Baseball Prospectus on the draft and Reds No. 7 pick

[OnBaseMachine]

After reading an article from BP today on the draft, I'm beginning to think there's a better chance of Brian Matusz falling to the Reds than I thought. It's still highly unlikely but the likeliness is improving. BP says the Rays won't draft Crow/Matusz. The Pirates like Tim Beckham and Pedro Alvarez with the No. 2 pick. The Royals really like Alvarez and won't let him slip past them. The Orioles at No. 4 will probably dictate whether or not Matusz falls to the Reds. BP says the Orioles really want a college pitcher and are focused on Crow/Matusz but they would think long and hard about Alvarez. The Giants at No. 5 want a college hitter, probably Gordon Beckham or Smoak but BP rumors are swirling the Giants may reach and take an up the middle college player who no one has projected as a first rounder. The Marlins are No. 6 really like HS catcher Kyle Skipworth. The best case scenario for the Reds to get Matusz would go something like this: Posey to Rays, Beckham/Alvarez to Pirates, Beckham/Alvarez to Royals, Crow to Orioles, Smoak/Beckham to Giants, Skipworth to Marlins, leaving the Reds with Brian Matusz.

Here's a summary of the Reds potential pick:

BP says the Reds are leaning toward a college player for sure. Their realistic preference is Gordon Beckham because they need a long-term shortstop. Crow and Matusz falling to No. 7 would be tempting because Jocketty likes college pitchers. They also mention the Reds have interest in Miami 1B Yonder Alonso.

[11larkin11]

I thought I read somewhere that G. Beckham probably wasn't going to stick at SS?

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by 11larkin11

I thought I read somewhere that G. Beckham probably wasn't going to stick at SS?

Reports says he has above average range and he's capable of being an excellent defender but milb.com says he may move because of his size. BS if you ask me. If he's got above average range then he should be able to stick at SS.

[Az. Reds Fan]

MLBDraft ( http://www.mlb-draft.com/mock-draft.html ) has updated their mock draft and have the Reds choosing Matusz.

If the Reds could get one of G. Beckham, Smoak or Matusz, I would be thrilled

[OnBaseMachine]

I don't know how to do cartwheels but I'm going to learn very soon because I'm going to turn cartwheels on draft day if the Reds get Brian Matusz. He's the perfect fit for the Reds rotation - a big strong, durable lefty with four above average pitches and he profiles as a top-of-rotation type pitcher. He'll probably spend a year in the minors and reach the majors sometime in 2009. Imagine this 2010 rotation:

RHP Edinson Volquez
RHP Aaron Harang
LHP Brian Matusz
RHP Johnny Cueto
RHP Homer Bailey/RHP Daryl Thompson

[lollipopcurve]

Yesterday I projected Matusz to the Reds, too. I hope that has people excited.

Seriously, though, I think I still prefer Posey over anyone.

[Blue]

I don't think they'll take Smoak at #7. I think it will be between Crow, Matusz, and Beckham. I'll be satisfied with any of them.

[Blue]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Yesterday I projected Matusz to the Reds, too. I hope that has people excited.

Seriously, though, I think I still prefer Posey over anyone.

Me too, but I think he'll go before #7.

[fearofpopvol1]

Brian Matusz has been my favorite of this class all along. The only one I'd maybe want over him would be Posey, but Posey will not fall to the Reds. Brian Matusz would be an amazing pick for the Reds if indeed they can land him. I would be very disappointed if he was available and they didn't take him.