Drew Stubbs....

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by TRF

Remind me again which league the Sarasota Reds are in? I don't remember them playing the Cubs.

Yes, he has a .797 OPS right now. That's a great number. However it's being driven by a torrid April. May and June have been beyond bad. .612 for may, .683 (albeit climbing) for June.

Maybe Stubbs isn't a bust yet, but he's certainly on the bus to bustville.

Stubbs OPS in June is .875.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by IslandRed

Well, now you're getting into stolen-base break-even theory. Be careful. :

His SB% this year has been great while last year he was among the worst in the MWL. This could have been due to his "injury", or he could have progressed. I think we need more than 2.5 months to say he is now the next Rickey Henderson.

And that's part of Stubbs problem from an evaluation standpoint. Things we know:

1. He's old for his level.
2. He has contact issues, a high K rate, and little to know power.
3. He hasn't produced well compared to other Reds draft choices from the same year.
4. OBP + speed are his best offensive weapons yet he resists the leadoff position which is best suited for his skillset.
5. He's NOT a guy you want in the middle of the order.

He's a younger version of Chris Dickerson minus the power but with a little more OBP. Defensively they are likely a wash. That's 4th or 5th OF territory right there.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Stubbs OPS in June is .875.

Not according to minorleaguesplits.com, but I don't know how often they update their site.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by TRF

Not according to minorleaguesplits.com

minorleaguesplits is either wrong or doesn't update very often.

Stubbs is OPSing .875 in June.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...pbp&pid=453211

[TRF]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

minorleaguesplits is either wrong or doesn't update very often.

Stubbs is OPSing .875 in June.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...pbp&pid=453211

They appear to be 11 AB's behind. He's turned it on a bit since the ASG.

In fact that OPS being where it is, is the direct result of his last three games. prior to the ASB it was .683.

I hope the ASG did something for him, even if I feel it's a temporary boost. Nothing in his carrer to date suggests he can sustain an OPS above .750.

[Screwball]

Originally Posted by TRF

Nothing in his carrer to date suggests he can sustain an OPS above .750.

Except for this year, when he's OPSing .798 in a pitcher's league.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

His SB% this year has been great while last year he was among the worst in the MWL. This could have been due to his "injury", or he could have progressed. I think we need more than 2.5 months to say he is now the next Rickey Henderson.

"injury"? You put that like there is some type of questioning that he was really hurt. The guy had a well documented injury last year and a surgery in the offseason to fix it. There is no "injury", the guy was injured.

[*]OBP + speed are his best offensive weapons yet he resists the leadoff position which is best suited for his skillset.

Not really. The skillset for most leadoff hitters is make tons of contact, strikeout very seldom, get on base a lot and for most people, be fast. Drew does about half of that. You generally ask your leadoff guy to take pitches.... Stubbs has contact issues, he should never take pitches in the zone becuase he might not hit the other ones in the zone. He isn't an ideal leadoff man and his skill set isn't that of a leadoff man.

He's a younger version of Chris Dickerson minus the power but with a little more OBP. Defensively they are likely a wash. That's 4th or 5th OF territory right there.

Not quite. Dickerson, albeit a similar skillset lacks one thing that Stubbs has. Bat speed. Dickerson doesn't have it and its why he will never be a starter in the major leagues. The rest of their games compare pretty well, but its one reason you can't just look at the numbers and make comparisons.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by TRF

I hope the ASG did something for him, even if I feel it's a temporary boost.

It didn't do anything for him, he just continues to do what he has done all season and the hits are falling for him again. High walk rate + high line drive rate even with a 24% strikeout rate is going to lead to good numbers. He has been doing that all year long and as long as he continues, his numbers are going to keep rising.

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Not really. The skillset for most leadoff hitters is make tons of contact, strikeout very seldom, get on base a lot and for most people, be fast. Drew does about half of that. You generally ask your leadoff guy to take pitches.... Stubbs has contact issues, he should never take pitches in the zone becuase he might not hit the other ones in the zone. He isn't an ideal leadoff man and his skill set isn't that of a leadoff man.

Higher K rates make for poor leadoff hitters? Who's been telling you this stuff? I'd really like to know because it's just plain wrong on both sabermetric and intuitive levels.

If there was ever a lineup position where K rates matter the least, it's when we know the hitter is going to come to the plate at least once a game without a runner on base. And considering that the hitters immediately preceeding an NL leadoff hitter are #7, #8, and the Pitcher, it's going to be a lot more than once most of the time.

Without ducks on the pond, any miniscule advantage to BIP Out events versus K's becomes completely moot so it's the perfect place to put a high IsoD/high K rate/Low IsoP hitter if he has enough OBP and enough speed to steal a good number of bases at a high enough rate. And frankly, if we assume Stubbs will steal a good number of bases at a high enough rate to be effective, placing him lower in the order will most likely suppress his value.

As for the idea that Stubbs shouldn't take any strikes, no player does, will, or should swing at every single Strike he sees because there's a heaping helping of Strikes no one can do anything with. Working deep in counts while seeing a lot of pitches is what helps Stubbs produce a high IsoD in the first place- which also happens to be the only primary offensive skill set he has that may allow him to project as something more than a 5th OF/Defensive Replacement type.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by SteelSD

Higher K rates make for poor leadoff hitters? Who's been telling you this stuff? I'd really like to know because it's just plain wrong on both sabermetric and intuitive levels.

If there was ever a lineup position where K rates matter the least, it's when we know the hitter is going to come to the plate at least once a game without a runner on base. And considering that the hitters immediately preceeding an NL leadoff hitter are #7, #8, and the Pitcher, it's going to be a lot more than once most of the time.

Without ducks on the pond, any miniscule advantage to BIP Out events versus K's becomes completely moot so it's the perfect place to put a high IsoD/high K rate/Low IsoP hitter if he has enough OBP and enough speed to steal a good number of bases at a high enough rate. And frankly, if we assume Stubbs will steal a good number of bases at a high enough rate to be effective, placing him lower in the order will most likely suppress his value.

As for the idea that Stubbs shouldn't take any strikes, no player does, will, or should swing at every single Strike he sees because there's a heaping helping of Strikes no one can do anything with. Working deep in counts while seeing a lot of pitches is what helps Stubbs produce a high IsoD in the first place- which also happens to be the only primary offensive skill set he has that may allow him to project as something more than a 5th OF/Defensive Replacement type.

Doesn't that last part contradict the 1st part of your argument? Not trying to be a smart-ellic but doesn't the inability to make consistent contact make you a less reliable guy to take alot of pitches and still get on base at a decent clip. Most good leadoff men seem to have the innate ability to foul off pitches with 2 strikes that they can't do anything with. I mean it stands to reason that if you have a problem making contact consistently, you are not going to get on base consistently.

[SteelSD]

Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo

Doesn't that last part contradict the 1st part of your argument? Not trying to be a smart-ellic but doesn't the inability to make consistent contact make you a less reliable guy to take alot of pitches and still get on base at a decent clip. Most good leadoff men seem to have the innate ability to foul off pitches with 2 strikes that they can't do anything with. I mean it stands to reason that if you have a problem making contact consistently, you are not going to get on base consistently.

No, the last part doesn't at all contradict the first part. Both you and doug appear to be working off a "template" for a leadoff hitter that doesn't necessarily make for a good leadoff hitter.

[Betterread]

Originally Posted by SteelSD

No, the last part doesn't at all contradict the first part. Both you and doug appear to be working off a "template" for a leadoff hitter that doesn't necessarily make for a good leadoff hitter.

Stubbs has improved his OBP to a solid 380+. That's a good leadoff hitter statistic. He is displaying solid development this year in that area and in his contact rates. He is striking out less and making more contact.
And Stubbs is a ballplayer, not a "template". That's a poor description of a person and is revealing of the descriptor's sense of humanity and self-respect.

[Mario-Rijo]

Originally Posted by SteelSD

No, the last part doesn't at all contradict the first part. Both you and doug appear to be working off a "template" for a leadoff hitter that doesn't necessarily make for a good leadoff hitter.

So there is no template in your opinion? Or the actual template for a leadoff hitter doesn't have to be a guy who is able to make consistent contact?

What in your opinion then constitutes as a good leadoff hitter? Again don't take this as snarky, I just don't understand where you are coming from on this.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by SteelSD

Higher K rates make for poor leadoff hitters? Who's been telling you this stuff? I'd really like to know because it's just plain wrong on both sabermetric and intuitive levels.

Well how about, no manager in baseball is going to put a high strikeout guy in the leadoff spot because thats just not how they work? Regardless of how we think it should be, its not going to happen unless you have Dusty Baker managing your team.... and well, fortunately we do. That said, Drew Stubbs seems to struggle big time from the leadoff spot for whatever reason and when he is outside of it he seems to hit much better. Some guys just have their quirks about their game and Stubbs seems to be the guy who just can't hit in the leadoff spot.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by TRF

Remind me again which league the Sarasota Reds are in? I don't remember them playing the Cubs.

Yes, he has a .797 OPS right now. That's a great number. However it's being driven by a torrid April. May and June have been beyond bad. .612 for may, .683 (albeit climbing) for June.

Maybe Stubbs isn't a bust yet, but he's certainly on the bus to bustville.

The Sarasota Reds are in the FSL. The average age for both hitters and pitchers in the FSL is 23 years old. The average OPS for a center fielder in the FSL is noticeably lower than in MLB. Therefore, relatively, bringing up Stubbs' league makes his performance seem more impressive.

If you take out Stubbs' worst month and Stubbs' best month this year, his OPS is even higher (.849, according to minorleaguesplits.com), so I don't know what you're trying to accomplish with bringing that up.

When Stubbs was drafted, like Lincecum, he was regarded as a special player. Part of what was unique about him was his unusually-low contact rate and not letting that prevent him from being a high-quality player. I agree that making less contact decreases the likelihood of being an effective hitter in the Major Leagues, but Stubbs is a very different set of circumstances, and there may have never been anyone to take the path he has been on (in regards to his age, level, etc.) and to continue that to being an above-average Major League player. If he manages to do that, there may never be anyone like him ever again.