Reds Minor League System After Bruce

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Originally Posted by HokieRed

Where's the news on Gil? If it's true and Strait and Cumberland aren't also moving, then that seems to me a real mistake on Walt's part.

Surprising because he really seems to be promoting youth. Higher levels are getting younger and better.

Strait needs to be in Louisville.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Maloney isn't a top 5 talent 'obviously' because well, I don't think he is. There are several top 10's listed here and he isn't in the top 5 of them and not even in the top 10 of some (although I do guess some just left him out, but maybe not).

LH SP, career K/9 north of 9, stingy with the long ball. Did I mention he's LH? yeah, IMO top 5 in the Reds system. his K/9 is lower this month than last, but his BABIP has normalized a bit, and he's giving up fewer hits. His control is outstanding.

Oh, and he's LH.

[11larkin11]

I think people are underestimating how good Stubbs has been this year, as he is back on the map as a prospect, IMO. He will be a major leaguer no matter what, with his GG defense, speed, base stealing abilities, and amazing ability to take a walk. Plus, he has been hitting fairly well in a pitchers league. Now we just need the power to come around. I am in the minority, but my Top 5 is Bailey-Frazier-Stubbs-Thompson-Mez

[Oxilon]

Let's also remember we still have the #7 pick in the upcoming draft so we should be adding another top ten prospect to our lists and even perhaps a top 100 prospect in all of baseball.

[SMcGavin]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Why is it people keep overlooking Matt Maloney? His numbers are almost identicle to Thompson's and they're at AAA instead of AA. He's simply got to be one of the Reds' top 5 prospects IMO.

Because he doesn't throw that hard. That's the reason. I have never heard a criticism of Maloney that had anything to do with the results he's had during his career. At this point there's not much point in debating him anymore, since his continued success at AAA isn't going to convince someone who thinks his stuff doesn't translate to the MLB level. All there is to do is wait until he actually gets the call to the Reds and see what happens.

[Aronchis]

Nah, Maloney's problem isn't his velocity. It just that he doesn't have a + pitch.

My top 10 now are:
1.Frazier: Best bet to make it
2.Thompson: Shoulder worries keep him down but if he can perform in AAA, he may jump to number 1
3.Travis Wood: Sleeper who may put it together next year and has a + pitch.
4.Mes: I think we will like this guy by September
5.Lotzker: Big time arm, but VERY young
6.Valaika: Good contact potential but needs time
7.Bailey: Has fallen down the list with questionable fire and desire. Gavin Floyd may be the best his future looks.
8.Stubbs: Still has hitting questions, but controls the plate well
9.Francisco: Very raw, but with a ton of power
10.Roenicke: Key player for the Reds bullpen over the next several months

Right now everything looks on track from the 06 projections except Bailey has stagnated. Votto and Bruce did exactly what was hoped. Cueto was rushed a bit but looks on course. Sleepers like Janish may have value.

The Bailey problem is probably the number 1 thing to figure out.

[Oxilon]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

7.Bailey: Has fallen down the list with questionable fire and desire. Gavin Floyd may be the best his future looks.

Dude c'mon, exaggerate a little why don't you? Seriously, so he's had a few bad starts and now the bandwagon falls apart? I can't wait to come back in a couple months and read all these current Bailey posts. A lot of people are going to have to eat some crow.

And, for what it's worth, Gavin Floyd hasn't been too shabby this season. 60 IP with a sub 3.00 ERA and the dude almost came close to a couple no hitters already this season.

[Aronchis]

Originally Posted by Oxilon

Dude c'mon, exaggerate a little why don't you? Seriously, so he's had a few bad starts and now the bandwagon falls apart? I can't wait to come back in a couple months and read all these current Bailey posts. A lot of people are going to have to eat some crow.

And, for what it's worth, Gavin Floyd hasn't been too shabby this season. 60 IP with a sub 3.00 ERA and the dude almost came close to a couple no hitters already this season.

It is more than this year, he began to slide last year. Maybe he doesn't have desire issues, maybe he was a HGH pitcher and that was how he kept up high velocities.

Whatever, Homer hasn't thrown consistantly hard for 2 straight seasons(if not losing velocity) now which exposes his lack of a offspeed pitch and lack of movement. Homer's key was a heavy action fastball coming in at 94-98mph made by a long delivery. If you look at his minor league career, he has struggled when he throws in the low 90's. The higher up the chain you go, the more exposed that becomes.

The Reds have a decision to make with Bailey. Can he regain velocity in the bullpen? Should they wait him out to he is 25 like Gavin Floyld(The Phillies didn't)?

Decisions, decisions.

[icehole3]

wait him out, he's just trying to get himself together, he'll be OK

[camisadelgolf]

Okay, my top ten. I'm sure I'm forgetting someone, but I'm too lazy to look through the organization at the moment:

1. Homer Bailey
2. Todd Frazier
3. Juan Duran
4. Daryl Thompson
5. Drew Stubbs
6. Devin Mesoraco
7. Travis Wood
8. Matt Maloney
9. Josh Roenicke
10. Kyle Lotzkar

[Oxilon]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

It is more than this year, he began to slide last year. Maybe he doesn't have desire issues, maybe he was a HGH pitcher and that was how he kept up high velocities.

Whatever, Homer hasn't thrown consistantly hard for 2 straight seasons(if not losing velocity) now which exposes his lack of a offspeed pitch and lack of movement. Homer's key was a heavy action fastball coming in at 94-98mph made by a long delivery. If you look at his minor league career, he has struggled when he throws in the low 90's. The higher up the chain you go, the more exposed that becomes.

The Reds have a decision to make with Bailey. Can he regain velocity in the bullpen? Should they wait him out to he is 25 like Gavin Floyld(The Phillies didn't)?

Decisions, decisions.

You have you're theories, and I have mine. Personally, I think Bailey is one stubborn SOB and that's a major reason for his lack luster performances thus far. He believes he should be in the majors right now and he's not. And instead of trying everything in his manpower to get up here, his thinking is he'll be up here sooner rather later no matter what he does, whether it be actually do all the work that comes with pitching every five days or reading a hunting magazine between innings.

And I may be in the small minority when I say this, but I believe Homer would actually relish playing in the bigs right now, atleast more so than he does playing at Louisville. It's almost as if he has a chip on his shoulder or a grudge against the FO for not letting him play up here right now.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Bailey (going back to last year) now has 23 starts in AAA:

137 IP (5.9 per start)
113 K (7.42 K/9)....decent, but not overpowering.
61 BB (4.07 BB/9)....walks are down slightly, but still a little high.
112 H (7.36 H/9)
1.26 WHIP - not good, but walks are contributing to it.

Not missing bats. Not great command, but getting slightly better there. Getting hit, but not giving up too many long balls. Hopefully he's just BABIP unlucky and will get better with his command. He needs to shave off at least one walk per 9 innings.

[Aronchis]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

Bailey (going back to last year) now has 23 starts in AAA:

137 IP (5.9 per start)
113 K (7.42 K/9)....decent, but not overpowering.
61 BB (4.07 BB/9)....walks are down slightly, but still a little high.
112 H (7.36 H/9)
1.26 WHIP - not good, but walks are contributing to it.

Not missing bats. Not great command, but getting slightly better there. Getting hit, but not giving up too many long balls. Hopefully he's just BABIP unlucky and will get better with his command. He needs to shave off at least one walk per 9 innings.

The trouble is, when Homer has had "better command", he still wasn't missing bats. The key is why he isn't missing bats. I think it is all velocity. Throw consistant mid-90's and he probably misses bats.

It would be interesting to track his strikeouts in AAA and chart his velocity.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Originally Posted by Aronchis

The trouble is, when Homer has had "better command", he still wasn't missing bats. The key is why he isn't missing bats. I think it is all velocity. Throw consistant mid-90's and he probably misses bats.

It would be interesting to track his strikeouts in AAA and chart his velocity.

I think it's safe to assume he needs to spend the rest of the year in AAA.

His numbers don't jump out and scream "LOOK AT ME".

[Aronchis]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

I think it's safe to assume he needs to spend the rest of the year in AAA.

His numbers don't jump out and scream "LOOK AT ME".

I think it also screams: I don't have a major league quality changeup. If he did, his "weak" velocity wouldn't be so bad as he could mix pitches.

It just is disappointing to us fans that we thought he would be a fireballing phenom 2 years ago and that didn't turn out to be the case.