Will Carroll on the Reds

[Screwball]

This morning Alan Cutler had an interview with Baseball Prospectus' Will Carroll on 1530. Here's a run-down of what he had to say:

-He expects a good year for Griffey and Dunn due in large part to Dusty Baker (DB). He says DB gets his vets to play well, especially in the first couple of years.

-He's worried about DB ruining our young arms. He says DB is not a great strategic manager, but can really handle a clubhouse.

-Doesn't think much of Fogg (and he was trying to be nice)

-Cueto's not quite ready, and Homer shouldn't be in Dusty's hands for a full season

-Would've liked to see the Reds make a deal for Joe Blanton. He said he would've given up Bailey/Cueto AND Joey Votto. He said, "I don't think much of Bailey at all." He said he thought this because Bailey can't/won't succeed in GABP and because he's with the Reds organization. He also said, "Putting a young pitcher in the hands of DB is tantamount to suicide."

-He went on to say that Votto is solid but no superstar. Also, he said Hatteberg will start over him no matter what Votto does in ST because of DB. Along those same lines, he said Freel will get the nod in CF over Jay Bruce because of DB. He said, "DB always wants the veteran over the young guy", and then invoked the obligatory Neifi Perez example.

-He liked the Hamilton for Volquez deal. Hamilton was a risk and they were trading from a position of depth for one without depth. He said the Reds got a "good young arm" out of the deal.

-Says he mainly covers injuries for Baseball Prospectus and DB has helped him keep a job.

-On Wayne Krivsky's reputation around baseball: there's quite a dichotomy. He came out on fire and looked like a genius in his first few months with the Phillips and Arroyo moves, but really got made a fool in the Nationals trade. He said WK needs to win this year to keep his job due to Jocketty looming.

-Predicts NL Central will be close. No team will run away with it. He expects the Reds to be in the mix but the Brewers and Cubs are the class. He also expects the Cards to be good because of Albert Pujols (I guess you only need one good player on your team).

[Matt700wlw]

"I don't think much of Bailey at all." He said he thought this because Bailey can't/won't succeed in GABP and because he's with the Reds organization.

Will Carroll is FCB. Mystery solved. :

[*BaseClogger*]

Says he mainly covers injuries for Baseball Prospectus and DB has helped him keep a job.

[RANDY IN INDY]

Just another talking head.

[Spring~Fields]

It is a mystery to me how one can assess young players with such affirmity before the players have had more than just a cup of coffee and just barely get their feet wet, yet one can claim they are this or that or not etc.

[Benihana]

I agree with most of this, although I doubt Hatteberg will start over Votto. I'm not a huge Homer guy, but I don't know if he's as worthless as Caroll implies.

[Hoosier Red]

Who did Neiffi Perez hold back?
The most egregious examples of DB playing veterans over youngins was Karros over Choi and Neiffi over...

Before citing the required "Dusty always plays veterans" I'd like someone to point out a veteran who played more than a true prospect.

Karros over Choi wasn't exactly holding back the second coming of Lou Gehrig.
Jeremy Burnitz playing over Jason Dubois when Dubois wasn't exactly Babe Ruth.

On the other hand;
Ronny Cedeno, Corey Patterson, Aramis Ramirez all played despite the dreaded sin of being younger than 25.

And no one has ever accused Dusty of holding back young arms.(That's right, he only destroys all the young guys who pitch for him, except Zambrano.)
It should be noted that Prior and Wood each pitched fewer innings in 2003(in a pennant race) than in 2002(not in a pennant race.)

[lollipopcurve]

All the recycled received wisdom on Baker. My guess is that Baker has learned from past mistakes.

But the soundbytes will take a while to change -- makes the byter sound good, after all.

[traderumor]

Its very simple. Those who made up their mind about the culpability of Baker with Prior and Wood are not going to change that opinion until he proves otherwise in this opportunity. I think the case is overstated, but it is easy enough to say and hard to prove otherwise. Unfortunately, he is running into "have you stopped beating your wife" territory with that particular issue and will have to prove himself to make soundbyters shut up about it.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by Matt700wlw

Will Carroll is FCB. Mystery solved. :

I figured he was writing under some name here....

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

All the recycled received wisdom on Baker. My guess is that Baker has learned from past mistakes.

But the soundbytes will take a while to change -- makes the byter sound good, after all.

Couldn't have said it better myself

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

All the recycled received wisdom on Baker. My guess is that Baker has learned from past mistakes.

But the soundbytes will take a while to change -- makes the byter sound good, after all.

I would hope that Baker has learned from his mistakes. It would be hard for me to stomach a front office who brings in a guy and pays him top dollar to make the same mistakes he made in Chicago. But I guess if those same mistakes result in the reds landing in the world series I am all for them.

[Screwball]

Originally Posted by Hoosier Red

Who did Neiffi Perez hold back?
The most egregious examples of DB playing veterans over youngins was Karros over Choi and Neiffi over...

Exactly what I thought. It was funny, when discussing DB playing Hatt over Votto during the interview Carroll said, "Well he played Neifi Perez instead of...(slight pause)... anybody else who could hold a bat." It was a pretty good save, but also pretty obvious he had no idea who Neifi was holding back.

I'll be shocked if the roster - and the injuries to the young guns - plays out how Carroll says it will.

[westofyou]

Will is a nice guy, and a disgruntled Cubs fan, he has his grudges... and Dusty did manage in another city for a longer span then Chicago... something that always seems to be forgotten.

[RedsManRick]

I'm as critical of Dusty as the next guy, but the "he only plays vets" argument doesn't hold much water when you dig a little and see he's never been given much young talent to hold back. Simply stick with the pitcher mismanagement, in game decision making, and lineup construction for now. Otherwise, he'll give us plenty of actual decisions to complain about soon enough.