Tracking Adam Dunn on the All-Time Career Home Run List

[Razor Shines]

Originally Posted by bucksfan2

Palmero says hi. Even before the PED incident he wasn't considered a HOF. I think Dunn will fit into that mold.

Huh? 3000 hits and 550+ HRs isn't a lock for the HOF any more? I'm pretty Raffy was going to be in the Hall without the PED incident, 1st ballot most likely.

[RichRed]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

I think he's going to have to do something that cannot be ignored or explained away. The most likely thing for him to do that fits that description is to hit 600.

This is what I'm thinking too. I understand different eras, smaller parks, etc., but I don't think the writers are necessarily that nuanced in their thinking. That #600 is a big ol' matsoh ball hanging out there. Much easier to ignore Joe Adcock's 336 homers, for example, because it just doesn't have that wow factor.

And as has been pointed out, the perspective looking back 20 years or so from now may be completely different.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by RichRed

This is what I'm thinking too. I understand different eras, smaller parks, etc., but I don't think the writers are necessarily that nuanced in their thinking. That #600 is a big ol' matsoh ball hanging out there. Much easier to ignore Joe Adcock's 336 homers, for example, because it just doesn't have that wow factor.

And as has been pointed out, the perspective looking back 20 years or so from now may be completely different.

When Joe retired he was 20th on the all time list, 5 years later he was 25th.

Today he's 87th.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by RichRed

This is what I'm thinking too. I understand different eras, smaller parks, etc., but I don't think the writers are necessarily that nuanced in their thinking. That #600 is a big ol' matsoh ball hanging out there. Much easier to ignore Joe Adcock's 336 homers, for example, because it just doesn't have that wow factor.

And as has been pointed out, the perspective looking back 20 years or so from now may be completely different.

It's possible that Dunn could end his career with 600 hrs and less than 2000 hits.

He's in his age thirty season as well. Assuming he'll significantly dent the 500's is kind of begging the question IMHO.

He's a pretty poor investment as a HOF stock IMHO.

[RedsBaron]

As I have posted before, since Bid McPhee made the Hall of Fame a mere century after he retired it is hard to say virtually anyone other than perhaps Juan Castro has no chance at eventually being inducted, but the odds at this point are against Adam Dunn being enshrined. He is now 30 years old and has a body type that probably will not age well. While Dunn has been remarkably durable in his major league career, it remains to be seen how well he will age.
Dunn's Hall of Fame Monitor score is 53, about half way to the 100 score of the average member of the HOF. Of his ten most similar hitters, none are in the HOF. Of the ten most similar hitters through age 29 only three (Reggie Jackson, Harmon Killebrew and Ralph Kiner) are in the Hall, and, unlike Reggie!, the Killer and Kiner, Dunn has no HR crowns to his credit, and has only made one all star team (2002).
If Dunn fails to reach 500 career HRs I would guess he has no chance of being inducted. Absent scandal, if Dunn reaches 600 career HRs he is certain to be inducted, and my guess is that 500 career HRs would eventually cause Cooperstown to open its doors to him.

[Big Klu]

In the 80's, the magic number for career home runs was 400. I remember a broadcaster (I think it was Joe Garagiola) say that no player who had hit 400 homers had ever failed to be inducted into the Hall Of Fame. That is, until Dave Kingman came along. Then the magic number increased to 500. Then along came Rafael Palmeiro (whose chances were very questionable even before the steroid scandal). So the magic number is likely higher now--until the next guy who reaches that milestone is deemed unworthy. Is that guy Adam Dunn? Who knows. I guess I'm saying that I don't really believe in a magic number for home runs as a ticket to the HOF anymore. (3000 hits still seems pretty solid, though.)

[redsfandan]

Is Jim Thome a HOFer? He's got the counting stats (569 homers, 1580 rbi) so he's got a shot but I don't know that I'd consider him a lock since the HOF tends to frown on players that play a significant part of their career at dh. And I think Dunn could be thought of the same way in 10 years.

Even IF Dunn keeps up his current pace I think he'll have to show that he can be at least a neutral defender (and for more than 30+ games) and have some really BIG offensive seasons on playoff teams. If he doesn't do that then I think he could very well end up as one of those players that just miss being elected.

[RedsBaron]

Originally Posted by redsfandan

Is Jim Thome a HOFer?

IMO, absent scandal, yes. Thome has a HOF Monitor score of 146, well above the 100 score of the average member of the Hall of Fame. The only players* eligible for the HOF with a higher score who have not yet been inducted are Roberto Alomar, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro and Jeff Bagwell. Alomar will probably make it next year and I expect Bagwell to be inducted. McGwire and Palmiero likely would go in but for steroid allegations.
* Pete Rose and Joe Jackson also have higher scores but are ineligible.
Thome is a five time all star with a 52 HR season, another year in which he lead his league in HRs (47) and I think holds the record for post season HRs with 37. I don't expect him to be inducted in his first year on the ballot, it may take him 10 years or more, but yeah I expect he will get in.

[Raisor]

Originally Posted by Big Klu

Then along came Rafael Palmeiro (whose chances were very questionable even before the steroid scandal).

(3000 hits still seems pretty solid, though.)

so which one was it?

Palmeiro was a sure in before the PEDs/

[Big Klu]

Originally Posted by Raisor

so which one was it?

Palmeiro was a sure in before the PEDs/

To be honest, I had forgotten that Palmeiro had 3000 hits. I was only thinking of him as a power hitter.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I can't believe so many people are already writing off Big Papi. Last year on June 2nd, he had a line of .186/.282/.284. After that, he put up a line of .265/.357/.553 to finish up a solid year. I agree that he's on the downside of his career, but as long as he's healthy, I don't think he's a sub-.700 OPS player just yet.

I hate to get off topic, but Big Papi's OPS jumped to over .800 after yesterday.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I hate to get off topic, but Big Papi's OPS jumped to over .800 after yesterday.

Another update on Big Papi, not that anyone else cares: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...tting_gamelogs

I believe he has a 1.268 OPS since May 1st.

[Degenerate39]

In other news Dunn has 10 homers so far this year and 326 life time

[Razor Shines]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Another update on Big Papi, not that anyone else cares: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...tting_gamelogs

I believe he has a 1.268 OPS since May 1st.

He must be back on his steroid cycle.

[Ron Madden]

Originally Posted by Degenerate39

In other news Dunn has 10 homers so far this year and 326 life time

Thanks for turning this thread back to the original topic.