Moves I would make

[klw]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

-Ship out one of Ryan Freel/Norris Hopper and call up Jerry Hairston Jr. from Louisville. Hairston is not exactly a savior but he's hitting .404/.436/.712 and could provide an upgrade to Freel or Hopper. Also, I'd phone Reggie Sanders and see if he has any interest in returning to Cincinnati as a 4th outfielder. If so, he takes the place of Hairston.

-Call up Jay Bruce and insert him into the lineup as the everyday center fielder. I keep Patterson around as a defensive replacement and bat off the bench.

-Send Todd Coffey to Louisville and bring up Bill Bray. Bray has been dominant in Louisville - 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 11 K. I think he's ready to step his game up and become a very good reliever.

-Place David Weathers on the disabled list and call up RHP Josh Roenicke from Chattanooga. Roenicke pitched strong in spring training and is off to a good start in Chattanooga. He, along with Cordero and Burton give the Reds some heat in the back of the bullpen.

Reggie Sanders can still hit lefties and provides some 'pop' off the bench. The addition of Bruce to the lineup adds power and in the meantime strengthens the bench with Patterson now the 4th/5th outfielder. Bray and Roenicke have great arms and could help the bullpen tremendously.

So
out
Fropper (Gone)
Coffey (to LOU)
Weathers (to 15 man DL)

In
Hairston (not on 40 man)
Bruce (not on 40 man)
Bray
Roenicke (not on 40 man)

So unless things have changed, you need to get another person off of the 25 man roster and 2 more off of the 40 man.
Who goes?

[Benihana]

Here would be the moves I'd make in chronological order:

IMMEDIATELY

1. Promote Bill Bray, send Todd Coffey to Louisville
2. Promote Jerry Hairston Jr., send Norris Hopper to Louisville (if he has options, otherwise DFA)
3. Sign Mike Piazza to be the go-to RH pinch-hitter and backup catcher to Bako, although I'd play Bako everyday. DFA Javy Valentin.
4. Play Corey Patterson and Ryan Freel in a strict righty/lefty platoon, and go with this lineup for the next three weeks (Dusty never would, but just for the heck of it):

SS Keppinger
2B Phillips
LF Dunn
RF Griffey
3B Encarnacion
1B Votto
C Bako
Pitcher
CF Patterson/Freel

MAY 15

1. If Freel and Patterson don't break out of their slumps, I promote Jay Bruce and play him everyday in CF. If Freel hits well over this time period, I try to trade him for anything of value. If not, I DFA Juan Castro to make room for Bruce and Freel returns to his bench role. If Patterson starts to hit again, I would leave Bruce in AAA until one of the OFers gets injured.
2. Promote Drew Stubbs, Juan Francisco and Chris Valaika to Chattanooga (assuming they continue to rake.)
3. Promote Todd Frazier and Brandon Waring to Sarasota (assuming they continue to rake.)
4. Promote Josh Roenicke and Carlos Fisher to Louisville. If those guys are gonna make it, they should get used to pitching to better competition at their age.
5. I continue using a rotation of Harang-Cueto-Arroyo-Volquez-Belisle. If a spot start is needed, I use Fogg or one of the AAA vets (Lehr/Shearn) during this time period. Otherwise Fogg stays in his long relief/mop-up role.

JUNE 15

1. I address the Adam Dunn situation. If he is hitting over .250 at this point, I would offer him an extension- first offering more money for a 3-year deal, and then if he refuses offer less money for a 4-year deal. Either way, I would not exceed $60 MM in total money.
2. I would also revisit the Homer Bailey situation. If he continues to deal the way he has in the last month, I consider him for a promotion. If a spot starter is needed at this point, he is the guy. If he has success, I would go to a six-man rotation, with Harang pitching every fifth day no matter what. The other guys rotate around him in order to keep the rookies' innings down.

TRADES

During these next two months, I would constantly be looking to make trades, with all of the following players expendable: (I would like to move all of the major leaguers for the best return possible, however small that may be.)

Javy Valentin
Scott Hatteberg
Ryan Freel
Norris Hopper
Alex Gonzalez

Matt Maloney (his value may never be higher than it is now- trade him only for a nice haul)
Carlos Fisher (he looks to have regressed a bit so far this year)
Sam LeCure (ditto)
BJ Szymanski (I would see if someone would bite on his hot start.)
Juan Francisco (he definitely has value, but I'd be wary of his plate discipline and he has nowhere to play)

Guys I would be targeting include the following:

Taylor Teagarden C TEX
Max Ramirez C TEX
Wladimir Balentien OF SEA
Matt Kemp OF LAD
Andy Marte 1B/3B/OF CLE
Brian Anderson OF CHW
Matt LaPorta OF MIL
Erick Aybar SS LAA

JULY AND BEYOND

If/when Bailey joins the rotation in June and shows that he can stay there, I would also consider dealing Arroyo or Belisle, especially if the Reds could land a guy like Yunel Escobar (doubtful, but worth inquiring.) That situation would depend on where the Reds are in the standings come July. If Dunn refuses to sign for $60 MM or less- or if he continues to straddle the Mendoza line, I would try to move him at the deadline as well. However if Dunn is re-signed and the Reds are out of contention come July 31, I would look to deal Griffey Jr. for the best possible return. One intriguing option that I would explore is trading Jr. and Maloney to Seattle for Waldimir Balentin and Jeff Clement or Kenji Johjima- provided we could sign the latter to a reasonable extension. Additionally, the Dodgers are also reportedly discussing a contract extension with Rafael Furcal, which would make shortstop prospect Chin Ling Hu expendable. Ditto for Brent Lillebridge in Atlanta if Escobar continues to rake. I would inquire about those two if they could be had for any of the spare parts listed above (not Dunn, Belisle, or Arroyo.) Also, if Darryl Thompson and Travis Wood continue to dazzle, I would give them both a midseason promotion to Louisville and Chattanooga, respectively.
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[RedEye]

Nice post. Thanks for so much material to chew on. A couple of thoughts...

I address the Adam Dunn situation. If he is hitting over .250 at this point, I would offer him an extension- first offering more money for a 3-year deal, and then if he refuses offer less money for a 4-year deal. Either way, I would not exceed $60 MM in total money.

I agree that Dunn's possible extension needs to be addressed around July, but I wonder why a .250 batting average is your criterion. Seems like there are much better measures of his value, no?

If/when Bailey joins the rotation in June and shows that he can stay there, I would also consider dealing Arroyo or Belisle, especially if the Reds could land a guy like Yunel Escobar (doubtful, but worth inquiring.)

Escobar is good, and I'd love to see the Reds consider a deal like this. The Braves also might be more motivated to do it than one would think since they have a hot 2B prospect named Lillibridge waiting in the wings. If they don't want to trade Yunel, I propose Lillibridge instead.
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[Hoosier Red]

Originally Posted by RedEye

Nice post. Thanks for so much material to chew on. A couple of thoughts...



I agree that Dunn's possible extension needs to be addressed around July, but I wonder why a .250 batting average is your criterion. Seems like there are much better measures of his value, no?



Escobar is good, and I'd love to see the Reds consider a deal like this. The Braves also might be more motivated to do it than one would think since they have a hot 2B prospect named Lillibridge waiting in the wings. If they don't want to trade Yunel, I propose Lillibridge instead.
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Not to answer for him, but I think we trust that Dunn's other numbers will be up. While BA is an imperfect measurement at best, I think it can be a solid bellweather as to the type of production Adam is attaining.

He's not likely to keep up his current walk rate, so if he's able to replace some of the walks with hits(preferrably Xbase hits) his BA will be above .250.

[WebScorpion]

To me, the bottom line is this: This team does not currently have the personnel to succeed. They have too many 'offense only' players, and as they are demonstrating, all offense experiences slumps. The team can survive with defensive liabilities at some (1 or 2) positions, but not at 5 or 6 spots. Dunn in LF, Griffey in RF, EE at 3B, Votto at 1B, Kepp at SS, and Bako behind the dish are all below average defenders in my opinion. Gonzo returning at SS and moving Kepp to 3rd would improve 2 spots, just as Putting Bruce in RF and moving Griff to LF. I think Votto will improve with time, but I think EE is what he is...EE might be a better defender at 1B or LF, but new positions are to be learned in AAA, not the big club. I don't believe any of our catchers are plus defenders, but a platoon of Bako and Ross is the best we've got. These moves would more than likely handcuff our offense, but those are the only moves I can see with our current group of talent that might put our defense at a Major League level. That leaves us with Dunn and EE (unless he's sent to AAA to learn a new position) to trade for a right-handed hitting plus defender catcher, or a plus defending CF who can hit...preferrably also right-handed. I won't get into specifics about who I'd trade for because that's just too iffy...you test the market and take the best deal you can get. Oh yeah, I also wouldn't do any of this until we got closer to the All-Star break.

[membengal]

The Cubs had mothballed Matt Murton in AAA until Soriano got hurt. He's back up now, but who knows for how long?

He had 13 homeruns a few years back. He's RH. I know others have mumured his name before now, but I add my name to that list too. Seems to me like he possesses a skill set needed by this team, and should be available. That's a fairly easy trade I wish they would pursue.