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02-16-2008, 02:31 PM
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#1 |
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Five Tool Fool
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 16,545
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Pecota Projects the NL Central....
Pecota predicts the '08 Reds to finish in third at 79-83. They're projected to be 10 back of the Cubs and 8 back of the Brew crew. Pecota thinks the Mets are the cream of the NL.
Pecota's projection for the NL central isn't too far out of line with a recent Diamond Mind projection that was published on the Replacement Level Yankees weblog. These two projections suggest the Reds still have quite a bit of work to do (i.e. they still need to find 10 additional wins-100 runs-somewhere). Comments, thoughts, arguments?
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"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner |
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02-16-2008, 02:36 PM
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WOOOOO!!!
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Midland, MI
Posts: 6,075
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Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....
I hope you don't mind I comment on something outside of the NL Central-did you see the AL West!? The A's second, Rangers third, and Mariners FOURTH! Way to go A's, and as for the Mariners, I guess Bedard won't put them over the hump. Alwell, these are just projections. We all know how that silly projection for the White Sox (72-90) went last year
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"On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me." |
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02-16-2008, 02:36 PM
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#3 | |
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GR8NESS
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Lexington, Kentucky
Posts: 16,910
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Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....
Are you trying to give jojo a coronary, baseclogger?
The M's are his team.
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02-16-2008, 02:40 PM
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#4 | |
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Five Tool Fool
Join Date: Nov 2006
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Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....
Quote:
A lot of people might also by surprised by the Rays as well. Not me though. Just bought a Tampa jersey. 
__________________
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner |
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02-16-2008, 02:43 PM
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WOOOOO!!!
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Midland, MI
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Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....
Quote:
__________________
"On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me." |
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02-16-2008, 02:44 PM
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#6 | |
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Five Tool Fool
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 16,545
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Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....
Quote:
__________________
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner |
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02-16-2008, 02:46 PM
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#7 |
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WOOOOO!!!
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Midland, MI
Posts: 6,075
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Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....
What did PECOTA project for the Reds last season?
And are there percentiles for like what our ceiling is as far as wins and what our floor is?
__________________
"On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me." |
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02-16-2008, 02:48 PM
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#8 | |
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Five Tool Fool
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 16,545
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Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....
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The Ms need a miracle, the Reds just need lots of things to go right and my guilty pleasure in the AL east just needs to not be eliminated before labor day for a moral victory.
__________________
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner |
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02-16-2008, 02:48 PM
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GR8NESS
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Lexington, Kentucky
Posts: 16,910
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Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....
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02-16-2008, 02:48 PM
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: New York, NY
Posts: 8,625
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Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....
I think that's a pretty fair projection, overall.
I'm not sure though I see the Brew Crew winning 87 games, though I do think they'll finish ahead of the Reds. Am I alone here? And Jojo, since you're a big stat guy, if the Reds somehow landed Blanton, how many wins would he be worth to the team? I'm assuming not enough...but just for the sake of curiosity. |
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02-16-2008, 03:03 PM
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#11 |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Bristol, just around the corner from ESPN
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Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....
I know this is a .500 team at best, so 79 wins is a fair estimate.
IMO, they are only a 75 win team. Still too many pitching questions marks, and the offense isn't as good as advertised. |
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02-16-2008, 03:05 PM
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Five Tool Fool
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 16,545
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Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....
Quote:
Quote:
__________________
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner |
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02-16-2008, 03:05 PM
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#13 |
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Haunted by walks
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 6,294
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Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....
The Brewers always seem to do better in the preseason polls than they finish up with.
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02-16-2008, 03:08 PM
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WOOOOO!!!
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Midland, MI
Posts: 6,075
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Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....
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Looks like Wayne has done a pretty good job turning this thing around. Assuming that confidence interval is close to how PECOTA feels about the Reds, that gives us no hope at the NL Central. I would think the Reds would have one of the larger intervals because of all of the young, volatile pitching...
__________________
"On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me." |
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02-16-2008, 03:09 PM
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WOOOOO!!!
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Midland, MI
Posts: 6,075
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Re: Pecota Projects the NL Central....
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what's that... Michigan #5!? 
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"On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me." Last edited by *BaseClogger*; 02-16-2008 at 03:16 PM. |
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