Reds minors ranked no.3 per Baseball America

[icehole3]

I heard Doc mention it on Sports talk, can anyone comfirm this?

[dougdirt]

Yeah, by Baseball America. I think they are #2 just due to the amount of prospects they have in the upper minors when compared to the Red Sox.

[Benihana]

'Tis a pretty good turnaround from a couple of years ago. Kudos to the front office.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Yeah, by Baseball America. I think they are #2 just due to the amount of prospects they have in the upper minors when compared to the Red Sox.

It is possible that they could fall to the bottom after this year.

Unless a few Reds prospects take huge leaps, I think they'll be in the bottom 5-10 after the big 4 graduate in '08.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

It is possible that they could fall to the bottom after this year.

Unless a few Reds prospects take huge leaps, I think they'll be in the bottom 5-10 after the big 4 graduate in '08.

They are going to fall no doubt, but in the bottom 5-10? I disagree with that. There are still some nice looking prospects behind Bailey, Bruce, Cueto, Maloney, Roenicke, and Votto. The 2007 draft is looking like a nice one which should keep the system ranked in the top 15 IMO. Devin Mesoraco, Todd Frazier, Kyle Lotzkar, Nefi Soto, Scott Carroll, and Brandon Waring all look like good prospects. Add in the possible breakout of Drew Stubbs and rebound of Travis Wood, Josh Ravin, and Chris Valaika in addition to guys like Carlos Fisher, Sam lecure, Danny Dorn, Juan Francisco, Pedro Viola, Justin Reed, and Sean Watson. Add in the 7th overall pick which should produce another high level talent and now we're reading that the Reds have signed a top talent out of the DR. I think there is still enough talent for the Reds to stay in the top 15 after the fab four graduate.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

They are going to fall no doubt, but in the bottom 5-10? I disagree with that. There are still some nice looking prospects behind Bailey, Bruce, Cueto, Maloney, Roenicke, and Votto. The 2007 draft is looking like a nice one which should keep the system ranked in the top 15 IMO. Devin Mesoraco, Todd Frazier, Kyle Lotzkar, Nefi Soto, Scott Carroll, and Brandon Waring all look like good prospects. Add in the possible breakout of Drew Stubbs and rebound of Travis Wood, Josh Ravin, and Chris Valaika in addition to guys like Carlos Fisher, Sam lecure, Danny Dorn, Juan Francisco, Pedro Viola, Justin Reed, and Sean Watson. Add in the 7th overall pick which should produce another high level talent and now we're reading that the Reds have signed a top talent out of the DR. I think there is still enough talent for the Reds to stay in the top 15 after the fab four graduate.

I would venture to guess that every team has the same type of prospects that you named right there. The key is for a few of those to take a big leap.

21 teams have 3 or more names on the top 100 this year. All things being equal (and using estimate numbers), this team would need to have 3-4 names in the top 100 with 1-2 being upper half guys to be in the top 15.

You really couldn't see them ranked 25th or somewhere in that area?

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

I would venture to guess that every team has the same type of prospects that you named right there. The key is for a few of those to take a big leap.

21 teams have 3 or more names on the top 100 this year. All things being equal (and using estimate numbers), this team would need to have 3-4 names in the top 100 with 1-2 being upper half guys to be in the top 15.

You really couldn't see them ranked 25th or somewhere in that area?

Drew Stubbs will be ranked in the top 50 if he carries over his second half success into this season. Todd Frazier received a vote or two for the top 100 from BA IIRC. Mesoraco and Lotzkar could easily jump into the top 100. BA loves prospects like those two. The Reds 7th overall selection will most likely be in the top 100 unless he struggles. Nefi Soto is another guy who could crack the top 100 with a big year. I just don't see them falling to 25. I think 16 or 17 is worse case scenario.

[mth123]

If Bailey stays in AAA this year as he should, the Reds will probably graduate Bruce, Votto, Cueto, and Maloney (maybe lesser guys like Dickerson, McBeth and Janish) off the list. 2009 Top 10??

1. Bailey (if handled right he should still qualify)
2. Frazier
3. Lotzcar
4. Roenicke (assuming the Reds won't give him a chance though they should)
5. Number 7 Pick Guy
6. Rosales
7. Stubbs
8. Soto
9. Mesoraco
10. Fisher, Wood, Valaika, Lecure, Thompson, Viola, Pelland, Dorn, Watson, etc?

Still could be a pretty decent list compared to other organizations.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Drew Stubbs will be ranked in the top 50 if he carries over his second half success into this season. Todd Frazier received a vote or two for the top 100 from BA IIRC. Mesoraco and Lotzkar could easily jump into the top 100. BA loves prospects like those two. The Reds 7th overall selection will most likely be in the top 100 unless he struggles. Nefi Soto is another guy who could crack the top 100 with a big year. I just don't see them falling to 25. I think 16 or 17 is worse case scenario.

I agree that Stubbs will shoot up if he hits like the second half of 2007. He already has the speed, defense and plate discipline. If he starts making hard contact with some improved frequency, he'll be moving way up. OTOH, another year of struggling puts him in Chris Dickerson territory. Stubbs could very well be the key to whether the Reds are still considered a top group in 2009.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by mth123

If Bailey stays in AAA this year as he should, the Reds will probably graduate Bruce, Votto, Cueto, and Maloney (maybe lesser guys like Dickerson, McBeth and Janish) off the list. 2009 Top 10??

1. Bailey (if handled right he should still qualify)
2. Frazier
3. Lotzcar
4. Roenicke (assuming the Reds won't give him a chance though they should)
5. Number 7 Pick Guy
6. Rosales
7. Stubbs
8. Soto
9. Mesoraco
10. Fisher, Wood, Valaika, Lecure, Thompson, Viola, Pelland, Dorn, Watson, etc?

Still could be a pretty decent list compared to other organizations.

Bailey and Roenicke could easily graduate this year.

Take those two off this list and add a top 7 DP who isn't a top, top name and that is easily bottom 10.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Bailey and Roenicke could easily graduate this year.

Take those two off this list and add a top 7 DP who isn't a top, top name and that is easily bottom 10.

You could be right. I hope you are about Roenicke. I'd start the season with him in the Reds pen. I hope Bailey stays in AAA.

[dougdirt]

I am with OBM on this one. Unless there are significant injuries/complete lack of performance, the Reds likely won't fall out of the top 15 with the upcoming graduations. The Reds had 4 players outside of the top 4 garner votes as top 150 prospects. Even with minimal improvement from those guys the Reds could get another 3 or 4 guys into the top 100 by the end of next year with Stubbs, Mesoraco, Francisco, Frazier, or Lotzkar and not including the guy who we will take at #7 overall. Danny Dorn won't garner the attention he deserves from BA, but he will supply that 'depth' criteria that they also look at. They will drop, but it won't be nearly as bad as you are thinking unless something really unforeseen happens to several guys edabbs.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I am with OBM on this one. Unless there are significant injuries/complete lack of performance, the Reds likely won't fall out of the top 15 with the upcoming graduations. The Reds had 4 players outside of the top 4 garner votes as top 150 prospects. Even with minimal improvement from those guys the Reds could get another 3 or 4 guys into the top 100 by the end of next year with Stubbs, Mesoraco, Francisco, Frazier, or Lotzkar and not including the guy who we will take at #7 overall. Danny Dorn won't garner the attention he deserves from BA, but he will supply that 'depth' criteria that they also look at. They will drop, but it won't be nearly as bad as you are thinking unless something really unforeseen happens to several guys edabbs.

Hopefully you are right. But it isn't as if these 4 were knocking on the door. 3 of them received one vote as a top 150 player. The other was Mesoraco, whose vote status was based purely on his HS performance and projection. Not professional performance.

These guys could easily take steps forward. Could easily takes lateral or backwards steps as well. Personally I'm not as high on those guys as some are, which would lead to my belief of the status of the system after this year.

I have been less than impressed with the first 2 drafts of this regime. Hopefully this year will be different. But I said the same thing last year.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Hopefully you are right. But it isn't as if these 4 were knocking on the door. 3 of them received one vote as a top 150 player. The other was Mesoraco, whose vote status was based purely on his HS performance and projection. Not professional performance.

These guys could easily take steps forward. Could easily takes lateral or backwards steps as well. Personally I'm not as high on those guys as some are, which would lead to my belief of the status of the system after this year.

I have been less than impressed with the first 2 drafts of this regime. Hopefully this year will be different. But I said the same thing last year.

If you've been less than impressed with the current regime's drafts, what did you think of the two previous regimes?

[TOBTTReds]

Originally Posted by mth123

You could be right. I hope you are about Roenicke. I'd start the season with him in the Reds pen. I hope Bailey stays in AAA.

Both Homer and Roenicke will likely get plenty of time in Cincy. They won't be able to hold him down.