Jay Bruce Crystal Ball

[Screwball]

John Sickels posted his personal "crystal ball" for Jay Bruce over on his site (www.minorleagueball.com/). Here's what he predicts:



I'd like to see what RedsZone thinks about John's prognosis. Too optimistic, Just Right, or Too Pessimistic?

[OnBaseMachine]

I think he'll be a perennial .300-.320 hitter with 35-40 homeruns maybe more in some seasons. John does a solid job with the crystal balls - those projections are always fun to read.

[Joseph]

I don't like him listing him as playing with the Astros. Numbers though, how could any of us be upset if Jay Bruce puts up HoF type numbers.

[Spring~Fields]

I think that he is shorting Bruce in the early years. I expect him to do Votto numbers if not better.

[Screwball]

Originally Posted by SpringfieldFan

I think that he is shorting Bruce in the early years. I expect him to do Votto numbers if not better.

Yeah, I was pretty surprised to see Sickels have Jay Bruce with a .223 avg. this year. IMO, he won't set the league on fire just yet, but he'll be a little more productive than stated.

However, it's tough to complain about the predicted peak numbers. 80-95 XBH a year, with almost half of 'em being home runs? 504 career homers? I'll take it.

[Benihana]

2014 -2016 look like MVP years if I'm not mistaken

I'll take a three-time MVP in a Reds uni

[Steve4192]

That's pretty much what I envision for his future (assuming he stays physically & mentally healthy).

The only nit I would pick is that his walk rate looks too low, especially later in his career after he has established himself as a superduperstar. Pitchers will start nibbling and intentionally walking him if he establishes himself as a 300 hitting 40 HR guy. Plus, even before he establishes himself, I highly doubt he will be a hacking away to the tune of a paltry 30+ walks per year. Sickels has him flirting with a sub-300 OBP right up until he becomes an MVP candidate in 2013. That's is not realistic IMO.

I expect him to start out as a 50 walks per year kind of hitter and eventually build towards 80 walks per year as he hits his peak.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

That's pretty much what I envision for his future (assuming he stays physically & mentally healthy).

The only nit I would pick is that walk rate looks too low, especially later in his career after he has established himself as a superduperstar. Pitchers will start nibbling and intentionally walking him if he establishes himself as a 300 hitting 40 HR guy. While the BB rates at the start of his career might be realistic, I expect him to eventually turn into a 75-85 walks per year kind of hitter.

Very good point. That was one of the first things that come to my mind when I read this thread.

[medford]

While those numbers look very nice, apparently Sickels doesn't know that Bruce is the Boss; I think his peak will be better.

[Cyclone792]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

That's pretty much what I envision for his future (assuming he stays physically & mentally healthy).

The only nit I would pick is that his walk rate looks too low, especially later in his career after he has established himself as a superduperstar. Pitchers will start nibbling and intentionally walking him if he establishes himself as a 300 hitting 40 HR guy. Plus, even before he establishes himself, I highly doubt he will be a hacking away to the tune of a paltry 30+ walks per year. Sickels has him flirting with a sub-300 OBP right up until he becomes an MVP candidate in 2013. That's is not realistic IMO.

I expect him to start out as a 50 walks per year kind of hitter and eventually build towards 80 walks per year as he hits his peak.

I'm with you here.

People may get giddy with those counting stats listed, but the approx. OBP with those stats is .340 with the approx. SLG being around .520, good for an .860 OPS.

What's suspect to me is Sickels has Bruce with 1,112 extra base hits and only 798 walks (as an aside, Griffey has exactly 1,112 extra base hits right now to go with 1,175 walks). To me, if Bruce is going to put up that high of an extra base hit total, then his walk total will be higher. If he's only walking once every 13 PAs then I highly doubt he'll stroke 1,100 extra base hits. I'm not sure if that player has ever existed, and if he does exist then there isn't many of them around.

[Screwball]

Originally Posted by Benihana

2014 -2016 look like MVP years if I'm not mistaken

I'll take a three-time MVP in a Reds uni

His line for those years (OBP*/SLG/OPS):

2014: .362*/.621/.983
2015: .368*/.573/.941
2016: .382*/.568/.950

*: I figured up his OBP by adding hits and walks and then dividing by PA. I didn't have information concerning sac flies and reached on errors, etc., so I just ignored it.

[camisadelgolf]

A few guys I think of when I look at this thread are Joe Carter, Andres Galarraga, and Jim Rice. I don't think any of them struck out as much as Bruce is projected to, but they're a few players I recall not walking very much and still managing to put up some good power numbers year in and year out.

[Degenerate39]

Blasphemey! He'll be a career Red and hit 50 homers every year.

[UC_Ken]

I had to go with too optimistic. The number I really didn't like was the 504 HR. Projecting a player who has not played in the majors to hit 500+ HR is a huge reach.

[Rounding Third]

Originally Posted by UC_Ken

I had to go with too optimistic. The number I really didn't like was the 504 HR. Projecting a player who has not played in the majors to hit 500+ HR is a huge reach.

Its a crystal ball of a player who hasn't played in the majors.