Gonelong's 7th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

gonelong · 03-23-2008, 11:17 PM

Ok, time for Gonelong's 7th annual Reds Win prediction thread. Similar to years past my requests are minimal:

1. Give a number of Ws you project.
2. Make the prediction as honestly as you can. (Imagine you were betting your house one your estimate being correct.)
3) I will be **AT** the game again this year. (thanks again, to my brother!) Once I return from the game I'll compute the average and post it as the "Redszone ORG consensus".

I think it would be interesting if someone would start a similar thread on the Sundeck and we can have a friendly competition between the ORG and Sundeck.

Here are the historical prediction threads, if anyone wants to check on their past performance:
2007 - RZ Ws: 81.40 Actual: 72 PTHG: 75 - Pretty Optimistic
2006 - RZ Ws: 76.66 Actual: 80 PTHG: 76 - Slightly Pesimistic
2005 - RZ Ws: 84.67 Actual: 73 PTHG: 75 - Wildy Optimistic
2004 - RZ Ws: 76.82 Actual: 76 PTHG: 67 - Right On
2003 - RZ Ws: 87.88 Actual: 69 PTHG: 63 - Wildly Optimistic
2002 - RZ Ws: 79.71 Actual: 78 PTHG: 75 - Slightly Optimistic

My prediction for 2008 prediction of Reds Wins is 80 Ws.

GL

dougdirt · 03-23-2008, 11:17 PM

84 wins

RedsManRick · 03-23-2008, 11:19 PM

79 wins

reds44 · 03-23-2008, 11:22 PM

81 wins

RFS62 · 03-23-2008, 11:23 PM

86 Wins

Jpup · 03-23-2008, 11:26 PM

I was very optimistic last year for some reason and I am less so this year so I will say 83 and third place in the central behind the Cubs and Brewers unfortunately.

wheels · 03-23-2008, 11:28 PM

74 wins.

The pitching's better, but overall the roster is a shambles.

OnBaseMachine · 03-23-2008, 11:31 PM

I'm feeling optimistic about this team just like I do every year, but this time it just feels different. We have two solid starting pitchers at the top of the rotation and two kids with dynamite arms. This is going to be the best rotation we've had since probably the early 90's or longer IMO. The offense is good enough to score around 800 runs; The loss of Hamilton hurt but the improvement of EdE, Votto, and eventually Bruce will offset the loss of Hamilton. The bullpen is still a big question mark but Francisco Cordero helps tremendously. With Cordero in the fold, another solid season from Burton and Weathers, the development of Bill Bray and the arrival of Josh Roenicke, the bullpen improves two months into the season after Stanton is cut loose. Where does all that put us?

86 wins.

RedlegJake · 03-23-2008, 11:32 PM

85 wins

LoganBuck · 03-23-2008, 11:58 PM

70

pedro · 03-24-2008, 12:08 AM

83 Wins. I'm playing that number until they do it.

Last year that didn't work out so well.

Despite that, I remain optimistic and unlike recent seasons I honestly do think this team could really surprise us and win even more. Not that I don't realize that would most likely take good years from all the rookies as well as health and consistent production from everyone else, including the bullpen. It would also require more than we can likely expect from the current core of catchers.

Admittedly, I know that's an amount of good fortune that doesn't often grace any team during a single season and that with just average luck and a few key injuries this team could really struggle.

Either way, I do think the Reds have a lot more talent than they did in any of the last 5 seasons, so at least there are reasons to remain interested as fan, and hey, with the season starting next week that's not so bad.

SirFelixCat · 03-24-2008, 12:17 AM

82 Wins.

I really want to go more, but too many 'ifs' and I think I'm being optimistic as is. Man, this is seriously the most excited for a season that I've been in a few years. The young kids should be a LOT of fun to watch this year!

HumnHilghtFreel · 03-24-2008, 12:19 AM

Although this year I'm more excited with the young guys around, I'm less optimistic about win total... I'll say 80 Wins

MWM · 03-24-2008, 12:23 AM

73-89

Blitz Dorsey · 03-24-2008, 12:26 AM

85 wins.

03-23-2008, 11:17 PM	#1
gonelong Score Early, Score Often Join Date: Sep 2001 Posts: 4,127	Gonelong's 7th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... Ok, time for Gonelong's 7th annual Reds Win prediction thread. Similar to years past my requests are minimal: 1. Give a number of Ws you project. 2. Make the prediction as honestly as you can. (Imagine you were betting your house one your estimate being correct.) 3) I will be AT the game again this year. (thanks again, to my brother!) Once I return from the game I'll compute the average and post it as the "Redszone ORG consensus". I think it would be interesting if someone would start a similar thread on the Sundeck and we can have a friendly competition between the ORG and Sundeck. Here are the historical prediction threads, if anyone wants to check on their past performance: 2007 - RZ Ws: 81.40 Actual: 72 PTHG: 75 - Pretty Optimistic 2006 - RZ Ws: 76.66 Actual: 80 PTHG: 76 - Slightly Pesimistic 2005 - RZ Ws: 84.67 Actual: 73 PTHG: 75 - Wildy Optimistic 2004 - RZ Ws: 76.82 Actual: 76 PTHG: 67 - Right On 2003 - RZ Ws: 87.88 Actual: 69 PTHG: 63 - Wildly Optimistic 2002 - RZ Ws: 79.71 Actual: 78 PTHG: 75 - Slightly Optimistic My prediction for 2008 prediction of Reds Wins is 80 Ws. GL __________________ '02-'12 Prediction Thread Archive(s) ORG Compilation

03-23-2008, 11:17 PM	#2
dougdirt The Boss Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 30,713	Re: Gonelong's 7th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... 84 wins __________________ www.redsminorleagues.com

03-23-2008, 11:19 PM	#3
RedsManRick Stat Wanker Hodiernus Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 14,915	Re: Gonelong's 7th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... 79 wins __________________ Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

03-23-2008, 11:23 PM	#5
RFS62 Hey Cubs Fans Join Date: Apr 2000 Location: New York Posts: 16,567	Re: Gonelong's 7th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... 86 Wins __________________ "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover." ~ Mark Twain

03-23-2008, 11:26 PM	#6
Jpup Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Southern KY Posts: 6,967	Re: Gonelong's 7th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... I was very optimistic last year for some reason and I am less so this year so I will say 83 and third place in the central behind the Cubs and Brewers unfortunately. __________________ "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

03-23-2008, 11:28 PM	#7
wheels Dented and Spent Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Columbus, Ohio Posts: 6,536	Re: Gonelong's 7th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... 74 wins. The pitching's better, but overall the roster is a shambles. __________________ "Opening Day.... Pfffft! We get all excited, thinking they're gonna have some kinda great year....Same thing over and over. Disappointment. What time do you want me to come over?" - My Dad. Opening Day 2012.

03-23-2008, 11:31 PM	#8
OnBaseMachine Member Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 34,655	Re: Gonelong's 7th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... I'm feeling optimistic about this team just like I do every year, but this time it just feels different. We have two solid starting pitchers at the top of the rotation and two kids with dynamite arms. This is going to be the best rotation we've had since probably the early 90's or longer IMO. The offense is good enough to score around 800 runs; The loss of Hamilton hurt but the improvement of EdE, Votto, and eventually Bruce will offset the loss of Hamilton. The bullpen is still a big question mark but Francisco Cordero helps tremendously. With Cordero in the fold, another solid season from Burton and Weathers, the development of Bill Bray and the arrival of Josh Roenicke, the bullpen improves two months into the season after Stanton is cut loose. Where does all that put us? 86 wins.

03-23-2008, 11:32 PM	#9
RedlegJake Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: North Kansas City, Mo Posts: 3,854	Re: Gonelong's 7th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... 85 wins

03-23-2008, 11:58 PM	#10
LoganBuck I hate the Cubs Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 5,581	Re: Gonelong's 7th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... 70 __________________ Whenever you get mad over a called strike or ball on a close pitch, it's the equivalent of being mad at the QB pump-faking one time before throwing a pass in your average NFL game. ---Caveat Emperor

03-24-2008, 12:08 AM	#11
pedro Please come again Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: portland, oregon Posts: 14,716	Re: Gonelong's 7th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... 83 Wins. I'm playing that number until they do it. Last year that didn't work out so well. Despite that, I remain optimistic and unlike recent seasons I honestly do think this team could really surprise us and win even more. Not that I don't realize that would most likely take good years from all the rookies as well as health and consistent production from everyone else, including the bullpen. It would also require more than we can likely expect from the current core of catchers. Admittedly, I know that's an amount of good fortune that doesn't often grace any team during a single season and that with just average luck and a few key injuries this team could really struggle. Either way, I do think the Reds have a lot more talent than they did in any of the last 5 seasons, so at least there are reasons to remain interested as fan, and hey, with the season starting next week that's not so bad. __________________ Get your nunchucks and the keys to your dad's car. I know where we can get a gun

03-24-2008, 12:17 AM	#12
SirFelixCat Member Join Date: May 2002 Location: Denver, CO Posts: 5,673	Re: Gonelong's 7th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... 82 Wins. I really want to go more, but too many 'ifs' and I think I'm being optimistic as is. Man, this is seriously the most excited for a season that I've been in a few years. The young kids should be a LOT of fun to watch this year! __________________ Resident Poker Pro

03-24-2008, 12:19 AM	#13
HumnHilghtFreel Manliness Personified Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 2,690	Re: Gonelong's 7th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... Although this year I'm more excited with the young guys around, I'm less optimistic about win total... I'll say 80 Wins

03-24-2008, 12:23 AM	#14
MWM Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! Join Date: Oct 2001 Posts: 12,171	Re: Gonelong's 7th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... 73-89 __________________ Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

03-24-2008, 12:26 AM	#15
Blitz Dorsey Party like it's 1990 Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Columbus, OH Posts: 4,318	Re: Gonelong's 7th annual Season W/L prediction thread ... 85 wins.

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