 11:54 AM   #5
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Re: PECOTA 08
Say Jay Bruce is projected to be the Reds 3rd most valuable hitter next year and in actuality really close to being second? Nice.
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Old 02-02-2008, 12:07 PM   #6
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Re: PECOTA 08
Ummmmm..Adam Rosales?
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Old 02-02-2008, 12:14 PM   #7
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Ummmmm..Adam Rosales?
What about him?
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Old 02-02-2008, 12:19 PM   #8
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Re: PECOTA 08
If Rosales could do that, I say bring him up, start him at SS, and deal with the E's. Of course, PECOTA just loves them some minor leaguers.
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Old 02-02-2008, 12:22 PM   #9
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If Rosales could do that, I say bring him up, start him at SS, and deal with the E's. Of course, PECOTA just loves them some minor leaguers.
Rosales probably could do that, but I don't think he would come close to cutting it defensively at shortstop. 3B, 1B and maybe even 2B would be alright, but shortstop isn't his position.
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Old 02-02-2008, 12:45 PM   #10
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Re: PECOTA 08
Dickerson ranked above Hopper...?

How does Brian Anderson rank... I'm still thinking that might be a deal that gets done.
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Old 02-02-2008, 01:23 PM   #11
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Re: PECOTA 08
WOY- Any idea of Griffey Jr.'s rookie season projection(s) (not actual) at that time from BP compared to Jay Bruce and his predicted results of today? I'm intrigued by Rick Sweet's comments about Junior and Jay being the same "animal" at this point in their careers.

A comparative line between the two would be interesting to see.

Thanks for the listed projections.
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Old 02-02-2008, 01:30 PM   #12
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Re: PECOTA 08
That is some nice love for the Reds young guys and look at the love for Keppinger. Pecota predicts a big drop for Griffey no?
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Old 02-02-2008, 01:31 PM   #13
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Re: PECOTA 08
Quote:
Originally Posted by hippie07 View Post
Dickerson ranked above Hopper...?

How does Brian Anderson rank... I'm still thinking that might be a deal that gets done.
http://www.tboblogs.com/index.php/sports/related/C142/

Quote:
The Rays also signed well-traveled left-hander Brian Anderson to a minor-league deal with an invitation to spring training. Anderson, 35, hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2005, when he made six generally unsuccessful starts for the Royals
Quote:
Any idea of Griffey Jr.'s rookie season projection(s) (not actual) at that time from BP compared to Jay Bruce and his predicted results of today?
BP didn't exist then and neither did PECOTA until 2003 or 2004
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Old 02-02-2008, 01:38 PM   #14
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Re: PECOTA 08
Wrong Brian Anderson. The OF is .240/.305/.395 with a VORP of -.5.
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Old 02-02-2008, 01:38 PM   #15
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Re: PECOTA 08
WOY, he's referring to the White Sox's Brian Anderson per the Anderson thread (that thread was about the CF, NOT the Pitcher).
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