Drew Stubbs....

[Redman15]

Originally Posted by bowles8

I've heard a rumor that Stubbs may get moved up to Chatty this weekend...Anyone else heard this????

Reds sign a free agent outfielder and assign him to Chattanooga.

Collaro, a 2007 Southern League All-Star for Birmingham, split time between Birmingham (AA) and Charlotte (AAA) in the White Sox organization this year. In 2008, he hit a collective .238 with six homers and 21 RBIs between the two levels. In 2007, he also split time between Birmingham and Charlotte, where he hits .263 with 33 doubles, 23 homers, and 80 RBIs on the season.

[M2]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

While they aren't all created equally, his line drive rate is awfully high if he isn't squaring it up. Stubbs HR total tells me he is in the FSL. While I don't think the guy is going to be lighting up the HR charts, I think he would probably have 3 times as many HR if he were in Chattanooga where the balls seems to travel just a little bit more. We will find out soon enough though, as I don't think its going to be much longer until Stubbs finds his way to Chattanooga. There are several guys down there I have contact with that see about 90% of the home games who can tell us how he is doing outside of the box score.

Weak flares count as line drives too.

Jay Bruce hit HRs in the FSL. Chris Valaika hit HRs in the FSL. Juan Francisco and Todd Frazier are hitting HRs in the FSL. And let's be honest, 3x the HR total for Stubbs after 57 games would be a fairly pedestrian total for 23-year-old in A ball.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by M2

Weak flares count as line drives too.

Jay Bruce hit HRs in the FSL. Chris Valaika hit HRs in the FSL. Juan Francisco and Todd Frazier are hitting HRs in the FSL. And let's be honest, 3x the HR total for Stubbs after 57 games would be a fairly pedestrian total for 23-year-old in A ball.

Weak flares count as line drives too?

[M2]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Weak flares count as line drives too?

They're not grounders. They're not flyballs. They're not popups or foulouts. If it's a weak flare that gets snagged by an IF, but generally gets there on a line, that's a line drive. These "contact type" systems are woefully inadequate and are based on the exact type of subjective inaccuracy that made classic defensive zone rating systems a complete failure.

[camisadelgolf]

2008 minor leagues
Drew Stubbs' BB/K ratio: 42/67
Jay Bruce's BB/K ratio: 12/45

[TRF]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

2008 minor leagues
Drew Stubbs' BB/K ratio: 42/67
Jay Bruce's BB/K ratio: 12/45

too bad he has trouble making contact. I'm thrilled he won the ASG MVP, but realistically, he's got a leadoff hitter's skillset: good OBP, speed, but he struggles in the leadoff role. he has little to no power, and he struggles to make contact. He lays off bad pitches, but can't seem to hit good pitches. He's got tremendous holes in his offensive game, but is seemingly very good defensively.

I'd promote him to Chatt just to see if the OBP can be maintained against better pitchers.

[membengal]

Jacoby Ellsbury at age 22 split his year between A+ and AA:

A+ stats (244 at bats): .299/.379/.418 OPS .797 4 homeruns 7 doubles 5 triples 25 SB with 9 CS

AA stats: (198 at bats): .308/.387/.434 OPS .821 3 homeruns 10 doubles 3 triples 16 SB with 8 CS

For comparison's sake:

Stubbs A+ stats (225 at bats): .258/.378/.396 OPS .774 3 homeruns 14 doubles 4 triples 21 SB with 6 CS

Ellsbury made better contact that year, Stubbs has shown, oddly enough, a better batting eye, in terms of drawing a walk. All that thrown into a blender, and Stubbs is having a season not unlike that of Ellsbury when he was at the same level. The difference? One year of age.

So, serious question: is that one year of age really enough to legitimize the undercurrent of raw hostility and vitriol that has been directed at Stubbs by a bunch of folks on this board?

Again, taking the long view, I see a guy who is progressing as he moves up the ladder. He will need to continue to make improvements if he is going to make an impact at the major league level, but I see no reason why we can't realistically hope that he will. He looks ready for a AA trial to me, and if he washes out there, so be it. But I bet he won't. And I really want his glove one step closer to Cincy. I hope he moves up. Soon.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Originally Posted by membengal

Jacoby Ellsbury at age 22 split his year between A+ and AA:

A+ stats (244 at bats): .299/.379/.418 OPS .797 4 homeruns 7 doubles 5 triples 25 SB with 9 CS

AA stats: (198 at bats): .308/.387/.434 OPS .821 3 homeruns 10 doubles 3 triples 16 SB with 8 CS

For comparison's sake:

Stubbs A+ stats (225 at bats): .258/.378/.396 OPS .774 3 homeruns 14 doubles 4 triples 21 SB with 6 CS

Ellsbury made better contact that year, Stubbs has shown, oddly enough, a better batting eye, in terms of drawing a walk. All that thrown into a blender, and Stubbs is having a season not unlike that of Ellsbury when he was at the same level. The difference? One year of age.

So, serious question: is that one year of age really enough to legitimize the undercurrent of raw hostility and vitriol that has been directed at Stubbs by a bunch of folks on this board?

Again, taking the long view, I see a guy who is progressing as he moves up the ladder. He will need to continue to make improvements if he is going to make an impact at the major league level, but I see no reason why we can't realistically hope that he will. He looks ready for a AA trial to me, and if he washes out there, so be it. But I bet he won't. And I really want his glove one step closer to Cincy. I hope he moves up. Soon.

Good post.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by membengal

Jacoby Ellsbury at age 22 split his year between A+ and AA:

A+ stats (244 at bats): .299/.379/.418 OPS .797 4 homeruns 7 doubles 5 triples 25 SB with 9 CS

AA stats: (198 at bats): .308/.387/.434 OPS .821 3 homeruns 10 doubles 3 triples 16 SB with 8 CS

For comparison's sake:

Stubbs A+ stats (225 at bats): .258/.378/.396 OPS .774 3 homeruns 14 doubles 4 triples 21 SB with 6 CS

Ellsbury made better contact that year, Stubbs has shown, oddly enough, a better batting eye, in terms of drawing a walk. All that thrown into a blender, and Stubbs is having a season not unlike that of Ellsbury when he was at the same level. The difference? One year of age.

So, serious question: is that one year of age really enough to legitimize the undercurrent of raw hostility and vitriol that has been directed at Stubbs by a bunch of folks on this board?

Again, taking the long view, I see a guy who is progressing as he moves up the ladder. He will need to continue to make improvements if he is going to make an impact at the major league level, but I see no reason why we can't realistically hope that he will. He looks ready for a AA trial to me, and if he washes out there, so be it. But I bet he won't. And I really want his glove one step closer to Cincy. I hope he moves up. Soon.

I think the age thing frustrates people a lot, but I think even more than that is where Stubbs was picked in the draft. Ellsbury was picked way late. Stubbs was a top 10 draft pick (or that is where he was drafted). Was Stubbs really the best pick that early in the draft?

[flyer85]

2 things on the Stubbs/Ellsbury comparison
1) Stubbs is a year older and it does make a difference
2) Stubbs has a MUCH HIGHER K rate than Ellsbury(Stubbs 1K per ~3.5ABs , Ellsbury 1K per ~8.5ABS). That is the big difference between the two and the K rate shows it. Stubbs has holes than can be exploited and the closer he gets to the majors the better pitchers will be able to exploit it.

Ellsbury doesn't have the hole and was simply refining his skill as hitter. Stubbs has to find a way to close his hole while refining his skill as a hitter.

Can Stubbs do it? Sure but he is in no way on the same path as Ellsbury.

BTW, Ellsbury was the 23rd overall pick in the 2005 draft. The stuff I read about Stubbs said in most years his skill set would have lent to his being a late first round draft pick.

[lollipopcurve]

BTW, Ellsbury was the 23rd overall pick in the 2005 draft. The stuff I read about Stubbs said in most years his skill set would have lent to his being a late first round draft pick.

The Stubbs draft (2006) was routinely described as weak -- well before the draft took place. 2005 -- the year Ellsbury went -- looks to have been the strongest in quite a while. You can't compare the two players based on their draft position alone. Similarly, pronouncements about Stubbs being a bust because he was "a top 10 pick" fail to account for the talent pool he was in. All first rounds are far from the same.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

All first rounds are far from the same.

which was my point, even though Ellsbury was drafted later, the 2005 draft was loaded while the 2006 was not. The talent level of the two(from a draft standpoint) was probably roughly equivalent even though they were picked 16 spots apart.

[lollipopcurve]

which was my point, even though Ellsbury was drafted later, the 2005 draft was loaded while the 2006 was not. The talent level of the two(from a draft standpoint) was probably roughly equivalent even though they were picked 16 spots apart.

I'm agreeing with you...

[TRF]

Originally Posted by membengal

Jacoby Ellsbury at age 22 split his year between A+ and AA:

A+ stats (244 at bats): .299/.379/.418 OPS .797 4 homeruns 7 doubles 5 triples 25 SB with 9 CS

AA stats: (198 at bats): .308/.387/.434 OPS .821 3 homeruns 10 doubles 3 triples 16 SB with 8 CS

For comparison's sake:

Stubbs A+ stats (225 at bats): .258/.378/.396 OPS .774 3 homeruns 14 doubles 4 triples 21 SB with 6 CS

Ellsbury made better contact that year, Stubbs has shown, oddly enough, a better batting eye, in terms of drawing a walk. All that thrown into a blender, and Stubbs is having a season not unlike that of Ellsbury when he was at the same level. The difference? One year of age.

So, serious question: is that one year of age really enough to legitimize the undercurrent of raw hostility and vitriol that has been directed at Stubbs by a bunch of folks on this board?

Again, taking the long view, I see a guy who is progressing as he moves up the ladder. He will need to continue to make improvements if he is going to make an impact at the major league level, but I see no reason why we can't realistically hope that he will. He looks ready for a AA trial to me, and if he washes out there, so be it. But I bet he won't. And I really want his glove one step closer to Cincy. I hope he moves up. Soon.

Ellsbury at Low A at age 21: .317BA .418OBP .432SLG .850OPS

Drew Stubbs at Low A at age 22: .270BA .364OBP .421SLG .785OPS

The difference between the two is history at Low A, Ellsbury skipped Rookie ball altogether, and sample size at High A. Stubbs OPS for May and June combined is under .700. Can he turn it around? maybe, but I'd promote him to AA quick, hope he catches fire and package him before he turns back into the free swinging, no contact pumpkin he is.

[membengal]

So you talk about sample size and ignore Stubbs' April? What kind of weird cherry-picking is that? On top of that, I am not all that bummed about a .364 OBP from Stubbs (and I am carefully going to stay away from the long argued turf-toe issue with regard to power) at his Dayton year.

I compared the entirety of Stubbs' High A to Ellsbury's. I am pretty damn sure I could pick out cold stretches for Ellsbury if I wanted to in his months at high A...

Again, I am by no means prepping my August in 2041 for Stubb's Hall of Fame induction speech, but I see no reason not to take a little joy at knowing that Stubbs is NOT necessarily as bad as he has been made out to be by a lot of this board. In fact, he actually has quite a nice little skill set going...