Who do you got as the Reds starting rotation for opening day?

[icehole3]

Originally Posted by membengal

And, yes, there has been a silly rush to find and magnify flaws with Bailey. From Fay, to McCoy, to certain people on this board.

don forget the Cowboy, I agree with Matt as well, everybody calm down and lets wait until monday before we send Homer to AAA.

my starting 5 going on if you base it on pure competition.

Harang
Arroyo
Cueto
Bailey
Volquez/Fogg

Bullpen
Belisle-long relief
Affeldt-lefty specialist
Merker
Burton
Weathers
Cordero

[WMR]

There's absolutely no way Belisle's not in the starting rotation. NONE.

[Spring~Fields]

I like this but I don't think WK will

Harang
Arroyo
Cueto
Volquez
Bailey

[red-in-la]

Harang
Arroyo
Belisle
Fogg
Affeldt

I predict that it will take 3 turns through the rotation before one of these 5 will have a 27.00 ERA and the parade of rotation members will start. I fully expect the young arms to be part of this parade.

[Patrick Bateman]

I really don't see what Bailey has done to earn a rotation spot. He had major control problems last season, in both AAA and the majors. His major league stint showed how vastly important that factor is to a pitcher's success. Additionally, Bailey has exhibited the same problems so far in spring training.

When a guy continues to show the exact same problems, bumping him up is not the answer. Until he proves that he has improved his control enough to the point that he can dominate AAA hitters, I really don't see why he should be on the major league squad. Clearly, he wont be helping the Reds with this problem, and additionally, he still has lots to prove in AAA, so it wont be a waste of time/development for Bailey to pitch in AAA.

At this point Belisle has shown some major league ability.... as in he belongs in the majors. Bailey has yet to show that, and until that happens Beilse IMO, more than deserves a rotation spot. He had a very underrated 2007 season, and he deserves a spot, considering the alternatives are a raw Bailey, or veteran junk.

To me, the top 3 spots are locked up in Harang, Arroyo, and Belisle. Probably Fogg too, even though Volquez and Cueto are probably showing enough to indicate that they are superior options right now. In my mind Bailey is not even an option yet. We have 7 guys who are likely to outpitch him (or at least the same level) as a starter right now. Bailey needs some AAA time to show that he can displace the likes of Fogg, Affeldt, and eventually Belisle. If Bailey can't outpitch Fogg, then he may as well develop in AAA rather than hurting the Reds at the major league level.

I figure one of Cueto/Volquez makes the rotation with the other going to Fogg. The main question is whether the Reds are ready to introduce 2 of the young guys at the same time and ditch Fogg. The problem is if Fogg doesn't make the rotation right now, he may not have a bullpen slot either and as such would be out of the organziation. If one of the young guys show they aren't ready, then the Reds risk the chance of losing the veteran placeholder. So Fogg will probably make the team, and be displaced only when the Reds feel confident enough in the young arms that they can stick for the long haul.

[reds44]

I think Affeldt will be best used coming out of the pen. It's where he has pitched best in his career and the other lefties we might have in the pen are Bray (hurt), Stanton (old, bad), Merker (old, bad) and Coutlangus (bad, at least in spring). We need a decent lefty pitching out of the pen.

[icehole3]

if Merker's back up to 90 on his FB he could be your guy. I believe Belisle even though he did OK last year is pitching for a new manager and if he gets smacked around start after start in ST, Dusty will move him to the bullpen. Dusty loves the press and the press wants to get into Dusty's head and I believe they will walk him into starting the kids if they keep putting up Cueto type of performances. Its all on the kids IMO.

[cincrazy]

Originally Posted by icehole3

if Merker's back up to 90 on his FB he could be your guy. I believe Belisle even though he did OK last year is pitching for a new manager and if he gets smacked around start after start in ST, Dusty will move him to the bullpen. Dusty loves the press and the press wanna get into Dusty's head and I believe they will walk him into starting the kids if they keep putting up Cueto type of performances. Its all on the kids IMO.

I agree with you to a certain extent. I don't think Belisle has proven anything to Dusty, and if he's not pitching reasonably well, he won't be in the rotation. He'll have more margin for error than a guy like Cueto for sure, but if Cueto keeps pitching like this, and Belisle continues to be average AT BEST, I can see him in the pen.

I've always thought Belisle would be better used in the bullpen anyways. I think he'd be better served not going through lineups two or three times a game, because that's when he usually runs into trouble and has a bad inning.

[WVRedsFan]

Originally Posted by Austin Kearns

I figure one of Cueto/Volquez makes the rotation with the other going to Fogg. The main question is whether the Reds are ready to introduce 2 of the young guys at the same time and ditch Fogg.

I don't see any way they ditch Fogg. He was acquired by Krivsky and as I said before, Krivsky has a history of giving those he picks up more than ample time to prove he was right in picking them up.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by WVRedsFan

I don't see any way they ditch Fogg. He was acquired by Krivsky and as I said before, Krivsky has a history of giving those he picks up more than ample time to prove he was right in picking them up.

I'm not a huge Fogg fan, but I think he's a key guy. He can be a placehoder in the rotation if need be and if more than one kid shows he's ready, then the Reds will need a reliever capable of going 3 to 5 innings occassionally in order to protect them. Right now, amid all those guys supposedly in contention for a spot in the pen, none of the likely candidates is thought of as more than a 2 inning guy. I am not real thrilled with the idea of breaking in more than one of the young guys in the rotation at a time because I think the younger ones especially need to have the workload monitored and managed with kid gloves. But if the team does have two in the rotation, then Fogg, or some one like him, who can 1.) come in and save the pen and keep the kids from being placed in harm's way and 2.) can make an occassional start should one of the kids be coming off a few outings where they labor too much and need an extra day or two of rest or have their turn skipped altogether, is a necessaity.

I think Bailey is a real risk of jumping to a major league rotation without having built his stamina in the minor leagues to the point of being ready. (This mistake made by the Cubs with Mark Prior in 2002 is much more responsible for why he is a "might have been" than anything that Dusty did IMO.) Cueto is also still at a dangerous age, though his history says he's more ready physically. Volquez is probably more ready to handle it, but still needs to be handled carefully.

If Cueto continues to kick the door in (its not time to declare anything after 5 innings IMO), then a group of Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Belisle and Volquez is probably the rotation. Cueto and Volquez need to be split and I'd consider pitching the 22 year old Cueto in the 2 spot between Harang and Arroyo to allow him to be lifted without over-extending him. Harang in front of him would mean that its likely that the bullpen will be relatively fresh on Cueto's days and Arroyo behind him could absorb an extra inning occassionally if needed. Fogg as the sixth starter, long reliever makes a rotation with two of the kids possible IMO.

Affeldt goes to the pen as the team's top lefty reliever. Bailey goes to AAA (no matter how he pitches this spring IMO) to build his stamina, work on his command and wait his turn. Maloney goes down and tries to carry last season's AA performance to the next level in AAA.

[WebScorpion]

Rotation:
Harang
Arroyo
Affeldt
Cueto
Belisle

Bullpen:
Cordero
Weathers
Burton
Thompson
Volquez
Bray
McBeth

Ok, so I'm crazy. But you asked who I got!

[Joseph]

Harang
Arroyo
Belisle
Affeldt
Cueto

Affeldt gets maybe 4 or 5 starts, if he us struggling then we'll see Volquez or Bailey or Fogg.

[Chip R]

Harang
Weathers
Burton
Cordero

That's for Opening Day

[Caseyfan21]

I'd go with:

Harang
Arroyo
Belisle
Fogg
Volquez

I think Cueto may get a shot in the pen but more than likely Cueto/Bailey start the season at AAA. At this point anything is really possible though (injuries, performance, etc).

[lollipopcurve]

I know it seems to make little sense at the moment, but I'd like to see the Affeldt experiment continue through April, at least. Apparently his changeup is doing pretty well right now, and if he manages to develop that pitch, I like his stuff. Hopefully he's learned to minimize the walks......

Subject to change of course, but right now I'd like to see.....

Harang
Arroyo
Belisle
Affeldt
Cueto

Volquez in the pen. Homer at AAA. Don't ask me about Fogg.......