Homer Bailey Appreciation Thread

[Triples]

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

If I remember he still wasn't striking out many before the injuries-perhaps you can check into that for me.

As for my opinion, I still prefer Cueto because I am a conservative guy and I think Cueto is as close to a sure thing as pitching prospects come. I'm concerned with Bailey's ability to develope a third pitch and durability-he still isn't ready for a MLB workload. I'd like to see him spend the first half of the season dominating in AAA with his curve and changeup. Then, bring him up while he's hot. Another benefit of AAA is that it will help control his innings and pitch counts. By throwing out last season, Homer Bailey is just a raw AA pitching prospect that is not ready...

Fastball, curve, cutter and changeup...he already has 4; as of the end of last year only the changeup was still in the development stages.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by jojo

His fastball and curve truly are major plus major league quality.

His fastball was good, but nowhere near as dominant as the scouting reports indicated.

I'm going to hope that was due to injury, because I saw way too much 91-93 action for a guy that was touted as hitting high-90s routinely.

[cincrazy]

He's 21. I don't think any of us can make a judgment one way or the other about what he'll be.

Here's hoping for the best.... we could certainly use some good fortune

[pedro]

yup, and at 91-93 you need to be a lot better PITCHER than you do at 95+ if you plan on having sustained success.

He can do it, sure, but it's not a lock that he will either.

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

His fastball was good, but nowhere near as dominant as the scouting reports indicated.

I'm going to hope that was due to injury, because I saw way too much 91-93 action for a guy that was touted as hitting high-90s routinely.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I don't know how what I said can help you come to that conclusion. I would take Z this year, but after that I am not so sure.

Based on "it's not worth the time going into", I assumed that you liked Homer now better than Zambrano now.

I apologize if that was not the case.

What would make you take Bailey over Zambrano in the future?

Zambrano, to me, seems to be our generation's Nolan Ryan. Dominating and electric stuff one start, walks a minivan full of guys the next. Definitely a candidate to lead a league in Ks and BBs at the same time.

That being said, I hope Bailey ends up being 75% of either of them.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

Based on "it's not worth the time going into", I assumed that you liked Homer now better than Zambrano now.

I apologize if that was not the case.

What would make you take Bailey over Zambrano in the future?

Zambrano, to me, seems to be our generation's Nolan Ryan. Dominating and electric stuff one start, walks a minivan full of guys the next. Definitely a candidate to lead a league in Ks and BBs at the same time.

That being said, I hope Bailey ends up being 75% of either of them.

Bailey has better control than Z does right now and I imagine it gets better. He just needs to get some more innings on his arm. Bailey has two plus pitches already and his cutter is pretty good while his change up is what we all think it is.... a work in progress.

[WMR]

Does anyone know what Homer's fastball is likely to "settle in at" long-term?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS

Does anyone know what Homer's fastball is likely to "settle in at" long-term?

92-95 while getting 96-98 at times.

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by Triples

Fastball, curve, cutter and changeup...he already has 4; as of the end of last year only the changeup was still in the development stages.

you know what I meant. I haven't read too many reports talking about how Bailey needs to start dominating with his cutter...

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

92-95 while getting 96-98 at times.

Cueto throws 96, and Bailey throws 98.

I've heard it all now....

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

Cueto throws 96, and Bailey throws 98.

I've heard it all now....

Tell me how many times you have seen Homer Bailey pitch? You seem to be an expert on how hard he throws, so you must have seen him throw a lot over the past few years. What brand radar gun do you have? When was the last time you had it checked for accuracy?

How about Cueto.... how many times have you seen him pitch? Cueto has thrown 96 before. Plenty of people have seen it. People with their own radar guns. Does he throw it often? Absolutely not. Has he thrown that hard before? Absolutely.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Tell me how many times you have seen Homer Bailey pitch? You seem to be an expert on how hard he throws, so you must have seen him throw a lot over the past few years. What brand radar gun do you have? When was the last time you had it checked for accuracy?

How about Cueto.... how many times have you seen him pitch? Cueto has thrown 96 before. Plenty of people have seen it. People with their own radar guns. Does he throw it often? Absolutely not. Has he thrown that hard before? Absolutely.

I saw every MLB start of Bailey, and 2 of his AAA starts.

I've never seen a full game of Cueto, only a couple innings here and there. IMO, he throws harder/more velocity/etc than Bailey, but I've only seen Cueto top out at 94-95.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Highlifeman21

I saw every MLB start of Bailey, and 2 of his AAA starts.

I've never seen a full game of Cueto, only a couple innings here and there. IMO, he throws harder/more velocity/etc than Bailey, but I've only seen Cueto top out at 94-95.

So combined you have seen 11.5 games of them out of 137 games. You also saw Homer Bailey throw during a season in which he had two seperate stints to the DL with groin injuries.

For what its worth though on Bailey 'not throwing 98', On 9/25/2007 Bailey had 2 pitches register on the pitchf/x system at 97.77 and 97.55 MPH. I have a feeling that he has probably thrown just a little bit harder sometime in his career than he happened to on that day. Its amazing that when a guy has a healthy groin he can all of a sudden throw harder. That same start he had 19 fastballs at or above 95 MPH.

[jojo]

Bailey legitimately works between 92 and 96 mph during a game. He averaged 93 mph on the 246 fastballs captured by the pitch f/x system in his major league debut. That velocity coupled with the movement he gets makes his fastball a bonafide plus pitch.

[Highlifeman21]

Originally Posted by jojo

Bailey legitimately works between 92 and 96 mph during a game. He averaged 93 mph on the 246 fastballs captured by the pitch f/x system in his major league debut. That velocity coupled with the movement he gets makes his fastball a bonafide plus pitch.

This concurs with what I've seen of Bailey. The top end of his velocity is 95-96, but he consistently works between 92-94. His 93 AVG echoes that. He seems to be most effective in the 92-94 range. When he tries to dial it up a little more, then he seems to be a little more erratic. He might have the ability to throw a pitch once in a blue moon above 96, but that's not where he's going to make a living.

From what I've seen of Cueto, his FB seems to be a little more heavy that Bailey's. Obviously I'm no scout, but Cueto seems to use his FB more effectively and at better opportunities than Bailey, who still seems to be in love with his FB. Bailey's FB is a plus pitch, I just wish he used it better and more effectively.

Once he finds/gains some command and control, that will be the impact hurdle for Bailey. He might actually turn out to be a TOR guy if he's able to develop some command and control.


And I stand corrected, looks like Bailey can dial it up a little more for 1 pitch than Cueto.