Drew Stubbs....

[princeton]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Ridiculous. Not only did the drafting of Stubbs, in and of itself, have nothing to do with Castellini wanting Jocketty over Krivsky, it was Chris Buckley who made the pick. All very obvious.

had Lincecum been drafted, Krivsky's still employed. Obviously.

[flyer85]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Stubbs' skill set makes him a bit unusual. .

true, usually high first round picks don't have a lot of people questioning their ability to hit. Position players selected early almost always are superior hitters ... because if you can hit they will find you a spot to play. Instead Stubbs was selected because he was an excellent athlete, known to be a good defensive player with a decent eye at the plate. His only question mark was his ability to hit moving forward, which is a huge question mark.

To this point his rate of advancement and performance have done little to allay the fear that he will not hit enough to be an everyday player at the major league level. He isn't a bust yet but the jury is still out.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by flyer85

If Stubbs, as a college player, was not expected to move quickly it is a sure sign he should not have been drafted that high.

Exactly. While I appreciate Doug's point that timetables set by fans aren't really valid, I find it impossible to believe that any team would draft a college player in the top 10 and expect him to be on the 4 year plan.

That said, people are a bit liberal with the term "bust". Stubbs isn't done. It's not clear that he's going to fail. Is he behind, yes. Are there still big questions about his game, sure. But he's not a bust. Chris Gruler, that's a bust. Brandon Larson, that's a bust. Drew Stubbs is a prospect. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

[lollipopcurve]

had Lincecum been drafted, Krivsky's still employed. Obviously.

And so Stubbs' hands have Krivsky's blood on them? Don't know about you, but I prefer to discuss players with an air of fairness, without little guilt-by-association slights masked as cogent analysis.

[lollipopcurve]

Exactly. While I appreciate Doug's point that timetables set by fans aren't really valid, I find it impossible to believe that any team would draft a college player in the top 10 and expect him to be on the 4 year plan.

The 2006 crop was weak -- the observation has been made time after time after time, here and elsewhere. Not all top 10s are equal. Not all college players are equal. The desperate search for absolutes when it comes to the draft continues.......

Stubbs was universally regarded as one of the top 2 college hitters in the 06 crop -- Longoria was the other. After those two went off the board, only Tyler Colvin and Matt Antonelli (both struggling in the upper minors now) were first rounders. College hittrs tend to be the safest 1st round picks -- but that year was very, very thin. In my opinion, the Stubbs pick was a relatively safe one, if not, in hindsight, the best one.

[princeton]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

And so Stubbs' hands have Krivsky's blood on them? Don't know about you, but I prefer to discuss players with an air of fairness, without little guilt-by-association slights masked as cogent analysis.

I can't recall asking for a discussion with you. You seem to have inserted yourself

[lollipopcurve]

I can't recall asking for a discussion with you. You seem to have inserted yourself

Need I your permission to post?

[princeton]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Need I your permission to post?

so you're saying "I want to discuss with you the fact the I don't want to discuss this in the way that you are discussing it"

dude, I'm already married.

[lollipopcurve]

so you're saying "I want to discuss with you the fact the I don't want to discuss this in the way that you are discussing it"

dude, I'm already married.

So tiresome. I was posting about Stubbs... you made it personal.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I just want something cleared up: Drew Stubbs plays well-above average defense at a defense-first position, has blazing speed, and his OBP is consistently over .360 (and is currently at .372 in a very-pitcher-friendly league, despite his unlucky BABIP), and he's a bust?

If your answer is 'yes', if it weren't for Lincecum, would he still be a bust?

Incomplete description.

Add in contact issues, an almost complete lack of power, an awful K rate and a SB% that has been good to great this year, but awful last year.

The question about his OBP and contact issues are can he maintain that OBP against better competition? If a pitcher KNOWS he can't hit, why throw him junk outside the zone?

And can we stop saying a minor leaguer has GG defense? I know this wasn't you, you correctly described him as well-above average.

[lollipopcurve]

The question about his OBP and contact issues are can he maintain that OBP against better competition?

So far, so good. Maybe not so far, so great, but good enough. So why can't we accept that he's making progress? It reminds me of how Hamilton was analyzed here -- first it was early in spring training: "Wait till he starts seeing breaking stuff." Then it was, "Wait till we get late in spring training." Then, "Wait till he gets around the league and they develop a book on him," and "It's only 100/200 ABs (pick a number)." Sure, Stubbs is nowhere near tearing it up like Hamilton was -- but he's holding ground against stiffer competition in a pitcher's league. Many forecast he would be exposed in the FSL, but that hasn't happened. Now come the calls for a "true reckoning" in the Southern League. It'll go on and on.......

[TRF]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

So far, so good. Maybe not so far, so great, but good enough. So why can't we accept that he's making progress? It reminds me of how Hamilton was analyzed here -- first it was early in spring training: "Wait till he starts seeing breaking stuff." Then it was, "Wait till we get late in spring training." Then, "Wait till he gets around the league and they develop a book on him," and "It's only 100/200 ABs (pick a number)." Sure, Stubbs is nowhere near tearing it up like Hamilton was -- but he's holding ground against stiffer competition in a pitcher's league. Many forecast he would be exposed in the FSL, but that hasn't happened. Now come the calls for a "true reckoning" in the Southern League. It'll go on and on.......

How much better might his OBP be if he could hit?

[lollipopcurve]

How much better might his OBP be if he could hit?

Stubbs is not going to be a high average guy, if that's what you mean by "hit." But I do think we can expect his power numbers to get better as moves up and plays in more hitter-friendly places -- including GAB.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by flyer85

If Stubbs, as a college player, was not expected to move quickly it is a sure sign he should not have been drafted that high.

Not exactly how I look at it. You should take the best player available. The BPA is the one you think will make the biggest impact WHEN they get to the majors, not the one who will make an impact the quickest. Thats how I look at the draft anyways. Now whether that is Stubbs or not is far from being told, but the assumption that a college player must move fast is a bit out there. While thats generally the accepted idea, everyone knew Stubbs would take time because of the raw abilities he had.

[TRF]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Not exactly how I look at it. You should take the best player available. The BPA is the one you think will make the biggest impact WHEN they get to the majors, not the one who will make an impact the quickest. Thats how I look at the draft anyways. Now whether that is Stubbs or not is far from being told, but the assumption that a college player must move fast is a bit out there. While thats generally the accepted idea, everyone knew Stubbs would take time because of the raw abilities he had.

again with the raw abilities.

that is a weak, weak excuse for his timeframe.