Drew Stubbs....

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

It's not damaging Francisco. three years younger and has a .866 OPS at home.

I think it's because he's SLG .538.

Francisco is a different kind of beast. He has power that is going to play anywhere. My bet is if he were in the Cal League as opposed to the FSL, he would be slugging well over .600 right now.

[TRF]

You could have stopped at "He has power..."

Good LD% + high SLG% = POWER.

Good LD% + low SLG% = something else.

Now sure, you can factor luck into this a little bit. Can someone tell me what the average BABIP is in the major leagues? I think I've read it's around .300. I actually have a point to this, but I am still trying to put it together.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by TRF

You could have stopped at "He has power..."

Good LD% + high SLG% = POWER.

Good LD% + low SLG% = something else.

Now sure, you can factor luck into this a little bit. Can someone tell me what the average BABIP is in the major leagues? I think I've read it's around .300. I actually have a point to this, but I am still trying to put it together.

I'm curious what the correlation is between LD% and various contact measures. It seems odd to me that a guy would have trouble making contact, but that he would square the ball up well when he does. I would think that those are borne of the same basic hand-eye skill.

We appear to be conflating the issues of contact ability and power. To Doug's point however, line drives tend to result in a higher SLG% than any other type of batted ball.

[TRF]

I think the problem is with the stat itself. the definition of a line drive does not include the force or speed of the ball after it is hit, but rather the plane only.

[M2]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

All I am saying is that his slugging right now is likely a whole lot stronger in every other league in the minors than it appears in the FSL. I don't think he will ever slug .500, but I don't think .450 is out of the question in his prime either, especially given GABP. Its also interesting to note that once he gets out of Sarasota he has a .900 OPS on the year and a .308/.430/.470 line. He isn't tearing the ball up with that .470 slugging, but the ballpark certainly is doing its share of damage.

I gave you his comps in the SL, they aren't very compelling.

He certainly is struggling at home this season, the only problem is that's one of the better hitting parks in the league. Meanwhile Francisco is thriving in Sarasota and struggling on the road. Heisey's even-steven. My suggestion in such cases is go with the largest set of numbers and avoid reading too many tea leaves.

As for .450 in the future. Sure, it could happen. So could .350. The larger question is whether the chances of him reaching .450 in the majors (which would probably necessitate .500 in AA or AAA) are good enough to hold onto him if he can fetch you something you like in trade right now.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by M2

I gave you his comps in the SL, they aren't very compelling.

Except that there is nothing to make those comps with other than they are the 30th in the SL in slugging. Thats not a very good comparison to me.

[M2]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Except that there is nothing to make those comps with other than they are the 30th in the SL in slugging. Thats not a very good comparison to me.

30th is as 30th does. It's not very exciting stuff. If you want to argue that Stubbs is suffering some major FSL SLG discount, then there's 29 guys ahead of him (not counting a whole heap of non-qualifiers on top of that). If there's a forklift, Stubbs isn't the only guy who'd be getting a ride. Stubbs is not relatively strong compared to his peers in the league and others in his relative position in other leagues aren't having particularly good seasons either.

[cincyinco]

I think M2 hit a nail on the head with the term relative to his peers. What us his slg rate relative to league average? We should be viewing his stats compared to league averages this year. Then take into account age relative to league.

I'm in the camp that thinks its way to early to draw a conclusion as to what we have in stubbs, but I think we're glossing over some telling stuff by going round and round about slg and line drive rates.

[lollipopcurve]

doug, he hasn't produced. period. SLG tells the story.

So now SLG tells us all we need to know about Stubbs? Classic case of fixating on a player's weakness to all but erase him as a prospect, in my opinion.....

Beyond the fact that Stubbs will offer the Reds a superior defensive centerfielder -- routinely ignored -- why don't we acknowledge that his speed is an important asset in his offensive game?

Isn't it about "base acquisition"? Why not look at SLG + SB - CS? With 22 steals and 7 CS, this adds 15 bases to Stubbs' production.

Per my calculations, this puts Stubbs at .475. Relative to his FSL peers' production using the same formula, this puts him at about 9th in the league.

Seems a more complete way of looking at how productive a guy is offensively.

[IslandRed]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Isn't it about "base acquisition"? Why not look at SLG + SB - CS? With 22 steals and 7 CS, this adds 15 bases to Stubbs' production.

Well, now you're getting into stolen-base break-even theory. Be careful. :

[membengal]

His OPS today is at .797.

[lollipopcurve]

Well, now you're getting into stolen-base break-even theory. Be careful.

Ah yes -- this is true. Never mind.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by membengal

His OPS today is at .797.

The average OPS for a center fielder in the Major Leagues is usually around .750 or so.

BUST :

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by TRF

You could have stopped at "He has power..."

Good LD% + high SLG% = POWER.

Good LD% + low SLG% = something else.

Now sure, you can factor luck into this a little bit. Can someone tell me what the average BABIP is in the major leagues? I think I've read it's around .300. I actually have a point to this, but I am still trying to put it together.

Stubbs produced a Line Drive rate of 13% in 2007 and this season it's 26%. The improvement in LD rate hasn't translated at all to an improvement in IsoP. In fact, it's dropped a few points (.151 to .142). That doesn't reflect anything resembling "raw power" for an A-Ball player who'll be 24 years old in October.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

The average OPS for a center fielder in the Major Leagues is usually around .750 or so.

BUST :

Remind me again which league the Sarasota Reds are in? I don't remember them playing the Cubs.

Yes, he has a .797 OPS right now. That's a great number. However it's being driven by a torrid April. May and June have been beyond bad. .612 for may, .683 (albeit climbing) for June.

Maybe Stubbs isn't a bust yet, but he's certainly on the bus to bustville.